MMA Weekly Comments and Trade Recommendations

for Week 05-01-2006

Comments:

Please take a moment to view my weekly geocosmic comments on the stock market, at http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm.  Or, you can go to www.mmacycles.com, and then choose Weekly Preview. You can also go to www.stariq.com, and then look up “market week.” We are also pleased to announce that these weekly geocosmic comments are now available in German, at http://www.astrodata.com/shop.asp?action=weeklycontent&ccat=1&nav=45, or www.astrodata.ch. And they are now also available in Dutch at www.markettiming.nl. In Italian, go to http://www.armonics.it/. We are also pleased to announce that these weekly geocosmic comments are available in French on our own web site at www.mmacycles.com, and also in Japanese to our clients in Japan through JANet, Inc. It is a free service. Just go to http://www.astrology.jp/finance/index.html.

DJIA Cash

Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, which means it remains in neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Weekly support is 11,283-11,292. A close below 11,283 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 11,434-11,443. A close above 11,434 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone at 11,197-11,223 was broke. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 10,597-10,599.

This starts the 15^th week of the 13-21 week primary cycle, unless the low of April 17 was a 13-week primary cycle trough. I am more inclined to think that was a major cycle trough, and this will start the 2^nd week of the third 5-7 week major cycle. If correct, then once this crest is in (the last of this primary cycle), there should be a very sharp 2-5 week drop into the primary cycle trough, maybe around our critical reversal zone of June 7-19, as outlined in the forecasts for 2006 book. In the meantime, we are now entering the May 5 three-star critical reversal date (give or take one week, since it involves a long-term planetary pair cycle of Jupiter-Uranus). And we are entering our price target too for this crest given last week as, “We now have an MCP price target of 11,451.40 +/- 62.40 (or slightly higher even) for this third and probably final major cycle crest within this primary cycle.” But if that turns out to be the primary cycle crest, then also know that it may be the 50-week and 4-year cycle crest too, after which a 20+% decline to the 4-year cycle trough could commence, due August-December of this year.

SPM (June S&P):

Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Weekly support is 1303.60-1305.15. A close below 1303.60 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1325.10-1326.65. A close above 1326.65 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This begins the 12^th week of the 15-23 week primary cycle. Last week’s high of 1322 failed to make a new multi-year high like the DJIA did, so we could be setting up a case on intermarket bearish divergence (more obvious in the NDM contract). But until we take out last week’s low of 1300.50, we can’t assume we won’t make a new high coming into this week’s 3-star critical reversal zone (May 5). My outlook is the same as the DJIA. That is, look for a top within a few days of May 5, and aggressive traders can then look for an opportunity to sell short. On any move below 1286.70, the top will be confirmed.

NDM (June NASDAQ 100):

Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close down this week will downgrade to trend run down. Weekly support is 1690-1693. A close below 1690 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1731-1734. A close above 1734 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This starts the 8^th week of the 15-23 week primary cycle.  Last week’s low of 1697 was a re-test of the prior week’s major cycle low of 1686. If that double bottom breaks, the market will be in trouble. But if it holds, then we could still run up into the important May 5 reversal zone +/- 1 week, for those signatures are important to tech stocks. We are far off the recent highs now, whereas DJIA is making new multi-year highs. So a rally into late this week, early the following week, could result in a case of intermarket bearish divergence. As an aggressive trader, I would sell short if that happens. It’s “aggressive,” because it is going against the bullish trend. The trend doesn’t turn bearish until we take out a previous primary cycle trough (1652 in this index). But most traders (like us) won’t wait for that confirmation, right?

EUC (Euro Cash):

Last week’s close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 7^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1.2307 this week will downgrade it to neutral. Weekly support is 1.2425-1.2474. A close below 1.2425 this week is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.2730-1.2778. A weekly close above 1.2778 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Two bearish crossover zones are present at 1.3153-1.3222 and 1.3342-1.3467.  But another new bullish crossover zone has just formed at 1.2425-1.2474, to go along with other recent ones in effect at 1.2166-1.2189 and 1.2015-1.2040. Until these start breaking, the market is more bullish than bearish.

