Merriman Market Analyst

Review and Preview

Many equity and commodity markets rallied into late last week as the center of geocosmic cluster unfolded Thursday, October 11. The U.S. stock markets all made new all-time or multi-year highs last Thursday, as did Gold and Crude Oil. New all-time highs were also registered in India’s Nifty index, Australia’s All Ordinaries, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng. Japan and all European indices rallied smartly into Thursday as well, but did not attain new all-timer highs.

Short-Term Geocosmics

The major planetary cluster in effect was centered on October 11 of last week. It involved the third and final waning square of Jupiter-Uranus (October 9), the Libra new moon and Mercury retrograde station on October 11, and the third and final conjunction of Venus and Saturn on October 13. I would expect that this week’s activity would be a reaction to those signatures that peaked last week (or early this week).

For this week, we note the following geocosmic signatures. The “Sagittarius Factor” (Moon in Sagittarius will take place on Monday and Tuesday, coinciding with Venus sextile to Mars on Tuesday. This is followed by the ingress of both the Sun and Mercury over 0 degrees of Scorpio on October 23, the next week. The Sagittarius Factor has a tendency to produce sharp price swings in some financial and commodity markets, like currencies, T-Notes, and Silver. The Venus-Mars sextile also has a rather reliable correlation to reversals in many financial and commodity markets within an orb of just a couple of days. It is likely going to be related to the October 11 critical reversal date in this instance, +/- 3 trading days.

The ingresses of Sun and Mercury – involving Scorpio – can coincide with a change of sentiment regarding interest rate or debt matters. The concern might about an increased in debt, either national or in regards to the level of personal debt. Perhaps a report comes out about an increase in foreclosures, bankruptcies, and business failures. Perhaps there is more spillover about the sub-prime fiasco of the last few years.

Keep in mind that Mercury is now retrograde through November 1. This is typically a time when technical studies become most unreliable. Support and resistance either do not hold, or fail to be reached as expected. Buy and sell signals are more like “fake-outs,” and markets flip-flop in very short spans of time (compared to usual). Usually we give very few recommendations to position traders during this period. It is better to be a very short-term trader, even day trader, ort stay out of the markets altogether and let others enjoy the confusion of contradictory messages and announcements from economic and political leaders.

Also, we will repeat comments from last week’s column. “Everyone knows about the “October effect,” when stock markets seem to incur a powerful sell-off. Well, the new and full moons of the Libra Sun have the highest correlation to highs from which those declines begin, or lows from which the declines end. This is a new moon week, and it happens on the day Mercury turns retrograde…. between October 8-27, Saturn and the South Node of the Moon will be conjunct. It’s possible that worry becomes heavy, and if prices do continue to decline into the following week, they may continue to do so for several more days. But in all likelihood, these signatures suggest that many declining markets will find a bottom by the end of this month, however sharp the decline is.”

Longer-Term Thoughts

Last week we discussed the importance of Pluto’s transit into Capricorn, a 15-year journey that will begin January 26, 2008. But before that happens, we will experience a shorter-term signature that also has the potential to be a very powerful correlate to mundane and/or market phenomenon. This is the 13-year Jupiter-Pluto conjunction, which takes place nearby to the Galactic Center (26 Sagittarius) on December 12. The nature of Pluto was cove red in detail last week. It pertains to matters of life and death, the termination of cycles related to the planets and their ruling signs that are involved. In this case it is Jupiter in Sagittarius. Jupiter also rules Sagittarius. The principle of Jupiter is to expend and enlarge, exaggerate and inflate. Sagittarius is also rules the domain of foreign affairs, publishing, philosophy, education, and law. Pluto rules the domain of debt and taxes. So at first glance, it seems that debt is on the increase, along with plans to in crease taxes in many areas, in the mistaken belief that this will be a long-term solution to the debt crisis. It is only short-term, with more dire consequences long-term to the growth of the economy. It is interesting to note that the last time this signature occurred was in late 1994, when Orange County California defaulted on its municipal bonds that were due.

But we may also find many social programs ending, or being reformed, especially those that pertain to law and education. Religious matters are apt to come to the forefront too, not only because Jupiter and Sagittarius relate to religion, but because the Galactic Center refers to the quest to understand the origin of all things. Debates are likely to arise again between the creationists and proponents of evolution, on the origin of life itself. Event the issue about the existence of God may be stirred again. It is noteworthy that as Pluto has crossed this Galactic Center point over the past 1-2 years, there has been a sizeable increase in atheism, which is certainly a threat to organized religion. So within three months of this transit, we may see major reformations taking place in religion and religious attitudes pervading society. We may also see  major changes of trends in financial markets that are affected by debt (Treasuries, currencies). Crude Oil is also connected to this Jupiter-Pluto 13-year cycle. Perhaps the all-time high is achieved during this time band, and the expected 60-90% decline in crude oil prices begins. Previously we have also associated this possibility with the transit of Uranus in Pisces. That too continues in effect from 2003 through 2010. Pisces rules crude oil. When Uranus is in a sign of a sector, that sector oftentimes makes new all-time highs around the time it is in the middle degrees of that sign, and then drops substantially before leaving that sign.