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Comments for the Week Beginning April 12, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman   

The Long-Term Cycles

My view is that the 72-year cycle and its 36-year half-cycle bottomed March 6-10, 2009. That was the 77th year of the 72-year cycle, which has a range of 60-84 years, although historically all have been between 73-75 years before this one. It was also the 35th year in the 36-year cycle, which is very close to perfect. However, I don’t think it was the 90-year cycle, and its 45-year half-cycle.

 Historically we note that the long-term cycle troughs in British and U.S. stock markets occur when Pluto is in a cardinal sign. We also note that these lows have always been followed by a secondary low 6-22 years later, and it is possible the second low is lower than the first. As discussed in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2, Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles,” this happened in the first instance of the 72- and 90-year cycles. The first leg down was in 1762, just after Pluto entered Capricorn the last time around (its orbital cycle is about 248 years). Note that Pluto next entered Capricorn in January 2008. After a healthy 3-5 year rally that saw prices testing its highs of the previous 30 years, the British stock market fell to an even lower low on a secondary bottom in 1784 as Pluto moved into 11 degrees of Aquarius. The next major collapse occurred when the U.S. stock market fell 80% from its then all-time high of 1834-35 (as Saturn and Pluto were in opposition) to its 90-year cycle trough (80 years later) in February 1842 (1762-1842). Pluto was in 19 degrees of Aries, the next cardinal sign. Once again the market rallied, for nearly 10 years to re-test its all-time high again in 1852, before falling to its secondary bottom and 72-year cycle trough in October 1857. Pluto was in 6 degrees of Taurus on this secondary low. It did not take out the low of 1842, but it was close. Once again, a long-term bull market followed, culminating in another new all-time high in September 1929. And then the stock market crashed as prices fell 90% into the Great Depression low of July 1932 when Pluto was in 21 degrees of Cancer, the next cardinal sign. This was both the 90 and 72-year cycle troughs, measured from the lows of 1842 and 1857 respectively. The DJIA rallied over 380% the next five years, but then fell to its secondary bottom in 1938, just six years after the low of 1932. Pluto was still in late Cancer at the time.

 So what can we learn from this history? First, as already mentioned, a 72- or 90-year cycle has unfolded when Pluto was in cardinal signs. It just so happens that Saturn was in cardinal signs too (or just passed), while Uranus was at the end or beginning of the zodiac (Pisces-Aries). A secondary low tends to form 6-22 years later, but this secondary low has been occurring progressively sooner throughout history. First it was 22 years later, then 15, then 6. The progression implies the next secondary low may be less than 6 years. In between these lows, the market rallies substantially, often testing the previous all-time high.

 Now let’s look at the current market. I believe a 72-year cycle trough occurred March 2009. At the time, Pluto was in early Capricorn, a cardinal sign, just as it was in 1762. Uranus was in 22 degrees of Pisces on March 6, 2009, in the early part of a sector where it has always been at these long-term cycle lows (23 Pisces to 23 Aries). But Saturn was only 18 degrees of Virgo, not yet in a cardinal sign which marked the devastating declines of the past. Saturn is, however, in the cardinal sign of Libra now (October 29, 2009-October 5, 2012, with the exception of April 7-July 21, 2010 when it retrogrades back into Virgo). It will also be in the cardinal sign of Capricorn, December 2017-December 2020, while Pluto is still there too. One of these two periods could coincide with the end of another sharp decline in U.S. stock prices, in my opinion, that will qualify as the secondary low to the 72-year cycle of March 2009. In the meantime, U.S. and world stock indices could re-test or even make a new all-time high.

 Another reason why I believe there is yet to be another sharp sell-off in world stock markets is because the 45-year half-cycle to the 90-year cycle did not likely occur in March 2009. This half-cycle is ideally due 45-years after its last occurrence in 1974, which would be 2019 +/- 8 years. It seems most likely to happen when Saturn goes into Capricorn (December 2017-2020), for that will also coincide with the Saturn-Pluto conjunction, which marks the end of the 32-37-year economic “down” cycle. Saturn and Pluto will then enter their waxing phase, when economies tend to begin a more prosperous cycle for the next 16-20 years.

