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MMA Comments for the Week Beginning August 20, 2012
Written by Raymond Merriman   

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    Mars was conjunct Saturn and Venus was in a T-square to the Uranus-Pluto square on August 15-16. Plus the Mars-Saturn conjunction hit important points in the chart of the New York Stock Exchange. All of these geocosmic signatures – plus overbought technical momentum indicators – indicated a reversal was at hand. But equity markets around the world didn’t really reverse as anticipated. They paused for much of the week, but then continued to new cycle highs on Thursday and Friday. This may have been due to the new moon on Friday, headed to the moon’s passage into Libra next Monday-Tuesday (August 20-21), or the options expiration on Friday, August 17.  We did experience nice reversals upwards in currencies and precious metals from lows which unfolded exactly as expected on August 15-16, so the geocosmic signatures scored a hit once again in terms of a shift in investor psychology even if it didn’t reflect specifically in equity values, other than Facebook. By the way, Facebook last week met our original projection of a 50% decline off their opening IPO price of $38.00. Now it begins to look attractive to technical students like myself.


Best Trades of the Past Week


The best trade of the week was in Gold or T-Notes. The weekly report for August 13 in Dec Gold stated, “Aggressive traders are also long. Let’s take profits on 1/3 of longs here too and rebuy on a decline back to or below the 15-day moving average, or 1595. Set the stop-loss on a close below 1575. If we do drop into a low Aug 15-17, we want to buy that if not already long”  The low last week occurred on Wednesday, August 15 at 1592 after opening the week at 1620. For September T-Notes, the report stated, “Position traders are short (from the 135 area a couple of weeks ago)….  we still have 2/3 shorts (after covering 1/3 for profits the prior week), so let’s set out stop-loss on a close above weekly resistance, but cover another 1/3 now and the final third if and when prices drop back below 133. We will look to go long on a drop to 132/16 or better with a stop-loss on a close below 130/16” The low was 132/10 on Friday, August 17.


Short-Term Geocosmics


    Another geocosmic explanation as to why stock indices continued to rise all last week and not reverse (as of Friday anyway) may be related to the Sun-Neptune opposition coming up on Friday, August 24. This is a powerful Level 1 signature according to the studies reported in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.” Level 1 signatures are those that have at least a 67% correlation to primary or greater cycles within two weeks. The Sun-Neptune opposition has a historical frequency of 74% to primary or greater cycles within 13 trading days. Of course the majority occur within far less than 13 days. In fact, most occur within only 4 trading days. This is followed by a Mars-Neptune trine on August 26, another Level 1 signature with a 74% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 11 trading days. What also makes this period so important as a potential reversal and shift in trader sentiment is that Mars will enter Scorpio on August 23. Let’s dissect these elements.


    In the studies conducted in Volume 3, I noticed an interesting pattern that reoccurred several times under transits of strong Neptune aspects. It is what traders and analysts often refer to as a “distribution top.” That is, equity markets would rally into these Neptune aspects, but not with a great deal of force or volatility. The rise would be modest, and then prices would plateau out. It was like Neptune had no power or energy behind it. At the same time, the trading community would appear to be very complacent. They wouldn’t buy with gusto and they wouldn’t immediately sell. So the market just appeared to be floating, like a sailboat in a gentle breeze.


    This in contrast to Uranus and Mars aspects, where the winds of change are like storms. Last week witnessed Venus in a  hard aspect to Uranus and Pluto, and so the thought was that markets would be volatile and reversals would suddenly erupt, like a storm cloud that appears out of the northeastern sky instead of the west. That didn’t happen. The rallies of the past 10 weeks did stall temporarily under those signatures, but then they resumed their graceful upward trajectory, so we have to look elsewhere for explanations for this mild behavior. Perhaps they will decline yet next week, for these signatures are only 2 trading days old. But if they don’t, or even if they decline only mildly, it may be due to the two Neptune signatures coming up.


    So it may be that we have to wait until next week passes, and Mars gets fully out of Libra, where it is in conflict (Mars is aggressive and war-like, Libra is indecisive and peace-loving). It moves into Scorpio through October 7, its natural home, and where it is much more certain about what it wants to do and nothing will stand in its way as it makes its decision.


