Merriman Market Analyst

Review and Preview

Stock indices throughout the world started off with a bang last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for instance, soared over 500 points from its low the previous Friday into the intraday high this past Wednesday. And then it fell hard – to a new low for this part of the cycle intraday on Friday.

Once again our daily and weekly subscription reports caught this move beautifully. Here is the excerpt from the last week’s weekly subscription report: “However, last Friday (Aug 3) was such a day (for a reversal), and the market took out the previous day’s low then. This supports the idea that the market could open up higher and rally early this week. In other words, the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) can be expected to make a move to support the markets bright and early, and we could see a 300-400 point rally early on. Traders may look to sell all rallies that remain below 13,738. My guess is that we will rally into Tuesday-Wednesday, and then fade again.” And then the daily report on Wednesday night, just after the DJIA tested 13,700 mark that same day, stated. “The new high for this month of August, at 13,695 intraday on Wednesday, still fits with our forecast (of) a temporary high Tuesday-Wednesday, followed by another decline into Monday. If we go by the technicals, it now suggests this is a new primary cycle, and prices would be up into the first half of September. But, lunar cycle still suggests a low by Monday (August 13), which means we have to top out here, probably without a close above that crossover zone of 13,697-13,712. Aggressive traders can now look to sell short based on this outlook, with the idea of taking profits by Monday.” Financial astrology doesn’t get any more accurate than that, for each of these forecasts were based solely on geocosmic signatures (Jupiter turning direct early last week) and lunar cycles pointing to a high Tuesday-Wednesday, followed by another low within one trading day of Monday, August 13. Let’s see if indeed a low does come in by then.

The pattern witnessed in the DJIA was similar in other equity markets. In the Pacific Rim, the Australian All Ordinaries continued its plunge from its all-time high of 6469 back on July 13. It fell all the way to 5922 last Monday before rallying back to 6187 on Thursday of last week. But then it sold off again to close at 5965 on Friday, right back near those lows. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell sharply late last week to a low of 21,661 on Friday, off almost 2000 points from its all-time high of 23,557 on July 26. In Japan, the Nikkei fell to 16,651 intraday on Friday, slightly below its 16,553 low of the prior week. During the week, it did stage a rally to 17,274 that ended Thursday.

In Europe, all the indices we track fell hard into their weekly lows on Friday. From their all-time highs of July 13, the German DAX, Netherland AEX, and London FTSE have all fallen 10.5-11.7% to their lows of last Friday. The Swiss stock index has done likewise from its all-time high 9518 back on June 4, to the 8515 low last Friday.

In the Americas, the DJIA has now fallen almost 1000 points (965 to be exact) from its all-time high of 14,022 on July 17, nearly matching its largest point decline of the 4-year cycle (from May 2006 to the low of July 2006, the decline was 986 points). On Friday, it finally poked below the 25-week moving average (now at 13,099), thus satisfying the minimum criterion for a 4-year cycle trough – the same 4-year cycle trough that many people speculated had already occurred (despite my argument to the contrary). I believe this cycle can still go lower, for in 85.7% of historical cases studied, the decline has exceeded 20%. This one has only been 6.8% so far. But as you see, it has already exceeded 10% in many other indices throughout the world. Even the NASDAQ Composite has now declined 8.5% from its 6-year high of 2724 back on July 19 to the low of 2491 last Monday. In Brazil, the Bovespa fell to 51,317 last week from its all-time high of 58292 on July 19, a decline of nearly 12% now. The decline of Argentina’s Merval index has been 9.5% from its high of 2303 back on July 23 to the low of 2084 on Friday.

Equities were not the only markets experiencing selling pressure last week. From a new all-time high of 78.77 on August 1, Crude Oil has plummeted to test the 70.00 mark on Friday. Gold and Silver also took a hit during the week, selling off over $20.00 in Gold between Wednesday’s high and Friday’s low. In the case of Silver, the September contract went from a high of 1323 on Wednesday to an intraday low of 1267 on Friday, before recovering smartly on the close. It is all consistent with the Venus retrograde factor, and the “translation” of the Sun, Mercury, Venus and Mars to the recent Saturn-Neptune opposition points. There is more to come (see below).

Short-Term Geocosmics

The next two weeks should be very interesting. The Sun, Mercury and Venus will all form a conjunction to Saturn and opposition to Neptune between Monday’s new moon (August 13), and August 27. Since the 36-year Saturn-Neptune opposition was the dominant aspect of this year, and officially ended June 25, these aspects in effect “translate” over that opposition point. Thus we should see market behavior similar to what we observed during the opposition periods of February 28 and June 25. You may remember that the stock markets fell very hard during those two periods – just like they have been falling recently. And, despite the oversold technical studies, it appears it is not yet over. As stated last week, “…with Venus retrograde, technical studies have a tendency to be unreliable, just as when Mercury is retrograde… (and the ) major geocosmic signature in effect right now is the Venus retrograde, July 27 through September 8.”

We will also be closely watching the period around August 23 when Mars forms a powerful opposition to Jupiter. Within a couple days of that, I would expect the stock market to have another extremely “Big Range” day – 300 points up or down, maybe both.

Long-Term Thoughts

There was an article published Friday by McClatchy Newspapers titled: “U.S. weighs action versus Iran.” The sub-title was “Bush warns: Stop meddling in Iraq.” We have discussed this issue several times earlier in the year, and it is detailed astrologically in an article on my web site. President George W. Bush is not going to wind down the war. His progressed planets indicate an escalation, not a contraction, of war efforts well into 2008. His popularity continues to be near all-time lows for any sitting President. According to an article in this week’s Wall Street Journal, President Bush’s popularity is only 31%, and only one in three Americans think the War in Iraq is winnable. Yet conventional wisdom also holds that “… a majority of Americans trust the Republicans more than they do the Democrats” on the issue of national security. In an Associated Press article of last Monday, August 6, presidential historian Dick Shenkman stated, “Bush will be the Nixon of this generation, there is no question.”

In my view, there are only three ways for the far right conservatives to maintain power in the 2008 election: 1) bring the war to a successful and victorious conclusion; 2) escalate the military tension under the belief that “Fear sells” by expanding into others areas, like Iran and Syria; or 3) the current President becomes a martyr before the election due to unfioreseen circumstances, and creates a huge sympathy vote. Of these three possible roads to another victory, I only think option #2 is the most likely. With the first passage (of five) of the major 45-year long-term aspect of Saturn in opposition to Uranus coming up on election day 2008, we may witness something truly awesome in the how far people in power will go to maintain that power. That is the most powerful signature denoting the theme “Fear Sells.” It is also a signature correlating with an increase in terrorism and/or political assassinations (just look at the mid- to late 1960’s when it happened last). But, it is also an aspect that relates to incredible new movements and brilliant and innovative thoughts, leading to new long-term trends that end up having great investment potential. Brace yourself. Life is about to change again, just like it did in the 60’s.