 But what also concerns me along the way is the seven-passage series of the Uranus-Pluto waxing square of June 24, 2012 through March 17, 2015. The last time these two planets squared one another was in their waning phase of 1932-1934. The time before that was a waxing phase (just like 2012-2015), from 1876-1877, right in the midst of the longest economic depression in U.S. history, lasting 1873-1879. What is also interesting about that period is that it was the only time in stock market history when Jupiter and Uranus were in conjunction to one another and both in opposition to Saturn. This happens June 2010 through the first quarter of 2011. It also happened around the middle of 1872, just before that 6-year Great Depression. Curiously, the stock market was making new all-time highs then, and continued to make slightly higher all-time highs even into early 1874, even as the longest Depression in U.S. history was unfolding. Does this sound familiar? The stock market was soaring, but the economy was falling, and about to fall real hard for the next several years. The stock market finally succumbed and fell hard too, from a double top all-time high in 1873-74, to an 18-year cycle trough at the bottom of the Depression in 1877, right in the central time band of the Uranus-Pluto waxing square, the same type of configuration we are undergoing right now. That is, in 2010, Saturn is in opposition to the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction, just as it was in 1872. The stock market is flying but the economy is still ridden with serious world-wide debt issues that have not been settled. In fact, the debt issues and spending are exploding, when they need to be reduced. The stock market, however, can stay in this “bubble” for some time, perhaps until the Uranus-Pluto waxing square begins in 2012. And then watch out. Just as we witnessed in 1876-1877, another collapse could commence in 2012-2015, and maybe not even complete its bottoming process until the Saturn-Pluto conjunction of January 2020, +/- 18 months.

 However, before Uranus and Pluto start their square, there may be considerable money to be made in the stock market. For after all, Jupiter will be in Aries through the first half of 2011, and this is a bullish sector of the zodiac for this planet. And it will conjunct Uranus, which is a sign of excessive speculation., Savers will likely move their monies from money markets and bank savings account, which now pay less than 1% rate of return, to the stock market, which has been yielding 70+% returns, with a possibility of much higher to come in the  next year. And then the guillotine falls, and savers won’t exit in time. They will be devastated, and the government will try to rescue them by applying more and more restrictions, regulations, fines, and penalties on the evil banking and stock market community. It’s all happened before. And although it seems like everything is changing and different, it’s all the same. We don’t learn from history because we don’t value the study of cycles, and thus we continually repeat the same mistakes under the same cycles time and time again.  By the way, the last time Jupiter and Uranus were conjunct in Aries was….July 15, 1927 through January 25, 1928. It was in “lift-off” mode, and the bubble persisted into September 1929. That would equate to September 2012 in today’s terms.

 

Announcements

We are now accepting orders for the Forecast 2011 book now via phone (1-248-626-3034), fax (1-248-538-5296), email (ordersmma@msn.com), or through our shopping cart online (www.mmacycles.com). We are pleased to announce the price will remain the same as last year. That is $55.00 if ordered after October 31, and $45.00 if ordered before (plus postage). We will also be offering special 10% discount rate for our subscription services to those who also pre-order Forecast 2011. This is a great deal, for in the words of one of our daily subscribers recently, “I don't know whether you want to hear/take any comments at all but I wanted to say that, so far, I am a very happy camper and the only thing which I think that I did wrong with subscribing to your service that I did it TOO LATE! What was I thinking....? :-)" – R. Rood, Lugano, Switzerland, futures trader and technical analyst, former cash grain trader.

For a review of the forecasts from the Forecast 2010 book, please go to www.mmacycles.com, and scroll down to about the third or fourth article on the opening screen. Or go directly to http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/scorecard-for-forecasts-2010/.