    Of course in terms of politics, this can be an even nastier signature, which will be something because already the 2012 presidential election is the ugliest and nastiest election ever according to many political observers. And with Uranus in square aspect to Pluto through March 2015, that is no surprise (see Forecast 2012 Book). The campaigns can and probably will get more negative in the next six weeks. The negativity may backfire on candidates, as suggested by some smaller polling agencies which now report that President Obama’s likeability numbers have fallen from the high 50’s to the mid 30’s in the past few weeks.


    I don’t recall an election where so many supporters of each party feel their candidate is going to lose. My liberal connections complain that Romney is going to win, and my conservative associates feel that Obama is going to win. This is strange. This is Uranus square Pluto. This is the United States headed into a transformative election cycle, with the Uranus-Pluto square headed to form a grand square to the USA Sun-Saturn square in 2014. This is the United States today headed for the dreaded Uranus-Pluto “Fiscal Cliff” on January 1, 2013. Everyone hopes they will solve this approaching storm. But they are losing faith in the political system to do what is necessary and right to protect their citizens instead of their own jobs. As the President’s likeability sinks by 20%, the approval rating of Congress sinks to an all-time low of only 10%.


Longer-Term Thoughts


    “I think we introduced something new to the campaign – numbers!”     - Rick Santelli on CNBC, speaking on the choice of Paul Ryan as the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate. August 14, 2012.


    As I completed the studies for the second edition of “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles,” my attention was drawn to the importance of Saturn in a waning trine aspect to Neptune. This is a long-term planetary signature (36-year periodicity), and in every instance (7 times since 1762) it has corresponded to a 4-year or greater cycle in the British or U.S. stock market within 6 months. In six of those seven instances, it has corresponded to a cycle greater than the 4-year type, and in six of those cases it was a trough of the 4-year type or greater. Truly and surprisingly, this Saturn-Neptune trine is one of the most consistent and powerful correlates to long-term stock market cycles. And it is coming up October 10, 2012-July 19, 2013. In fact, the only planetary signatures stronger than this are the conjunction and opposition of Saturn and Uranus, and the opposition of Saturn and Pluto.


    Of course, these studies are just numbers. They are numbers that show us a pattern in human activity which, if we chose to pay attention, can tell us something important about our human family. If we chose to ignore them, we may fail to see lessons and insights about our family’s history that can provide an enlightening way out of difficult times.


    Yes, words matter. They can provide hope and inspire others to greater confidence, or vice-versa. But they don’t prove anything unless they are backed up by measurable results. Numbers on the other hand measure results and thus provide insight to solutions. Of course they can be manipulated and oftentimes are for nefarious purposes. But without numbers, there is no verification other than one’s own subjective interpretation of experience. Santelli is right: the election has just shifted from words to numbers which can measure results. Now, who can count in Uranus-Pluto quantities? 15 trillion… 16 trillion… and increasing parabolically as we move closer and closer to that cliff unless… Pluto reverses and repeals. I am not sure Uranus in Aries will let him, for Uranus in Aries tends to like thrills, such as a game of “chicken” and jumping off a cliff into an abyss. I hope there is a safety net in place.
 

Announcements

Announcements

More of the research papers by students of MMTA from Course 1 (Cycles and Patterns in Financial Markets) will be posted on MMTA’s website at www.merrimanmta.com, under “Student Research.” The latest involve papers on the long-, intermediate-, and short-term cycles (and future projections) in Sugar. Yet to come are studies on Platinum, Soybeans and Corn. I think you will be as impressed as I am with the quality of work these students are performing already.


The next MMTA course will take place June 15-17, 2013 at the Michigan Education Center (MEC) in Troy, Michigan. Once again, it will be available as a webinar to those who wish to attend but cannot be there physically. This course is titled “Geocosmic Correlation to Investment Cycles in Financial Markets.” It will examine the correlation of Pluto, Neptune, Uranus, Saturn, and the Moon’s North Nodes to long-term trends and their cycle troughs and crests in many financial markets, including stock indices and precious metals, going back over 200 years. The cost of this webinar (for non-MMTA students and apprentices) is $2750. For further information and/or registration, please go to http://www.merrimanmta.com/course_two.shtml, or call MMA at 1-248-626-3034. Registration for this course will end June 12.

