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Comments For The Week Beginning November 12, 2007 This is not the same as our service titled
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| Comments For The Week Beginning November 12, 2007 |
Review and PreviewThe sub-prime mortgage woes in the U.S.A. continue to unsettle investors around the world, despite efforts by the FED the prior week to alleviate those concerns by lowering the FED funds rate. That rate reduction was greeted positively the day it was announced. But ever since then, equity markets have plunged. And the free fall in the U.S. Dollar has investors concerned, despite Treasury Secretary Paulsen’s insistence that a strong Dollar is in the country’s best interest. Now what tools do they have available to calm the brewing storm? All world stock indices plunged last week. Some – like the Japanese Nikkei and Swiss stock index - are now testing their lows of August. This suggests that the 4-year cycle might not have bottomed then, but is in the process of doing so now. If that is the case, we may still see indices fall more than 20% below their multi-year and all-time highs of the past few weeks. As pointed out in prior columns, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has plunged at least 20% in over 85% of historical cases after the 4-year cycle tops out. The decline into August 16 was only 11% off the prior highs in July. That was a very short decline (only one month) and the lowest percentage of decline on record, if indeed that was a 4-year cycle trough. It was never confirmed because prices never broke the 23-month moving average.
On the other hand, the Euro currency continues its blow-off to new all-time highs, while the Dollar falls to new all-time and multi-decade lows against other currencies. In sympathy, Gold tested its all-time last week, reaching $848.00 on Wednesday, November 7. Silver soared to a multi-year high of $16.27 on the same day in the overseas markets. Crude Oil also put in another new all-time high on the same day, as it hit $98.62.barrel. Our forecast of $100.00/barrel, made over two years ago based on Uranus transiting the middle degrees of Pisces, is essentially being achieved now. Uranus will end its retrograde motion and turn direct on November 24 at 14 degrees, 46 minutes of Pisces. That’s about as “middle of Pisces” as you get. Short-Term GeocosmicsWe are getting close to the middle of one of the most important geocosmic clusters of the year. As stated last week, “The time band continues to be in effect of so many important geocosmic signatures to one another between October 25 and November 30. Near the middle of this cluster, Mars will turn retrograde on November 14, something it does every 25-26 months… We note that the all-time speculative high of $850.00/ounce in Gold occurred in mid-January 1980, just a couple of days past a Mars retrograde. Interesting enough, Saturn was in Virgo then too, a position it occupies for about two years in its 29-year orbit around the Sun. Saturn just ingressed into Virgo in early September 2007, where it will remain through fall of 2009. And interesting also is that Gold is back above $800 for the first time since then. Same planets, same signs (for Saturn), same Gold prices. How is that for synchronicity?” So here we are. The middle of this huge geocosmic cluster is right now. Mars goes retrograde this week, followed by Uranus on November 24. And on December 11, the 13-year cycle of the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction will take place. Is it any wonder that these markets are so nervous right now, and exhibiting such large price swings? Readers of this column know that when signatures involving Mars, Jupiter, and Uranus are prominent, financial markets oftentimes go berserk. Blow-offs to new cycle highs that break all resistance zones, or panic selling to new cycle lows that break all support zones, result in huge profits or losses for many traders, depending on whether they are on the right or wrong side of these moves. The large price swings could continue as this week begins with the “Sagittarius Factor” (Moon in Sagittarius) on Monday. This single lunar signature has a high correspondence to big range days in several financial markets. The week also begins with a waning square between the Sun and Neptune, a Level 1 signature for stocks that also has tendency to coincide with rumors and misinformation or poor analysis of the situation (yes, more of that). And then on Wednesday, Mars turns retrograde through the last days of January. Is there any hope ahead? Yes. Venus has now moved into the sign it rules – Libra – on November 8, where it remains through December 5. Generally speaking, this is a mostly bullish time for equities and bearish for many commodities, like Gold and Silver. But with the Jupiter-Pluto conjunction looming ahead, and having themes pertinent to a crisis in debt markets (which we are indeed now experiencing), there will be a battle between these two contradictory cosmic forces. It suggests some days of very strong rallies, intermixed with other days of very strong declines. It may be a good time to be a day trader, and not take the risk of holding overnight