If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report.  I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.” Order now with the Forecast 2011 Book and receive a special 10% rate reduction through October.

CD’s DVD’s, and MP3’s of the July 11 webcast are now available!!! Each of these various ways to see the event can now be ordered via our website at www.mmacycles.com (just click the opening banner), or by calling 1-248-3034 or email operations at ordersmma@msn.com. The cost of each is $45.00, plus postage if necessary. This webcast covered our outlook for stocks, precious metals, interest rates and Treasuries, foreign currencies vis-à-vis the U.S. Dollar, and Grains. We pick this time because it was right before the astrological midpoint of the Cardinal Climax, which is taking place now. It may be the peak of the huge trend reversals expected in many of these markets, aided and abetted by major changes of trend in geopolitical matters. It is interesting to see how the stocks, grains and currencies moved right up into this time band, as outlined in this presentation. You won’t want to miss this. Order now, because most of the trading opportunities presented are in effect mainly from July 21 through October 8, 2010!!!

ForumOnAstrology.com is holding a three-day video conference on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, October 1-3, 2010. This pioneering Internet astrological conference features dozens of internationally known speakers.  Very economically priced, all participants have access to all live broadcasts with the ability to replay them from the archives for up to three months. Call (212) 929-4507 or email Inquiries@ForumOnAstrology.com.

I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won’t manage other people’s money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one’s portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to MMA services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O’Neill of Capstone Capital Wealth Management, Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at dukeoneil1@gmail.com, or 1-(303) 247-0600. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at ted.fisher@comcast.net. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded the “Best in-house fund of funds” in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner’s funds, you may contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.

OK. You’ve asked about classes in Financial Astrology, and I am giving two in great South American cities in September and early October. Since these constitute “investment education,” many of you will be able to write the expenses of this trip off (travel, some meals, and cost of conferences). Here are some more details – and I hope to see many subscribers at each:

September 23-26, 2010: Buenos Aires! Seminar on Financial and Mundane Astrology with Raymond Merriman and others, with special emphasis on Argentina’s Merval Index and precious metals and whatever else is of interest to participants, for each Financial Astrology workshop is different. For more information, contact Claudia Rizzi at astrologycr@gmail.com, or visit our web site at www.mmacycles-spanish.com. If you only speak Spanish, go to www.astrologiamundana2010.blogspot.com. We will host a special gathering of MMA Subscribers at the end of the seminar, depending on interest expressed. 

October 1-2, 2010: Rio de Janeiro! Workshop on Financial Astrology with Raymond Merriman, plus a Mundane Astrology panel with Merriman and others. The workshop will have with special emphasis on Brazil’s Bovespa Index and precious metals, and whatever else is of interest to participants. For more information, contact Renato Chebar at astrologiafinanceira@gmail.com. We may host a special gathering for MMA Subscribers on Sunday, October 3, the day of Brazil’s elections, if enough subscribers request such a meeting.

January 14-16, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. “Forecasts 2011” symposia featuring top mundane and financial astrologers, plus one day workshop on Financial Market Timing with Ray Merriman, to be followed by a special meeting with MMA Subscribers (at no cost). For more details, go to www.astrodata.ch.

March 10-12, 2011: Mexico City, Mexico. Speech on Forecasts 2011, and workshop on “Evolutionary Astrology: The Journey of the Soul Through States of Consciousness.” For information, please contact acuario888@gmail.com.

April 28 and 30, 2011: Kansas City, Mo. “Forecasts for 2011” and “Financial Astrology Workshop” with Raymond Merriman. Sponsored by AOA. Details soon. This will be the next Financial Astrology workshop in the United States.

September 1-8, 2011: Bali! "Financial Astrology" Intensive workshop with Raymond Merriman, and "Mundane Astrology" with Claude Weiss. For more information on this unique week-long intensive and incredible South Pacific paradise adventure, please go to http://www.heavenandearthworkshops.com/financial.html.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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