Merriman Market Analyst

Review and Preview

As stated in last week’s column, “… the geocosmic picture may (now) give cause to reassess all this wonderful news and bullish studies. The aspects between September 3 and September 9 are amongst the most powerful geocosmic correlates to trend reversals… Accordingly, this period becomes vulnerable to a possible sudden and huge sell-off… It could be another financial panic, or a natural disaster, or something completely unexpected and shocking.” Well, the U.S. markets indeed experienced a sudden financial shock on Friday, following the much-weaker-than expected payroll reports. For the first time in 4 years employment actually fell by 4000 jobs in August, when economist were expecting a rise of about 110,000. What a difference - and shades of Uranus! After all, from September 3-9, the Sun was transiting in T-square to Jupiter (large moves) and Uranus (unexpected surprises).

 The jobs report came out just before U.S. stock market opened, and so the impact was felt mostly in the U.S.A., and towards the end of the day in Europe. After rallying last Tuesday to 13,494, its highest level since the panic low of August 16, the DJIA fell sharply on Friday to test the 13,000 level again, closing at 13,113. The NASDAQ Composite also made a high on Tuesday, at 2644, before selling off to 2556 intraday on Friday. 

 In Europe, the Netherlands AEX peaked at 531.75 last Tuesday, but closed near the lows of the week at 517.43. The German DAX index also topped lout Tuesday at 7725, then closed the week at 7436, slightly off the lows of the week. The London FTSE topped out on Wednesday at 6390 and closed the week about 200 points lower, at 6191. The Swiss Index behaved in similar fashion, peaking at 8974 on Tuesday, and ending near the weekly lows at 8676.

 The damage was not nearly so severe in the Pacific Rim and Asia, where the markets were closed by the time of the U.S.A. jobs report. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong made yet another new all-time high on Wednesday at 24,283 and closed very near those highs on Friday. The Australian All Ordinaries also made their high of the week on Wednesday at 6358, and then sold off the next day before rebounding again Friday, but still down considerably from their all-time highs of July 13 at 6469. Japan’s Nikkei Index made anew high also early last week (Monday) at 16,576, before dropping back below 16,000 temporarily on Thursday. It did not look too strong by Friday’s close. And the NIFTY stock index of India continued rallying all week, touching 4547 on Friday, just slightly below its all-time high of 4647 back on July 24. The Hang Seng and Nifty still look strong, compared to the All Ordinaries or the Nikkei. But again, this past week was a critical reversal zone, and each market made new multi-week or longer highs, so there is concern about how these markets will open on Monday.

 In other markets, Gold broke away from stocks and soared late last week, closing over 700.00, a mark that has proven to be resistance all year for highs. It looks like it wants to go even higher, perhaps up to the 20+-year high of May 2006 when it tested 740.00. Silver also had a good week as it tested the 1280 mark on Friday, up over 13% from its 55.5-week low in the low 1100’s just three weeks ago. Crude Oil also continued it march upwards towards the forthcoming Jupiter-Uranus square of October 9. It reached 77.43 on Thursday, coming closer and closer to its all-time high of 78.77 recorded on August 1.

 Will these new trends last as we start the new week? Venus now turns direct September 8 after being retrograde since July 27. This is a powerful Level One geocosmic signature.

Short-Term Geocosmics

This week will find a partial solar eclipse on Tuesday, September 11, followed by Mercury in a harmonious sextile to Jupiter on September 13. So, are we going into a recession, or is this just another temporary panic? It will take some time to determine that for sure. The fact that all this happened during the Venus retrograde cycle (July 27-September 8) provides an argument that these conditions may end very soon, even this coming week. But the forthcoming conjunction of the Moon’s South Node with Saturn, along with the third and final passage of the Jupiter-Uranus square (say October 9-27) suggests that the fear of further significant sell-offs (and other problems) is not completely over for a few more weeks. If the markets continue down this week, then we may be looking at another financial selling panic as the 4-year cycle continues to unwind. But if the markets find support above the lows of August, it may be due to the intervention and coordinated efforts of both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury departments. This is entirely possible, for as discussed before, neither of our fire sign financial wizards (Bernanke or Paulsen) want a recession on their watch. But they may not have much choice to stop a severe sell-off of equities and other assets as Jupiter approaches its square to Uranus in about 5 weeks. This implies continued volatility and risk to very sharp sell-offs. Yet with Jupiter continuing through Sagittarius until December, these sell offs maybe relatively short-lived, albeit very sharp. Remember that the minimum criteria for the decline to a 4-year cycle low is 10% and we reached that August 16. But in 85% of historical cases, the sell off to that low is at least 20%, so there may be a lot more to go before this time band ends in November.