This begins the 25^th week of the 22-33 week primary cycle, and the 9^th week of a 9-14 week major cycle, and the 3^rd week of a 5-8 week trading cycle. Based on the chart of the Swiss Franc, which made a multi-month low on February 27, I am inclined to think that date was also the start of a newer primary cycle in the Euro too. It means the low of that date was a contracted 15-week primary cycle, which is not so unusual for the first primary cycle within a longer-term 4-year cycle.  As such, this may very well be the start of the 9^th week of a newer primary cycle.

The market is soaring now, which is consistent with a new bull market – with the early phase of a new 4-year cycle. As stated last week, “… (last week’s high) was 1.2394, which was a new high for this primary cycle. That’s a bullish “right translation” pattern for this primary cycle, indicating that the lows of last November were most likely 4-year cycle troughs, and a new bull market is in force. However, it is now late in the primary cycle, which implies a significant 2-8 week decline is still ahead before this primary cycle comes to an end, sometime in the next 9 weeks.” And then, “Since a 5-8 week trading cycle just formed, there can be higher prices yet before this decline begins. The MCP price target for this rally is 1.2511 +/- .0103. Since we have the Jupiter-Uranus trine “blow-off” signature on May 5, we could see that crest (or even higher) met within a week of May 5. For now, traders can remain long against a close below the new bullish crossover zone, looking the crest nearby to May 5. As we approach that date, traders can start looking for signs of a crest to sell into, in anticipation of a 2-8 week decline to the primary cycle trough, which could be 1.1800-1.2000, unless we exceed 1.2700 first.”

We are on track with those comments as far as making a crest of some sort around May 5, as the market reached 1.2635 last week. However, if we exceed 1.2700 by much, we could go all the way to one of the bearish crossover zones, or 1.2934 +/- .0153. Because we are not sure if this is the early part of a new primary cycle (9^th week), or the later part of an older one (24^th week), and because we have a huge reversal zone coming up May 5, +/- 1 week, traders who are long should think of taking some profits shortly. I would not recommend going short, except maybe as a very short-term possibility. I am more interested in buying a low that forms in the 9-14 week time band. If it is corrective – say only back to the 1.2350-1.2450 area, then this is a newer primary cycle and should be bought. If it is a more powerful correction – say 2-8 weeks, and takes prices back to 1.2050-1.2250, then this is the later phase of primary cycle, and I would still recommend buying that too. In my work, the 4-year cycle is in, and the Euro is in a new bull market, so our strategies are always to be bullish now, until we think this 4-year cycle is topping out. I do not expect to see the Euro trade below 1.2000 for the next two years. Of course I could be wrong, and things could change my outlook. But that is now my bias, as I think the Euro will start its move up to it current 4-year cycle crest, whose price target is 1.7057 +/- .1040, due in 2008-2009. That of course assumes it can close above the 1.3000-1.3600 major resistance zone for a possible double top. Any close below 1.2000 negates these projections.

EUM (June Euro):

The futures are essentially the same cycle labeling as the cash, so all we will give here are technical points of support and resistance. Last week’s close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 6^th time in 7 weeks, which means it is upgraded back to trend run up. A close below 1.2362 will downgrade it back to neutral. Weekly support is 1.2461-1.2503. A close below 1.2461 this week is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.2759-1.2801. A weekly close above 1.2801 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Another new bullish crossover zone has formed at 1.2466-1.2501. Others remain in effect at 1.2190-1.2298 and 1.2075-1.2119.

