MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 22, 2024 ©
April 19, 2024
Due to the all-day workshop this Saturday, April 20, in Ft. Lauderdale and via Zoom, there will be no column per se this week. Instead, we will reprint below our “BRIEF NOTE TO INVESTORS AND TRADERS IN 2024” given in the Forecast 2024 book. This was written in October–November 2023. It is very pertinent to what is happening right now as Jupiter conjoins Uranus.
This 14-year cyclical conjunction will also be the central focus of our Saturday workshop, described in the ANNOUNCEMENTS section at the end of this excerpt. Or you can please click here. Continue reading…
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 15, 2024 ©
April 12, 2024
REVIEW
Rate cuts are coming. Economically, the dissenters on the (ECB) governing council are probably correct and rate cuts would be better now—but precise timing on monetary policy is less important when the objective is cyclical (precision matters when the aim is liquidity or managing disorderly markets).
—Dr. Paul Donovan, “Prices, Policy, and Politics,” UBS Morning Comment, www.ubs.com, April 12, 2024.
U.S. consumer sentiment and Americans’ view on the economy both fell more than expected in April, as inflation expectations rose…American households are turning more pessimistic as higher prices for everyday items take their toll. The latest University of Michigan read on consumer sentiment for April fell to 79.3 after coming in at 82.5 last month. Economists only expected that index to fall to 82.2.
—Breck Dumas, “US Consumer Sentiment Falls More than Expected as Inflation Fears Rise,” www.foxbusiness.com, April 12, 2024.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 8, 2024 ©
April 05, 2024
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Jobs grew at a brisk pace in March, but wage growth was contained, confirming a belief among economists that the U.S. can continue to expand employment without fanning inflation. U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 303,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, significantly more than the 200,000 economists expected.
—Justin Lahart, “Brisk Hiring Bolsters Fed’s Cautious Stance on Rate Cuts,” Wall Street Journal Online, April 5, 2024.
The Department of Energy (DOE) unexpectedly axed plans to refill its “oil piggy bank” in August and September due to surging oil prices… The administration withdrew a record 180 million barrels in 2022 to counter supply issues created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… The DOE has said it’s aiming to buy back oil for the SPR at $79 per barrel or below, less than the average of about $95 it received for the 2022 sales. However, amid increasing prices, the DOE has decided to pull back on further purchases until market conditions improve. The SPR currently holds about 363 million barrels, down from nearly 600 million at the beginning of 2022.
—Serah Louis, “President Biden Just Canceled Plans to Refill America’s Emergency Oil Reserve,” https://finance.yahoo.com/, April 4, 2024
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 1, 2024 ©
March 29, 2024
REVIEW
A key measure of U.S. inflation rose as expected in February, putting a spotlight on whether price growth will be cool enough this spring to justify an interest-rate cut by midyear… “It’s good to see something coming in in-line with expectations,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday… Fed officials last week reaffirmed their projections for three interest-rate cuts this year, though the timing of such cuts remains uncertain.
—Charley Grant and Nick Timiraos, “Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Rose 2.5% in February,” Wall Street Journal Online, March 29, 2024.,
Excitable market analysts talk as if the main risks to the global economy are when and how much central banks will raise interest rates. A different danger came into view in Japan on Wednesday as the yen plunged to another multi-decade low against the dollar. The yen briefly sank to ¥151.97 per dollar, its lowest value in 34 years.
—Wall Street Editorial Board, “All Aboard the Foreign-Exchange Seesaw,” Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2024.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 25, 2024 ©
March 22, 2024
REVIEW
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped on Friday, but clinched its best week of the year after back-to-back record-setting sessions….One reason for the market optimism stems from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank left rates unchanged, and commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced that cuts are coming despite a recent bout of hot inflation readings that led some investors to fear a postponed easing timeline
—Samantha Subin, “Dow Closes 300 Points Lower Friday, but Notches Best Week since December,” www.cnbc.com, March 22, 2024.
That doesn’t mean the Jupiter/Uranus express headed to its major destination on April 20/21 has been derailed. It just means there is a pause as Venus will first conjoin Saturn on March 21, followed by a powerful solar eclipse, and Mars conjoining Saturn, April 8-10. It may get a bit rocky short-term, but the magnetic pull of Jupiter and Uranus is still poised to outweigh other cosmic forces.
—Ray Merriman, MMA Free Weekly Column, March 18, 2024.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 18, 2024 ©
March 15, 2024
REVIEW
“Quiet.” “Stealthy.” “Surprising.” Gold prices are hitting record highs, and Wall Street analysts say they have been caught off guard. The precious metal is traditionally seen as a haven in times of volatility and geopolitical risk. This time, its ascent is coinciding with investor optimism about the U.S. economy, which has sent riskier assets like stocks to new highs. Even bitcoin has surged past its previous record.
