Merriman Market Analyst

Review and Preview

 What a wild week it was. It was the kind of week you might have expected following the new moon conjunct Uranus the prior week, March 10. In fact, the new moon oftentimes sets the tone of the following two weeks, in a lunar cycle known as the “waxing” phase of the moon. The moon “waxes,” or increases in light, for two weeks every month between the new and full moon. In astrology, it is believed that the ideas or actions which commence on a new moon continue to develop until the full moon. The new moon is the conjunction between the moon and the Sun, and the full moon is the opposition. At the full moon, the cycle reaches a climax, and those efforts started at the new moon can be manifested, or ended. In this case, the new moon of March 10 was heavily influenced by the planet Uranus, because all three (Sun, moon, and Uranus) were in the same part of the zodiacs, creating what is known as a conjunction. The nature of Uranus deals with surprises and the unexpected. When Uranus is highlighted, nothing is stable, and plans and expectations get changed abruptly. In terms of markets, it oftentimes represents a period of great volatility and large price swings in a short amount of time. We certainly witnessed that last week in stock indices around the world. Uranus can also represent breaking out to new all-time highs, or falling to multi-year lows. We also saw that last week with the rallies in Gold, Crude Oil and many foreign currencies to new all time highs, and the fall of the U.S. Dollar to new all-time lows.

 The price activity in world stock indices was anything but stable or consistent last week. Some indices made their weekly lows on Monday and others fell into Friday. And on those lows, some indices made new yearly lows and others held well above their lows of January 22-23. In the Pacific Rim and Asian markets, the Australian All Ordinaries and Japanese Nikkei indexes fell to new yearly lows on Tuesday and Friday respectively. But India’s NIFTY index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index did not. The later two came close and if the trend continues, they could exceed their January lows next week. If not, it will be a case of bullish intermarket divergence for this region.

 In Europe, all the major indices held above their January lows. But the German DAX and Swiss SMI came very close. The DAX fell to 6399 on Friday, which was barely above the 6384 low of January 22. The Swiss Stock Market Index fell to 7021 last Monday, which is slightly higher than the 6950 low of January 22. But England’s FTSE only fell to 5595 last week, well above the 5338 mark of January 22. And the Netherlands AEX performed similarly, falling to 425 last Monday, which is still well above its 401.45 low of January 22.

 In the USA, the NASDAQ Composite fell below its low of January 23, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average held it. Last Monday, the DJIA fell to 11,731, well above the panic low of 11,634 of January 22. By Wednesday, it was nearly 600 points higher. But on Thursday and Friday, the DJIA sold off sharply again, falling below 12,000. This type of erratic behavior is typical Uranus, and this type of intermarket divergence has bullish implications if it continues to be present in the next week or so.

 But as these market gyrations continue, market participants tend to feel another characteristic of Uranus: instability, insecurity, nervousness and on the verge of hysteria and panic. With Uranus, it can either suddenly reverse, or it can completely fall apart. You just never know for sure, and if you think you do, you are apt to be seriously humbled.

Short-Term Geocosmics

 The erratic market experiences of the first two weeks of this month are not likely to end. Just as the market fell when the Sun translated the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition from February 24 through March 10, Venus will do the same from March 15 through March 28. On the positive side, Financial Astrologers can point to the idea that Venus is at least now in Pisces, a sign in which it is exalted. They can also point to the fact that the first passage will be the opposition of Venus to Saturn, which takes place this weekend, March 15. Oftentimes when a market is falling into this aspect, it will bottom, and then stage a sudden recovery just as soon as it is over. Could the stock market have bottomed last week? According to this Financial Astrology principle, the answer is yes. But according to the concept of planetary translation, there is also a possibility the market could continue making these wild price swings right into the time that Venus finishes its conjunction to Uranus on March 28.

 And it may not even end of March 28, for during that period, we see another type of translation: the Sun will translate over the recent Mars-Pluto opposition between March 21 and March 30 followed by Pluto turning retrograde on April 2. Pluto rules both debt and threat to human lives or crops. Even though news reports stated that the worst may now behind us with the sub-prime mess and the subsequent write-downs by financial institutions, there may still some more reports of losses coming up during that time.

 So hold onto your seats. This wild ride may not be over yet.

Longer-Term Thoughts

 Due to speaking commitments here in Belgrade this weekend, there will not be time to give my long-term thoughts on the markets and politic situation. This part of the column will resume when I return to the states next week.