JYC (Dollar/Yen Cash):

Last week’s close was below weekly support again, which is bearish.  And the close was well below the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, which means this indicator is downgraded to on edge, trend run down. A close down this week will downgrade it further, and a close up will upgrade it back to neutral.  Weekly support is 1.1255-1.1292. A close below 1.1255 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.1487-1.1524. A weekly close above 1.1524 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Another new bearish crossover zone has formed at 1.1487-1.1601, to go along with another in effect at 1.1779-1.1803 and 1.1844-1.1982. Bullish crossover zones are also in effect at 1.0547-1.0606 and 1.1284-1.1287.

This begins the 34^th week of the 26-40 week primary cycle. It is also the 16^th week of the second 13-20 week half-primary cycle. We are thus in the time band in which both the half-primary and full primary cycle trough are due in the next 6 weeks, and prices are now starting to break down (in Dollar). As stated last week, “The Dollar topped out late the prior week at 1.1890, and closed near the lows of this past week at 1.1677. I think the trend is now down into the primary cycle trough, somewhere below 1.1600, but ideally down to an MCP price target zone of 1.1140 +/- .0120 (maybe even lower). If short the Dollar, stay short unless prices start to close above the new bearish crossover zone (1.1803).” Bingo! Last week’s low was well below 1.1600, down to 1.1364, and probably lower to go as we come into this week’s critical reversal zone. I think we could see the first bottom in the next two weeks – a primary cycle trough possibly. If not here, then in our June 7-19 time frame. Traders who are short the Dollar, long Yen, may look to take some profits in the next two weeks, but I wouldn’t get aggressive yet about reversing the position. I think the Dollar may be in trouble for a couple of years now.

JYM (June Yen):

Last week’s gap up and close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, which means it is upgraded to on edge, trend run up. A close up this week upgrades it further and a close down downgrades it to neutral. Weekly support is 8768-8787. A close below 8768 is bearish. A trade below and a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 8899-8918. A close above 8918 is bullish. A trade above and a close back below is a bearish trigger. A new bullish crossover zone has formed at 8663-8787, to go along with others that remain in effect at 8545-8588 and 8424-8564.

This starts the 22^nd or 24^th week of a 22-33 week primary cycle. It also starts the 7^th week of a 5-8 week trading cycle. As stated last week, “It is possible that the primary cycle bottomed early a couple of weeks ago at 8487. If so, this market will now skyrocket. But if that was only a contracted major cycle low, this rally may have difficulty getting above 8750.” Well, the market has skyrocketed, and so it looks like this is instead the 3^rd week of a new primary cycle. Also, as started last week, “My bias is that we could rally into May 5, +/- 3.” Here we are, coming up this week. If long, look to cover and take some profits during that time, if a high is still forming.

Euro/Yen Spread – Cash:

Last week’s low was below weekly support, and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. But the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 1^st time in 8 weeks, which means it is downgraded to neutral. A close above 1.4361 this week will upgrade it back to trend run up. Weekly support is 1.4215-1.4249. A close below 1.4215 is bearish, and a trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.4454-1.4487. A close above 1.4487 is bullish, but a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This starts the 16^th week of the 14-22 week primary cycle, and the 9^th week of the second 7-11 week half-primary cycle. I think this spread topped out a week ago, and may be falling to its primary cycle trough in the next 2-6 weeks. But we need a close below weekly support tom confirm my thoughts.

SFM (June Swiss Franc):

Last week’s close was above weekly resistance again, which is bullish. And the close was well above the weekly trend indicator point for the 5^th consecutive week, which means it is now in a trend run up. A close below 7891 this week downgrades it back to neutral. Wkly support is 7953-7983. A close below 7953 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 8181-8211. A close above 8211 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A new bullish crossover zone has just formed at 7942-7983 to go along with another at 7776-7829.