—Bob Henderson, “Big Gold Rally Surprises Wall Street,” Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2024.
The overall spending numbers fly in the face of fiscal reality. Mr. Biden proposes spending of $7.3 trillion in 2025, which is an increase of $1.1 trillion in two years. For those scoring at home, that’s 18%. Mr. Biden’s deficits mean that debt as a share of the economy also keeps rising… Covid spending by Donald Trump and Mr. Biden caused the debt to explode to levels not seen since the end of World War II. But unlike after that war, Mr. Biden is making no attempt to control the debt. This is a budget for a world that doesn’t exist…”
—The Editorial Board, “Biden Offers a Budget Fantasy,” Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2024.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 11, 2024 ©
March 08, 2024
REVIEW
“‘ We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,’ Powell said in response to a question about rates and inflation. He said the cuts would be so the Fed doesn’t ‘drive the economy into recession rather than normalizing policy as the economy gets back to normal.’” —Jeff Cox, “Powell Says the Fed is ‘Not Far’ From the Point of Cutting Interest Rates,” www.cnbc.com, March 7, 2024.
U.S. employers added 275,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Growth was driven by the hiring of health care and government employees, along with food services. On the flip side, the manufacturing sector cut 4,000 positions. Strong job growth combined with rising wages is fueling inflation, according to some economists.—Suzanne O’Halloran, “US Economy Adds 275,000 Jobs in February, Unemployment Increased to 3.9%,” www.foxbusiness.com, March 8, 2024.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 4, 2024 ©
March 01, 2024
REVIEW
The Nikkei stock index recorded last week its first new high in 34 years, a fitting tribute to Japan’s re-emergence as a genuinely exciting economy. It also comes amid mounting evidence that Japan has finally broken the hold of deflation. — Greg Ip, “Japan Is Back. Is Inflation the Reason?” Wall Street Journal, February 29, 2024.
The prelude to the Jupiter/Uranus conjunction of April 21 is already working out as we expected. Uranus is excitement and breakouts to new long-term highs, and Jupiter is the principle of abundance, optimism, and exaggeration. Last week, several global stock indices soared to new all-time highs, including Japan’s Nikkei (after 34 years of being in the financial “Dark Ages”), the U.S.’s S&P and Nasdaq, the German DAX, Australia’s ASX, and India’s NIFTY index. And the DJIA hit its high the previous week on Friday, February 23rd. Continue reading…
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 26, 2024 ©
February 23, 2024
REVIEW
“A whole new industry is being formed, and that’s driving our growth,” he [Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang] said on the company’s earnings call. On Wednesday, Nvidia reported quarterly sales of $22.1 billion and forecasted another $24 billion for its current quarter, each more than triple what was posted a year earlier and ahead of Wall Street’s bullish expectations. Asa Fitch, “Nvidia Hits $2 Trillion Valuation on Insatiable AI Chip Demand,” Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2024.
It was a very stunning week for global stock markets as the powerful conjunction between Venus, Mars, and Pluto (February 13-22) ended with the Venus/Mars conjunction on Thursday, February 22. The day before, the tech-heavy NASDAQ index had just put in its lowest price in three weeks, and it looked like many global indices were in the midst of their sharpest decline of this new year. But then Nvidia announced earnings to the upside that surprised everyone. By Friday, all major U.S. indices were making new all-time highs. Such is the correspondence of geocosmics to market reversals. Continue reading…
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 19, 2024 ©
February 16, 2024
NOTE: There not a weekly column this week, as I prepare for the Sunday (February 18th) Forecast 2024 Webinar. The Webinar will be an update on financial markets and the status of the national and world economic outlook as given in the annual book, with more of a shorter-term analysis of the status of these cycles as we approach the powerful Jupiter/Uranus conjunction of April 20, 2024. Instead, I would like to share an interview where I give an overview of the upcoming Forecast 2024 Webinar. You may watch the Video Interview on our YouTube channel and I will share the transcript below. Enjoy!
Forecast 2024 Webinar Interview with Alie and Ray
Hello, this is Alie and Ray from Merriman Market Analyst coming to you today from our offices to talk about the upcoming webinar we have happening this weekend on Sunday at noon Eastern. This is Ray’s annual forecast webinar. So Ray, do you want to take it over and share a little bit with us about what you plan to present this Sunday and what topics will be covered.
Of course. Thank you, Alie. And everybody, welcome. So, this presentation will be on the year 2024 and even beyond. It’s going to be set up in three parts.
Part one is the “New Aira”, A term coined by Astrologer Kat Powell which I identify with the period of 2020 to 2032. That is broken down into four stages, which I’ll go into detail. Stage one was the Jupiter conjunct Saturn in zero Aquarius, the first time in 800 years or so. It took place December 21st, 2020.