Merriman Market Analyst

Review and Preview

It’s like Deja Vu. 

Last February 28, the second of three Saturn-Neptune oppositions took place. This was followed by the transiting Sun making a translation to the Jupiter-Uranus square in the heavens one-two weeks later, March 5-9. Many stock markets of the world made an all-time or multi-year high just prior to that Saturn-Neptune opposition, then suffered their worst decline of 2007 into March 5-9. Now we see something similar transpiring. Between June 4-9, the transiting Sun again made a translation to the Jupiter-Uranus square, and stock prices once again put in a one-week sell-off that ended June 8, the second strongest decline of this year. But since that low of last Friday, equity prices around  the world are rebounding, with many making another new-time or multi-year high on Friday, as we now come within one week of the third and final Saturn-Neptune opposition on June 25. Will the symmetry complete itself with another crest within days of June 25? This should be an interesting week, given that 3 of the four factors have now culminated as symmetry would suggest, with the fourth is due in one week.

In Europe, the German DAX, Netherlands AEX, and London FTSE indices all made new multi-year highs on Friday. Furthermore, the DAX and FTSE are within striking distance of their all-time highs made in late 1999, early 2000. The Swiss Stock Index did not make a new high last week, but ion Friday it did rally to 9429, only 119 points off the all-time high achieved on June 4.

In the Pacific Rim, only the Hang Seng tested its recent all-time here. This index got to 21,0532 on Friday, just shy of its 21,088 level of may 15. The Japanese Nikki briefly went above 18,000 before settling the week at 17,971. This is still down about 300 points from its multi-year high of 18,300, realized back on February 26, just before that Saturn-Neptune opposition passage. The Australian All, Ordinaries made a smart recovery from its weekly low of 6200 on Wednesday, rising to 6322 on Friday, But this was still well-off the all-time high of 6435 realized back on June 4.

In the United States, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average came very close to posting a new all-time high on Friday. It touched 13,688, just four points off the all-time high of 13,691 recorded on June 1. The NASDAQ Composite got to 2630, taking out its multi-year high of 2626 recorded also on June 1. In Brazil, the Bovespa did make a new all-time high last week, but the Merval Index of Argentina fell a little short of its June 1 high.

In other markets, crude oil soared to its highest level in 9 months, reaching 68.30 on Friday. Wheat soared all the way to test 620 last week, a huge move from its 412 mark of April 2. Soybeans also posted its highest price of the year as it tested 850 on Friday. Corn also closed back near 420, its highest rally since falling to 352 one month ago. All of these markets continue in bullish trends as we head in to this final Saturn-Neptune opposition of June 25.

Short-Term Geocosmics

We now enter the next Mercury retrograde period (June 15-July 9), and approach the third and final passage of the Saturn-Neptune opposition (June 25). As stated last week, “This forthcoming Mercury retrograde date of June 15 may be important, for it falls just one trading day prior to the midpoint of the entire geocosmic cluster now underway (June 4-July 1).” The point is that this huge geocosmic cluster is indeed coinciding with one of the most significant moves in financial markets of this year, as anticipated. And we are now right in the middle of this time band of intense geocosmic activity.

The Mercury retrograde influence of the next three weeks may play havoc on traders. This is typically a time of conflicting political and economic news events. Consequently investors have a difficult time determining if the market is really bullish or bearish. It is not uncommon to see short ansd sharp swings in both directions, but the amplitude of these swings tends to contract as the retrograde unfolds. Still, the confusion and lack of clarity does not likewise recede with the shorter price swings. They still swing back and forth, and data still comes out with mixed signals. That’s why it is a good time for a vacation – but make sure your reservations are indeed confirmed, for Mercury retrograde is know to astrologers as a time when misunderstandings and poor communications can cause great annoyances. If you are trading, for instance, make sure the broker sells, and not buys, when you tell her/him to sell. Pay attention to what you are saying ,and to what the other person understands. But communications apply to computers too, so be careful about downloading those attachments received from people you don’t know. It is not uncommon to experience computer or telecommunication problems during these periods.

But for traders, the problems are more to do with failures in technical analysis studies. A buy or sell signal  if oftentimes unreliable, and turns out to be a “fake out” just as often as it is a signal that should be followed. Our advice is to trade only very short-term now, and be ready to switch your position any time the market seems to stall for approximately 20 minutes.

Long-Term Thoughts

The final passage of the Saturn-Neptune opposition occurs on June 25. Thank God. Maybe after this, the world and its leaders will have a greater respect for the principles of honesty, truthfulness, ansd ethical behavior. We expected this signature to correlate with a slew of scandals and ethical challenges. But never in my wildest imagination did I anticipation the non-stop incidents that we witnessed over the past nine months, especially here in the United States. It had its predictable effect on President George W. Bush, who has been virtually reduced to an entity of non-importance in the eyes of the international community during this period. I don’t think he sees it that way, but it reflects the comments of international leaders the world over during the last couple of months towards him – but not towards the United States itself.

It also reflects the aspect this signature makes to Mr. Bush’s natal chart. That is, his natal Venus is in Leo, in the same degree where Saturn is today, and opposite to where Neptune is transiting. At the end of last year, I thought this might correspond to proceedings by the newly elected Democratic Congress to impeach him. But instead it soon became clear that the Democrats had no intention of impeaching. Rather they would hound him (and this staff) with one investigation after another into his past decisions, especially those which appear to be in violation to his constitutional authority. By constantly reminding the public of these ethical challenges, the Democrats would keep fresh those very things that led to the anger the public to unseat the Republican-controlled Senate and House. More of those upsetting positions (and comments) of the President and the White House came to light this week. Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal reported on the failure of the “no confidence” vote for Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez over his department's dismissals of several U.S. attorneys due to their perceived unwillingness to prosecute the “enemies” of the Republicans. That is, the Senate voted 53-38 in favor of the “no confidence” position against the Attorney General. They needed 60 to pass. But, according tot eh Journal, “Bush expressed unconcern about the vote, saying it is he, not the lawmakers, who will ‘make the determination about who serves in my government.’ ” Well, there you have it. Such much for the idea of the government of  the people, for the people, and by the people. It is, “my government.” Perhaps that is the attitude that has made Mr. Bush so unpopular at this time when Saturn sits right on his natal Venus. Venus rules popularity and love. As this week’s latest Wall Street/NBC poll showed, Mr. Bush’s approval ratings have sunk to 29%, the lowest ever in the history of this poll for a sitting President. Interestingly enough, the approval rating of Congress itself was even lower.

It’s like Lee Iacocca titles his new book: “Where Have All the Leaders Gone?” The good news is that Saturn is now to pass out of this opposition to Neptune, and the importance of honor, integrity and accountability to the populace will likely start to rise again.