Review and Preview

 The countertrend Venus retrograde rally in stocks in stocks continued through most of last week. In fact, the lead article of Friday’s Wall Street Journal declared this a new bull market, as the “Dow (is) Up 21% in 13 Days in Quickest Rally Since 1938…” On Thursday high of 7931, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 22.5% from its 12-year low of 6470 on March 6, the day Venus began its retrograde motion. Other world indices made their multi-year lows the following Monday-Tuesday, March 9-10. And all continued higher last week. As stated in last week’s column, “It is not unusual to see a market making a multi-month high or low nearby to Venus turning retrograde, and then reverse in the opposite direction until the time its motion returns direct. If the Venus retrograde is more powerful than the Sun’s translation to the Saturn-Uranus-Pluto T-square, then the market should continue its rally for a few more weeks before taking out the low of March 6-10.”

 For some strange reason, the investment community has accepted the rule of 20% up or down as the definition of a bull and bear market respectively. As a Cycles’ Analyst, that is not our definition of a bull or bear market. It is not measured in terms of percent gain or loss, but rather according to length of time and pattern. For instance, it is a “bullish” if the high of a new cycle is occurring after the 8th week. It is bullish if both the trough and crest of the 13-21 week primary cycle are higher than the trough and crest of the prior primary cycle. This new cycle is only three weeks old. The crest of the previous primary cycle was 9088 (January 5-6). We won’t know if this primary cycle’s trough is higher than the prior one until it ends in about 10-18 more weeks. The last primary cycle (March 6) certainly was lower than the prior one (7449 on November 21). As you can see, this market has a long way to go before it can be defined as a new bull market.

 You might also find interesting the last three major DJIA rallies since the economic crisis hit in September. The first lasted four weeks, from October 10 to November 4. The DJIA rallied 1772 points, from 7882 to 9654. The second rally lasted almost 7 weeks (Nov 21-Jan 6), from 7449 to 9088, and covered 1639 points. This one has now lasted 3 weeks, and in this time the DJIA has risen 1461 points so far. It is not that this isn’t a bull market. However, except for that arbitrarily accepted “20% rule,” there is nothing to confirm it as such as of this time. Of the three post-crash rallies, this one has so far gained the least amount of points. And now we are right in the middle of the Venus retrograde zone (March 6-April 17). This is a point where a sharp but short reversal can occur (see “Short-Term Geocosmics”). In fact, most stock indices did start to pull back on Friday, right on time, according to this rule of “retrograde motions” in Financial Astrology. This rule states that if a market is making a significant high or low when Mercury or Venus (and probably Mars) turn retrograde, then that “trend” may be briefly (but sharply) interrupted at the halfway point of that planet’s retrograde motion.

 The mid-point of the Venus retrograde period had a similar impact on Crude Oil, Grains, and Currency prices last week. All had been up sharply since the week Venus turned retrograde. All made new highs for their cycles into last week. But then each of these markets ended the week with significant pullbacks. 

Short-Term Geocosmics

We are right in the middle of the Venus retrograde period now (March 6-April 17) as of March 27. As discussed above, it is not unusual to see a sharp but short reversal around this time in any market that started a new trend at the time of the retrograde. Since the U.S. stock market made its primary cycle low right on March 6, as Venus turned retrograde, and it has been up ever since, this market is a good candidate for such a short-term decline right about now.

 There is another concern looming on the horizon. Transiting Mars is about to begin its “translation” to the Saturn-Uranus opposition, April 4-15. In 2008, such “translations” were accompanied by sharp declines in stock indices throughout the world. It hasn’t been that way in 2009. In fact, it has coincided instead with sharp rallies. Note that the last “translation” occurred with the Sun making the same aspects to Saturn and Uranus (opposition and conjunction respectively), March 8-13. That coincided with the low in most world stock indices, from which started this current bull run. We wait to see if a similar decline will happen this time into April 4-15), with another strong advance to follow. Or, if instead, new cycles highs in stock indices form then, and it is just the opposite. The one thing that does seem almost certain, however, is that with Mars in opposition to Saturn, followed by its conjunction to Uranus (and all of this occurring in mutable signs), the markets will be volatile. These are signatures that oftentimes coincide with the threat of military conflicts or terrorist activity, and a tendency towards aggression on the world political stage. In terms of nature, it can coincide with fires, explosives, as well as tornadoes, earthquakes, or volcano eruptions.

Longer-Term Thoughts

 Here it comes.

Last week’s report stated, “… the first non-lunar aspect made as we begin spring will be the Sun square Pluto on Monday, March 23. With Pluto in the picture as the spring equinox begins, the focus is once again on debt, for Pluto rules debt, death, and taxes.” So what were the themes of all last week? Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal started off with “White House to Hunt for New Tax Revenues.” The front page snippet said, “The White House plans to seek new tax revenues, as lawmakers move to pare proposed spending increases and tax cuts.” Well, we welcome the consideration to pare back on the proposed $3.6 trillion spending plan. But we worry about paring back on the tax cuts promised to 95% of the population after only 1-2 years. I am not sure the American voter understood the tax break would be so… temporary.

But it does fit in with the waning phase of the Saturn-Pluto cycle (2001-2020), described so often in past columns. This is when federal deficits increase, and are soon followed by increases in taxes and interest rates. So far we haven’t had the increases in taxes or interest rates. But now as we approach the middle of the Saturn-Pluto cycle (i.e. the waning square of November 2009-August 2010), we see the winds of change coming.

Yet this doesn’t have to be a negative, and the very next day the Wall Street Journal printed a story titled “White House Leans Towards Tighter Enforcement of Taxes.” The title sounds ominous and certainly consistent with one’s worst nightmare about Saturn square Pluto (i.e. getting that dreaded notice from the IRS that you will be audited). But within that article comes a glimmer of hope, fairness, and entirely consistent with suggestions on how to handle the deficit problem positively in light of the Saturn-Pluto history. Midway through the article, John D. McKinnon writers, “A growing number of experts… say the U.S. should consider switching to more efficient means of raising revenues – for example, taxes on consumption.” This is how it is done in many countries today – countries where the population has a much higher savings rate than the USA. Instead of taxing on one’s net income, which will always be unpopular and in dispute, a shift towards a tax on consumption might be more popular. A balance between these two may be more favorable. Obama can then keep his campaign promise, increase his popularity, while at the same time raising more revenues that escapes the U.S. Treasury through tax evasion or avoidance. In other words, lowering the inflammatory income tax, and by the same percentage (not a higher percentage) adopting a new consumption tax – or “VAT” (Value Added Tax). This would be a tax reform (in the USA) consistent with the Saturn-Pluto waning phase, while at the same time it would encourage a transformation of our addiction to debt and spending. Taxing on purchases – instead of on one’s working wages – will help individuals develop the habit of savings. One will think twice before spending carelessly.

In the waxing phase of Saturn-Pluto, the tendency was to spend and invest (i.e. “Appreciate your capital’). In the downside of the Saturn-Pluto cycle, the mantra is “Protect your capital.” This may be one way to transform this difficult phase of the Saturn-Pluto cycle into something more fair and constructive, and in line with the principles upon which this country was founded (a tax on income was not part of this country’s founding). It is far more constructive to raise monies this way than to send the tax collectors out to audit more and more people. Of course, reducing the government’s parabolic spending spree could do the trick too.