This starts the 24^th week of a 22-33 week primary cycle, and 9^th week of a 5-8 week trading cycle. But now I think that labeling has to be changed in lieu of the fat that we made a new high for this primary cycle. It looks like the low of March 10 was contracted 16-week primary cycle, and even 4-year cycle in the Swissy, and if so, this is now the 8^th week of a newer primary and longer-term cycle. I think we should go with this new labeling, which means we are also in the first 9-14 week major cycle phase. The crest of this major cycle could be realized this week as we approach the May 5 critical reversal date, followed by a pullback to that 9-14 week major cycle trough, perhaps into the June 7-19 reversal period. Friday’s gap up above 80 may now mean that 8000 is the new support level in this new 4-year cycle. Traders can look to capture some profits in the next 2 weeks, but be prepared to enter more positions form the long side on the decline to the 9-14 week major cycle trough. This market is looking very good longer-term now, and so we want to buy all corrective declines.

TYM (June T-Notes):

Last week’s low was below weekly support, and close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was still below the weekly trend point for the 5^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 105/21 this week will upgrade it to neutral. Weekly support is 104/31-105/01. A close below 104/31 is bearish. A trade below and a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 106/04-106/05. A close above 106/05 is bullish. A trade above and a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 107/02-107/03.

This starts the 26^th week of the 18-28 week primary cycle. We are also now entering the time band for the 6-year and 25-month cycle troughs, as well as the 8-month cycle low (ideally within 2 months of July 2006). Our target was below 106, and ideally even below 105, and we went to 104/29 last week, and closed with a bullish trigger. A close above weekly resistance this week would be a strong indicator that at least the primary cycle low has formed. And, given FRB Chair Ben Bernanke’s statement this week that the rises in rates could stop shortly, there is fundamental reason to think also that this could be the time for a new bull market to commence. We have a huge critical reversal zone now in effect, with a midpoint on May 5. I would expect the primary bottom to occur within 8 trading days of this, which means last Thursday’s low of 104/29 could have been it. A close above 106/04 will confirm that. But with the midpoint still ahead, it is also possible we could see a double bottom to it before the market rallies in earnest. Aggressive traders are encouraged to trade from the long side. Investors are again in advised to lock in longer term bonds and notes of say 2-5 years now, while yields are relatively high.

SN (July Soybeans):

Last week’s close was above weekly resistance, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2^nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to trend run up. Wkly support is 584-586. A close below 584-1/4 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 615-617. A close above 616-3/4 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 609-623, which held Friday’s rally to 614.

This starts the 3^rd week of a newer 15-21 week primary cycle. As stated last week, “If we can close above 590 this week, it looks good. Otherwise we may be readying for another decline. There is a new moon this Thursday. We could struggle into that.” Last week’s low of 582 was on Thursday’s new moon, and by Friday, prices soared to 614 intraday, before pulling back to close at 601. Still, Friday’s gap up day was impressive because it was a gap above a downward channel line, and that usually signals the start of a new bull market. The pull back of that channel line is now at 590-594. If it is truly bullish, the market should not have a weekly close below it for awhile. Additionally, the market should be able to close above a normal bear market corrective rally area of 609 +/- 10. The fact that July beans got there on Friday and then turned back is not so unusual on the first approach. But now let’s see if it can close above there by the time of the full moon on May 13. If it does, we could see 650 soon. Traders not long are encouraged to trade from the long side now against a close or trade back below 582, or a weekly close under 590.

WN (July Wheat):

Last week’s close was into weekly support, which is mostly bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 1^st time in 4 weeks, and it was a down week again, which means it remains neutral. A close above 366 will upgrade it to trend run up. Wkly support is 349-350. A close below 349-1/4 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 367-368. A close above 368-1/4 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 384-386.

