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Comments For The Week Beginning January 21, 2008
Written by Raymond Merriman   

Please note that there will be no weekly column next week due my presence at the Pluto in Capricorn symposia in Zurich, Switzerland. With the time difference, it was just be too late on Friday night to complete it.

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Stock markets around the world continued their plunge all last week, ahead of the Jupiter-Saturn trine of Monday, January 21. Many fell to new yearly lows, and several others are now testing their lows of last August. In the United States, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite fell well below their lows of August 16. In fact, these indices are now immersed in their steepest declines since the 4-year cycle trough of late 2002, early 2003. The DJIA, for instance, has now fallen over 2000 points and over 15% from the crest of the 4-year cycle back on October 11. This supports our view that this 4-year cycle has stretched out to six years for the first time since the 1932-1938 instance.

In Europe, both the Swiss stock index and the Netherlands AEX have now made new yearly lows. But in England and Germany, the FTSE and DAX respectively are still holding those lows of August, but not by much. The DAX, for instance, fell to 7287 intraday on Friday, still above the 7190 low of August 17. The FTSE fell to 5856, just barely above the 5821 low of the same day.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, we find the Japanese Nikkei falling below its 14,045 low of June 2006. The Australian All Ordinaries plunged to 5799 on Friday, which is still above its lows of August. The Hang Seng fell to 23,957 last Thursday, still well above its lows of August 17. And in India, the NIFTY index fell to 5677, which back to the levels of only last December 19.

In other markets, Crude Oil continued its decline from the 100.00/barrel mark, falling below 90.00 again last week. Gold and Silver both made new all-time or multi-decade highs early last week, then fell sharply into Wednesday before recovering somewhat into Friday. The European currencies however, continued to fall into Friday after posting secondary highs last Tuesday.

Short-Term Geocosmics

Monday, January 21, will mark the third of five passages of the Jupiter-Saturn trine. As stated in last week’s column, “The first two passes were in fire signs, back on March 16 and May 6. The March 16 date was just two days after the end of a very sharp 2-3 week stock market sell-off. May 6 was one day before a crest in the NASDAQ Composite, followed by a modest sell-off into May 16. But now we begin a series of three more of these passages, but in earth signs. From our studies reported in our Stock Market Timing series books, it is not unusual to see a 4-year cycle in U.S. stocks form within one month of one of these middle passes. That means any low forming now – or with the next passage, which is September 8 – could be the 4-year cycle trough (which is now stretched out to 6 years for the first time since 1932-38).”

Venus will also begin its ingress of Capricorn on January 24, lasting through February 17. For the first 8 days of this ingress, it will cross the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction in early Capricorn. When these two planets (Jupiter and Pluto) conjoined on December 11, the stock markets of the world made a peak, and the current sell-off began for many of them. Thus we now watch to see if they can post a significant rally into January 24-February 1, the time band in which Venus translates the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction, much like they did into December 11. January 24-25 should be especially interesting as both Venus and Pluto move into Capricorn together. Symbolically that suggests a major transformation in relationships of all kinds (but especially partnerships) over the next few weeks, even months. If you are in a partnership, be prepared for big changes.

There is a lot of fear in the market place today, consistent with Jupiter in Capricorn. But if history serves as an accurate guide again, one would expect the market to find support within 10 trading days of the trine between Jupiter and Saturn. And it is interesting to note that we are fast approaching our 20% minimum decline level that defines 85% of the declines from the crest to the trough of the 4-year cycle.

Longer-Term Thoughts

Fellow market timer and colleague Garrett Jones ( This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it ) asked me the following question for a CD he is producing: "If someone gave you $5 million to invest over the next couple of years and you had to break it down and then not touch it over that time, how would you do it?" I asked his permission to share my answer on this column, because I thought it might be of interest to readers.

“Where would I put 5 million? If a Republican wins the Presidential election, I would put this money into Gold and foreign currency backed income funds, diversified across the globe in both "neutral" countries and commodity producing counties, like New Zeeland, Singapore, Canada, even Switzerland, as you and I discussed 4-5 years ago. That was the best time to do it. But if a Republican wins, that time is not over, for I believe the Dollar could continue to crash as the U.S. escalates war involvements and hence heads toward national bankruptcy threat and collapse of U.S. Dollar.” Of course, this outlook may be altered depending upon which Republican wins. But if it is war-hawk in the tradition of the current administration, then I hold to this outlook.

