Merriman Market Analyst

Review and Preview

Last week’s column stated, “We are now leaving the time band of the harmonious Jupiter transits, in effect April 4-9…. the final Jupiter transit (Sun trine Jupiter) unfolds Monday, thus completing the classically benefic “grand trine” pattern with Saturn in fire signs (Aries, Leo, and Sagittarius).” Many stock markets of the world did indeed top out on Monday, April 9. The column also stated, “On Wednesday, Venus (planet of love and money) will leave its ruling sign of Taurus for the more unpredictable sign of Gemini, where it will remain until May 8. One might consider that Venus in Taurus was very bullish for stocks (Venus rules stocks). Gemini is much more erratic in its correlation to things of financial value, so perhaps the stock markets act a little more volatile now.” Indeed stock prices were more volatile last week, with the U.S. stock market selling off sharply into Thursday morning, but then recovering almost all it lost by the next day.

The erratic quality of Venus in Gemini is showing up in many stock indices around the world. After rallying into the Jupiter transits of April 4-9, most indices sold off into early Thursday morning, and then started another rally. Some in dices made new all-time or multi-year highs on Friday, like The German DAX, London FTSE, Australian All Ordinaries, and Bovespa of Brazil. But others in the same region failed to confirm. Not only that, but Japanese Nikkei Index actually continues to fall from Monday into Friday’s close. All indices are registering bearish oscillator divergence too as we end the week, which is a technical sign of a decline to begin soon. But how soon? With the powerful Jupiter-Uranus square not up until May 10, it is possible that equity prices defy these bearish technical signs until then. Or they could surprise everyone and succumb immediately, falling hard into that aspect yet. It is something we have to monitor every day now, for the geocosmic signatures of April 19-May 13 are amongst the most unpredictable of all, capable of sudden whipsaws and very large price swings.

Once again, Gold and Silver also rallied smartly last week. Both continued posting their highest level since March 1. Crude Oil declined to 61.35 on Tuesday, but then recovered over $3.00/barrel by Friday. But the bigger story was the Euro currency which soared above 1.3500. It is nearing its all-time high of 1.3667 of December 31, 2004.

Short-Term Geocosmics

The strongest signature in effect this week will be Saturn turning stationary direct on April 19, thus ending four months of its retrograde motion. This is a Level 1 (strongest) signature with a 70% historical correlation to primary or greater cycles within 9 trading days (and usually only 2-7 trading days). But more importantly, this begins a time frame extending through May 13 that contains several powerful geocosmic signatures (Level 1 aspects), culminating with the extremely important Jupiter-Uranus waning square of May 10. In my opinion (and not a “humble opinion”), Jupiter-Uranus signatures are the strongest of all geocosmic pairings to sharp reversals in U.S. stocks. This is the second of three passages of this aspect this year (the first was on January 22). You may remember last year when these two planets formed the second of their three waning trines on May 5. Within one week the DJIA, Euro, and precious metals all made spectacular crests - and then fell hard in just as spectacular a fashion into mid-May. This time the price swings could even more spectacular because 1) the square is a stronger aspect than the trine, and 2) the square occurs in mutable signs, which are considered more volatile than the water signs they were in during 2006.

We will get a glimpse of this powerful dynamic between April 23-30, when both Mars and Venus will transit in hard aspect to the Jupiter-Uranus square. You may recall that nearby to the first passage (January 22), crude oil made its probable 4-year cycle trough, T-Notes made their low of the year, and currencies made a half-primary cycle trough. All these markets rallied smartly right afterwards. The message? Fasten your seat belts. To borrow a phrase from the Disney World theme park, we are about to begin “Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride.” I would anticipate a few triple digit days in the DJIA during the next 4 weeks, with a possibility of a record (or near-record) loss or gain in one of those days.

Long-Term Thoughts

The religious holidays are now over, so we will get back to our critical analysis of mundane events within the context of long-term geocosmic signatures.

As stated before, the most dominant of the long-term planetary cycle in effect this year is the Saturn-Neptune opposition. This is the halfway point of the 36-year orbital cycle of these two planets, whose historical theme has to do with ethical lapses by leaders in the all facets of life. We saw it last week in the firestorm that erupted over comments by popular radio and TV talk show host Don Imus, for his demeaning comments about the Rutgers girls’ basketball team. And in typical Saturn-Neptune fashion, a witch hunt immediately erupted, and Imus was quickly fired (well, not quickly enough for some people).

But other Saturn-Neptune themes of distrust and “you can’t believe what you read or hear” were once again very much in evidence last week for the beleaguered White House staff and President George W. Bush.  Friday’s Wall Street Journal reported that “(Karl) Rove emails are lost and can’t be recovered in the U.S. attorney case, the White House says.” Does anyone believe this? That followed Wednesday’s WSJ report that “Congress subpoenaed Gonzalez documents a week before the attorney general is to testify, worsening a showdown with the White House.” On the same day, WSJ reported “House hearings will examine if the administration was deliberately misleading about the Lynch and Tillman cases to boost war support.” The White House’s credibility is again on the line, and again they appear to be not forthcoming with information that would boost their credibility as trustworthy leaders. And that is the major issue with Saturn-Neptune: trustworthiness. If not achieved, then the public will want that person (those persons) removed completely from any position of trust (i.e. Imus). Remember the last time these two planets were in opposition was 1971-72, during the Watergate burglaries that led to the shameful resignation of then President Richard Nixon, who like this administration, continues to deny and avoid accountability on sensitive issues with Congress. And until that changes, investigations will continue to mount thus further alienating the public’s trust in this administration, and weaken its ability to govern, leading to more blame and finger-pointing for failure to get anything done.