This now starts the 6^th week of a 15-21 week primary cycle, unless last week’s low of 351 was a double bottom to complete an older 21-week primary cycle. As stated last week, “Prices are dropping into a 5-7 week major cycle trough time band. If correct, this decline should hold the 351 low of 5 weeks ago. If not, this primary cycle is turning bearish, or the labeling is wrong – it might be the end of an older primary cycle. The reversal date of May 5 is very important to Wheat too, so I would wait until we get closer to that date, and look to buy if it appears a major cycle trough is forming, above 351 (I don’t mind a double bottom at say 352-355).” Well, we may have gotten a double bottom indeed. If so, this market should soar to the upside now. But if we only get a modest rally into the end of this week or early the next (i.e. no more than 366 +/- 4), and then fall below 351, this is a bear market. I prefer taking the risk and trading from the long side with a stop-loss say just below 351.

GCM (June Gold):

Last week’s close was into weekly resistance, which is mostly bullish. And the close was still well above the weekly trend indicator point for the 6^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 624.70 this week downgrades it to neutral. Wkly support is 631.70-636.50. A close below 631.70 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 667.80-672.50. A close above 672.50 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 593.90-616.80, 571.30-574.50, and 563.40-565.30.

This starts the 8^th week of a newer 15-21 week primary cycle. Last week’s report stated, “We gapped up last week, and soared to 645 on Thursday, April 20, before falling all the way back to 607.50 a couple hours later. Still, the gap held (at 605.60), which means the bull market is still intact.” We went even higher this past week, to 658.20 on Tuesday, for another new 25+-year high.  There is still no sign this market has topped out. However, we are entering the middle part of a critical reversal zone that has “blow-off” themes to it (Jupiter-Uranus trine), on May 5, +/- one week. Once again, this means a top could form shortly. But will any decline break the gap area at 605.60? That’s major support now to any decline. It is possible that we could see a half primary cycle crest from this week, followed by a drop into the 8-11 week half-primary cycle trough. That trough may be to the higher bullish crossover zone area. If so, it is still a buy. It is interesting to note, however, that four post Rx and direct time bands of a crest in Gold, overlap the week of May 8-12, and four others corresponding to a trough in Gold overlap May 29-June 2, and June 12-16. The later is when the Moon’s North Node passes over the last minutes of 0 Aries.

SIN (July Silver):

Last week’s low was into weekly support (actually one cent below), and the close was between support-resistance, which is technically a bullish trigger. The close was still above the weekly trend indicator point for the 10^th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1305 will downgrade it to neutral. Wkly support is 1228-1253. A close below 1228 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1448-1473. A close above 1473 is bullish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Bullish crossover zones are in effect at 1100-1115 and 991-996.

This now starts the 19^th week of the 13-21 week primary cycle, unless the 1180 low of last Monday was it. That’s possible, even though the decline lasted only one week. It was, after all, 294 points off the high, which is considerable, and nearly the 300 points we expected. In that case, this is a new primary cycle. The question is will it make a new high, above the 1474 of April 19? I have my doubts because I am not convinced that the 1180 low of last week was also the 111- and 37-week cycle lows, which are ideally due within 7 weeks of May 19 (per “Forecasts for 2006” book).

The market is too volatile to give a firm recommendation at this time. I do know that once the 111-week cycle trough is in, we wish to trade from the long side. But I am not convinced it is in yet. I would love to see it come in within a few days or couple weeks of the Moon’s Nodes entering Pisces (June 19… Our long-term price target for this low is 950-1100, maybe even slightly lower). When long –term cycles bottom, they often coincide with distortion of the shorter cycles, especially when long-term planetary cycles are forming. And the Moon’s North Node over 0 Aries is an 18.73-year planetary cycle.

Using this information properly:

Support may represent favorable risk/reward places to buy if the trend is up. If prices trade below support, then have a close back above it, it is considered a bullish "trigger", and oftentimes represents a good buy signal. Resistance may represent favorable risk/reward places to go short if the trend is down. If prices trade above it, then have a weekly close back below, it is considered a bearish "trigger, and oftentimes a good sell signal.

MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with "speculators" in mind. By its very nature, "speculation" means "willing to take risk of loss." Speculators" must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say "investors". That is why they are "speculators." Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way "speculators" become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA's comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA's trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day's trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone's financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.