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis. These weekly reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF’s). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: “I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations.  I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA.  In the last eight years, I increased my account from $60,000 to $850,000.  Thanks for your excellent publications.” - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.

The monthly MMA Cycles Report and its companions – the MMA Japan Cycles Report and MMA European Cycles Report – came out last week. If you are a subscriber and did not receive your report, contact us immediately. This report covers our longer-term analysis of the U.S. stock market, precious metals, crude oil, currencies, Treasury Notes, and grain markets. The MMA Japan Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen. The new MMA European Cycles Report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX, each in English only, and will be available on Wednesday. For further information and subscription, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/subscription-services/mma-cycles-report/.

If you are interested in a review of Course 1 of MMTA that took place April 6-8, please visit http://www.mmacycles.com/the-news/about-mma/a-review-of-the-mmta-course-1--by-henry-canciglia/. Or go to the www.mmacycles.com website and scroll down the first page. Henry Canciglia has an extensive background in the U.S. political and intelligence community. He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. Henry is one of the 15 apprentices for the two-year MMTA course.

The April 6-8 webinar and live presentation on “Cycles and Chart Patterns in Financial Markets” has been completed. The DVD of this extraordinary event will be available in about one-two weeks. The LMS (Learning Management System) will also be available for uploading to new students who want to avail themselves of this training over the next two years. The LMS is expected to be available in about 5 weeks. You may now pre-order the DVD at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=421&Itemid=61. If you wish to place your order directly, please call Maureen Hogan or Amber Lundsten at 1-248-626-3034, or email to mhogan@merrimanmta.com. The cost of the DVD or the LMS will be $3000. It includes the very valuable 130+-page workbook, which follows right along with the DVD and LMS program.

Following the last MMTA workshop in April, MMA entered into an official affiliation with MetaStock. As most of our subscribers know, MetaStock has been my preferred market analysis tool for several years now, along with FAR for the Galactic Trader (they work together nicely).  I particularly appreciate the crispness of their graphics, excellent scanning capabilities, and wide range of technical indicators that I use in the analysis of our various reports. As part of our affiliation, MetaStock is offering special discount and free trial to all MMA readers and subscribers. If you would like to try a free trial of Metastock in order to view and evaluate their charting software, please go to www.metastock.com/merriman. Let us know what you think.

The DVD of the MMTA pre-training workshop on “How to Read an Ephemeris” is also now available! The cost of the 8-set, 10+ hour DVD packet, is $395.00 plus postage, and will include the workbook. If you are a trader, analyst, or student interested in enhancing your skills in market timing, or if you are considering applying for admittance to the MMA Market Timing Academy (MMTA), then this DVD is highly recommended. To order this DVD, please go to     http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=379&Itemid=48.  You may also call or email us at 1-248-626-3034, or orders@mmacycles.com.  

Events:

May 30-June 2, 2013: Great Lakes Astrology Conference, Ann Arbor, MI. Featuring internationally known astrologers, Michael Lutin, Chris McRae, Monica Dimino, Glenn Perry, Lea and Aleksandar Imsiragic, Sandra Leigh Serio, and Raymond Merriman. For further information, please contact Pamela Wenzel at jcweipw@juno.com, or magnum1593@gmail.com, or visit their website at http://www. greatlakesastrology.com.   

June 15-17, 2013: MMTA Course 2: “Geocosmic Correlations to Long-Term Cycles in Financial Markets” with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan. This will be available as a webinar to non-MMTA students and apprentices fro $2750.00.

August 10-12, 2013: MMTA Course 3: “Geocosmic Correlations to Primary and Trading Cycles in Financial Markets” with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.


October 12-14, 2013: MMTA Course 4: “Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Reversals in Financial Markets” with Raymond Merriman. Location: MEC Technical Center of Michigan State University, Troy, Michigan.

 

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

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