 On a more personal note, the Venus and Pluto changing directions this weekend (September 7-8) can bring about a process of healing and forgiveness in intimate relationships. If you have been encountering more than the usual conflicts with someone you love – even to the point of breaking up - the next few days may offer a path to correct your behavior, seek forgiveness, and get the relationship rekindled. The same might be possible for financial crises, both personal and market-wise.

Longer-Term Thoughts:

 The front page of last Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal reported, “Bush is unlikely to order more than a symbolic cut in troops before year end, officials said, and appears set on hewing to his current strategy.” This is entirely consistent with prior astrological analysis given in this column, based on Mr. Bush’s natal and progressed chart. It doesn’t matter what the various commissions that he himself appoints are advising - from the Baker-Hamilton Commission of late 2006, to the updated report due to Congress next week. Mr. Bush has progressed Mars (planet of war, combat, offensive) conjunct his natal Jupiter (planet of expansion and exaggeration) through the end of his term. This is a signature of one who believes victory is possible, and only attainable with an increase of aggression and offense, not a decrease. Defeat is not a choice to one with this set up (combined with other signatures presently in his chart). Victory is the only option, and the strategy of overwhelming the enemy with more and more troops is the means to that end – in this set up. Will it work? And what is the consequence if it doesn’t work or if the U.S.A. pulls out?

 It seems the administration is very adamant that the Iraqi conflict is not at all comparable to the Viet Nam experience. Yet to an astrologer, the parallels are uncanny, which suggests the results could also be similar. During the View Nam conflict, the 248-year cycle of Pluto was transiting in the later third of Virgo (a mutable sign) for several years, forming a hard aspect to the Mars-Neptune square in the U.S.A. chart at 20 and 22 degrees of Gemini and Virgo respectively. This combination can correlate to the commencement of a conflict based on faulty, false, or misguided information. It can also pertains to incorrect assessment of the capabilities of the enemy, and questionable strategies for combating that enemy. In the end, the public grew very weary of this war. They did not understand or accept the rational for engaging in this conflict and became suspicious of the administration’s handling of it. It became the source of great national distrust of the government’s leadership. The president became very unpopular and more and more distant from the populace that he presided over.

 In the first half of this decade, as the Iraqi conflict erupted, Pluto was in the later third of Sagittarius (a mutable sign again), and again in hard aspect (opposition and square) to this same Mars-Neptune arrangement in the U.S.A. chart. Due to the slow movement of Pluto, this is the first time since the 1960’s that Pluto has entered into hard aspect to the Mars-Neptune natal square. Unless I am missing something, the same issues I just listed above are indeed present with this conflict. And the similarity indeed seems uncanny, and they are indeed in line with the principles associated with transiting Pluto in hard aspect to a country’s natal Mars and Neptune. I think this does give us a clue about what to expect for the future.

 Secondly, in the mid-late 1960’s, the 45-year Saturn-Uranus opposition took place (with Pluto conjunct Uranus). That opposition is now returning in 2008-2010 (and forming a T-square with Pluto during that period). The main difference is that in the middle to late 1960’s, the conflict was just beginning. In 2008-2010, the conflict will be well underway, and perhaps even ending. But there is another long-term geocosmic signature that will be present this time that was not present in the 1960’s. Pluto will start its 16-year trek through Capricorn (2007-2023). This is a period that I will be referring to as “The Good and the Bad, Even Worse, and then Redemption.” Will things get worse in Iraq if the U.S. withdraws? Of course. Will they get worse if the U.S. stays? Probably, judging by the nature of these aspects. That’s the problem. Will things ever get better in that region? To that we can also say, “Of course.” But astrologically-speaking, it seems that the situation will enter a period where it gets perhaps as bad as anyone can imagine (“the worst”). And then it gets better. All this over the course of the next 16 years. As I see it, the very bottom can take place anywhere in that 16-year period and the “redemption” (healing) can also take place within that 16-year period too. Exactly “when” depends on the choices these leaders make, or the choices the people make as to who their leaders will be. And based on my understanding of the Saturn-Uranus opposition that begins on the very day of the 2008 election, the U.S. public will vote for a dramatic change of direction in its leadership. That force of change may also affect the Federal Reserve Board, for the Saturn-Uranus opposition forms a grand square to the chart of Chairman Bernanke.