“If a Democrat wins, I would simply place most of it in money markets funds (US $ based), for I think it means higher taxes, higher interest rates, but also a more stable dollar - unless it is too late. I would also continue investing in Corn through 2010, and farm equipment (2008 only). And probably something that benefits from oil prices going down (short an Oil-related ETF?). If I was not worried about the effects upon the earth and its people, I would also invest in weapons development of companies in foreign countries, because I believe strong armies will begin to build everywhere but in the USA. But my conscience will not permit me to make this type of investment this personally.”

These views, by the way, are based upon the cyclical pattern of the U.S. Dollar related to recent presidencies, the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square coming up in 2009-2010, plus Uranus moving from Pisces (Crude Oil) into the war-like sign of Aries (2011-2019), and squaring Pluto seven times along the way (2012-2015). And for the record, I don’t know the fundamental reasons why Crude Oil would come down in price while weapons development in foreign countries increases. It seems to me to be a contradiction. But this is what my understanding of cycles and astrological signatures suggest, and I find they tend to happen accordingly regardless of my sense of logic beforehand.

 

Announcements

Announcements

The SOS Global Stock Markets Report will come out to subscribers of this report this week. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services/. This report highlights the long-term cycles labeling for the DJIA, NASDAQ Composite, XAU Gold and Silver mining indices, German DAX, Netherlands AEX, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and Australia’s All Ordinaries indices. It also covers the short-term outlook for these same indices, plus special coverage of geocosmic signatures in effect

 This is a good time to sign up for the ISAR 2009 conference, as a window for a wonderful discount closes July 25. For those interested in learning or improving your understanding of astrology, this fantastic conference in Astrology is going to take place August 19-24, 2009, at the luxurious  Oakbrook Hills Marriot Resort, just outside of Chicago (not far from O’Hare Airport). This will be the ISAR (International Society for Astrological Research) 2009 conference, featuring over 80 professional astrologers from all over the world, including Jeff Jawer, Rick Levine, Michael Lutin, Claude Weiss, Nick Campion, Verena Bachmann, and several Financial Astrologers like Christeen Skinner, Robert Hitt, Grace Morris, Roy Gillett, and myself. There will be a whole track on Financial Astrology, and I will be giving a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology, specializing in the Stock and Gold markets, on Monday, August 24. For more information, and registration, please go to www.isar2009.com.

 If you are an active short-term trader, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, T-Notes, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. In the words of one of our subscribers: “I recently subscribed to your weekly report and am finding it to be excellent and a very useful companion to the MMA Cycles Report.  I can't imagine now managing my investments without them.”

 Stay tuned to these pages for an announcement on the annual pre-publication special offer for the Forecast 2010 book, coming in the next few weeks. Once the announcement is made, we will begin to take orders for this book that has sold out the past three years. Order early and make sure you get next year’s Forecasts!

We are pleased to announce our new official Japanese web site at http://merriman.jp. Here you can read our free weekly report in Japanese every week. You can purchase several of our books and subscription reports in Japanese, including or new weekly Gold report, Cash Currencies report, and both the MMA Cycles and MMA Japanese Markets Cycles reports. If you read Japanese, please feel free to check out this new site, created by Toshi Nippou Ltd. of Tokyo.

 We are also pleased to announce the formation of our new Weekly Cash Currencies Report in English, to start the first week of June 2009. This report will cover our weekly analysis of cash Euro Currency, the Dollar-Yen, and the Euro-Dollar markets. For further in formation on this new subscription report, please visit www.mmacycles.com, and look under SERVICES.

The German version of “Merriman on Market Cycles: The Basics” is now in print. It is also a revision of the earlier work in English. For more information on this book, please go to our German web site at http://www.mma-europe.ch/.

We have added a valuable new feature to our web site. Now, on the very front page, you can get a daily update on the weighted values of the Solar-Lunar cycles for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Silver market, via the studies conducted in “The Ultimate Book on Sock Market Timing Vol 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Trading Cycles,” and “The Sun, Moon and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader.” These are the studies I use personally for short-term trading of stock index futures, ETFs (like DIA and Silver fund), and Silver futures. Anything over 100 means it has an above-average correlation to reversing from an isolated high or low if it forms that day. The higher the value, the more probable the reversal. To see these daily values, please go to http://www.mmacycles.com/, and just check it out on the top of the page.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

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