positions. Longer-Term ThoughtsThe question on everybody’s mind right now seems to be: “Is this it? Is the big decline starting that will result in a major depression and stock market collapse?” After all, the FED seems to be losing control. Their efforts to please market players the previous week were for naught. The markets have not been stable since, We are currently in the decade of a “Triple Saturn Oppositions.” This was described in last year’s Forecast Book in great detail. This is when each of the 32-45 year cycles between Saturn and the planets outside of its orbit (Uranus, Neptune and Pluto) come into an aspect of an opposition. It doesn’t happen very often that these three oppositions unfold within a span of just ten years. In fact, it has happened only three times in the history of the U.S. stock market (last 200 years). In each case the stock market made a new all-time high. And in each case a prolonged bear market followed that lasted at least 23 months, and prices dropped at least 40%. Do I think the stock market has now topped out and such a bear market is beginning? No, not yet, although that opinion could change depending on market patterns that could unfold at any time. I believe that before the final top is in, we have to get within 10 months of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, the last of the three Saturn oppositions that will take place November 2008 through July 2010. After all, this signature (and its conjunction) has the highest correlation of any planetary combination to very long term cycle highs or lows. I think Bernanke and Paulsen will still continue their utmost to avoid a recession or outright stock market crash on their watch. I just don’t think these fire sign heroes have much tolerance for financial market pain, and plenty of ingenuity to try unexpected things that will surprise everyone. But I do wonder what they can do right now to strengthen the Dollar, if we are to assume that Paulsen is sincere in his insistence he favors a strong dollar. As I see it, there are only three ways to change the course of the Dollar in the very near future. First, raise interest rates in U.S. (or lower them in Europe). I don’t see that happening. Second, orchestrate a coordinate currency intervention amongst central bankers to buy dollars and sell the euro. That could happen, but it will not solve the problem for long. Third, start a war. When wars start, the U.S. Dollar becomes the “safe haven” currency. Hmmm… with Mars turning retrograde, That would not be advisable right now. Under Mars retrograde, the aggressor usually loses big time. Think Argentina and the Falkland Islands back in the early 1980’s. |
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Please note that I will be giving two lectures in Arizona in March. The first will be Friday, March 12 in Tucson, 7:30 – 9:00 PM. Please contact 520-625-5762 or gaelchi@dishmail.net for reservations and location information. The second will take place in Scottsdale, Friday, March 26, 7:00 – 9:30 PM. Contact 602-952-1525, or as aboard@azastrology.org for reservation and location details. The title of the presentations will be “FORECASTS 2010 AND THE USA ECONOMY.” These presentations will discuss the importance of the “Cardinal Climax,” an unusual planetary pattern that will be in force 2008-2015, with its strongest astrological set up taking place in the summer of 2010. This set up affects the charts of the USA, Barack Obama, and the Federal Reserve. As each of these entities undergoes radical changes, it will also correspond to powerful movements in financial markets and the world economy. This is a year in which tremendous profits, or losses, can be realized, related to Jupiter conjunct Uranus cycle which begins in 2010.
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CD’S, MP3’s, DVD’S, and webcast viewing of the Forecast 2010 speech will be available in about a week. The Forecast 2010 Webcast Speech took place December 20, 2009. We are offering a CD or MP3 download that contains the audio only. You can also view the webcast again in it’s entirety as a one-time download from Vibation until January 25, 2010. And it will be available in a DVD edited edition too. The cost for any of these recordings will be $45.00 and an additional postage charge if ordering in audio CD or edited DVD format. For further information, go to our website at www.mmacycles.com (it will be up sometime this week). Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. “Thank You - it’s very thoughtful and thanks you for sharing your knowledge. A whole new world opened for me.” Attendee to the Forecast 2010 webcast.
The Forecast 2010 book are out!!! For more information, visit our web site at www.mmacycles.com. “Kudos… the 2010 forecasts – you’ve outdone yourself - I see Jupiter is playing a role not anticipated (if I recall correctly) last year .... it all clicks.” RR, Santa Fe
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Disclaimer and statement of purpose:
The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.
This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.
It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.
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