Merriman Market Analyst

Critical Reversal Dates

In every MMA Cycles Report, there is always a section titled Critical Reversal Dates. It then states, “Look for cycle turns in many markets within three trading days of the forthcoming critical reversal dates.” And then it lists various dates, with one, two, or three stars following that date. The number of stars refers to its historical consistency to primary cycles. The dates themselves are midpoints in time between the first and last signature of a “cluster” of signatures. In a cluster, no more than 6 calendar separate any two consecutive signatures.

Three, Two, or One Stars:

A date followed by three (3) stars means these periods have the highest probability of correlating to primary cycles (within three trading days) in various financial markets, according to historical studies involving geocosmic signatures as reported in The Gold Book: Geocosmic Correlations to Gold Price Cycles, and The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlation to trading Cycles. A two-star critical reversal date has a high correlation to half or full primary cycles, whereas a one-star has a greater correlation to major or half-primary cycle types. But one must know where a market is in terms of its primary cycle. If a primary cycle is not due, then even a three-star will not produce such a cycle. On the other hand, if a primary cycle is due, then even a one-star may produce it. Three star reversal dates have an 82% correlation to primary cycles in U.S. stock indices within three trading days.

Level 1, 2 and 3 Signatures:

Two or three-star critical reversal dates means there is at least one geocosmic signature nearby that is a “Level One” type. As reported in the two books mentioned above, a Level One signature has the highest correlation to a primary cycle within up to 12 trading days. The correlation to primary cycles is at least 66%. In order for a critical reversal date to merit three stars, there are usually at least two Level 1 type signatures within 4 calendar days of that date.

The Art of Forecasting Using Cycles and Geocosmic Studies

A common misconception about Financial Astrology, or Geocosmic Studies, is that these studies provide “fortune-telling” qualities. If one knows astrology, the misconception is that one knows the future, and can accurately predict ahead of time whether a particular date will be a high or a low. Astrology, or Geocosmic Studies, by itself, does not have that capability, contrary to the wishes of many. What they do provide is a high degree of accuracy in pinpointing a reversal to the trend that is in effect going into certain dates.

The key words in the above sentence are trend – and reversal of trend. Geocosmics alone cannot tell you what the trend is. And when a critical reversal hits, you never know whether the reversal will be a correction (retracement) to the longer-term trend that underlies the market, or the start of an entirely new underlying trend (i.e. a “primary thrust” in a new direction).

To understand the underlying trend to any market, one has to understand the nature of cycles, and the patterns that form within each cycle. For this, one has to understand that within every cycle, are smaller cycles, or “phases.” This is the only understanding (that I know of) that provides the ability to accurately forecast whether a future critical reversal date is more likely to be a crest or a trough.

In the study of any cycle, the first “phase” is most likely to be bullish, and the last phase is most likely to be bearish. Please refer to Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics, for full explanation.

What does this mean? Well, in trend analysis, there are three characteristics to bull and bear markets. In bull markets, the crest of a cycle will usually be higher than the crest of the previous cycle of the same type. The low (trough) will be higher too (i.e. the lowest prices will be the start of a cycle, not its end). And the crest will usually occur in the second half of the cycle (i.e. right translation pattern). In a bear market, the crest of the cycle will usually be lower than the crest of the previous cycle of the same type. The low (trough) will be lower too (i.e. the lowest price in a bear market cycle will always be at its end, not at the beginning). And the crest will usually occur in the first half of the cycle (left translation).

There are times when all three of these characteristics fail to be present in a cycle. In that case, the determining factor is always the end of the cycle. Was the price at the end higher, or lower, than the beginning? If lower, it is a bear market cycle, even if the pattern was right translation, and the crest was higher than the previous cycle of the same type.

Forecasting the future of market, therefore, is dependent on how prices perform within any cycle, or within any phase of a cycle (i.e. within a sub-cycle of a greater cycle). For instance, we may think that an 18-year cycle is bearish – that prices are coming down into an 18-year cycle trough in say, 2008-2011. If so, all the phases of the next lesser degree still to go in that cycle should have bearish characteristics. Each 4-year cycle should be lower in price than the crest of the prior 4-year cycle. The end of the 4-year cycle should be lower in price than the start of the 4-year cycle. The pattern of the 4-year cycle should be left translation (highest price early or center of cycle). When you start seeing these patterns fail, then you have to change your outlook from bearish to bullish. For instance, if the 4-year cycle starts to take out the crest of the prior 4-year cycle, this is a warning that the “phase” is turning bullish when it should be bearish. If the 4-year cycle starts exhibiting right translation – making higher prices in the second half of the cycle – this too is a sign that the market is turning bullish, that the 18-year cycle is bullish, not bearish. It is not a guarantee that the market has changed to bullish, but the fundamental characteristics of the market is starting to exhibit bullish characteristics when it should be exhibiting bearish ones, and therefore one has to be aware that his prior analysis must likewise change. Of course, the final outcome is not decided until the cycle ends. That is the final confirmation. If prices fall below the start of the cycle, then it is fully determined that the 4-year cycle is bearish, and the 18-year cycle is indeed still unfolding. But until it does that, the pattern of new highs of consecutive sub-cycles (of the same cycle type) and a “right translation pattern,” mean the evidence is in favor of the longer-term cycle being bullish.

It would be wonderful if market analysis and market timing were an exact science. It would be wonderful if geocosmic studies would be akin to fortune-telling. It would be wonderful if someone knew exactly what the future holds for stocks and commodities. But alas, market analysis and market timing is an ever-evolving work, dependent upon the ever changing conditions and performance of the market. Our analysis is a work in probabilities, not inevitabilities. We will always share our understanding of where we are in a cycle, and what we think the projection of that cycle is telling us about the future direction of market prices. But when the structure of a cycle starts to change that projection, we will tell you that too. It doesn’t mean we are changing our mind willy-nilly. It means the market is changing the internal structure of its cycle, and we are adjusting out analysis to reflect that the change in the market itself. To advise you of this internal change, and what it means to the future of the market… that’s a duty we take seriously as your market analyst. And the fact is that there are many occasions where we know the future of the market is not yet decided – it can take one of several courses. For us to outline those possible scenarios – within the context of cycles understanding – that too is our duty. It doesn’t mean we don’t know what is going to happen (we don’t always know)… it means it is not yet decided, that the market has not yet decided what it is going to do (according to the studies we analyze).

Again, our studies involve probabilities. Market analysis is an art of identifying probabilities, and hence opportunities that have a high probability of being profitable, based on an understanding of market patterns within any given cycle. It is not fortune-telling. Although the high degree of accuracy can make it appear to be so. But in truth, there are many times that the outcome is not decided as we write our reports.