Review and Preview

    If you are an equities trader, then the past few days have not been “shock and awe.” This was our message two weeks ago pertaining to the transit of Mars entering into a T-square with Uranus and Pluto (July 17-18), shortly after both Mercury and Uranus turned retrograde (July 13-14). This was to be the “shock.” During this same time and afterwards, Mars would trine Jupiter (also on July 18) and Jupiter would form a favorable sextile to Uranus (July 21). This was to be the “awe.” But in equity markets world wide as well as precious metals, it was mostly just prices trading back and forth within a rather narrow range. It wasn’t very much shock and it was just a little bit of awe, as some equity markets did rise very briefly to a new monthly high before settling back at the end of last week.

    However, there was considerably more action on other markets. Take grains for example. The record hot temperatures in the USA grain belt, accompanied by a lack of moisture, propelled both Corn and Soybeans to new all- time highs during these past 7 days. The nearby Soybean contract rallied to 17.77/bushel on Friday and Corn to $8.28. Food costs are going to rise sharply. But that wasn’t the only record broken last week. Mortgage rates fell to an all-time low as the September contract on the Ten Year Treasury Notes soared to new highs, but the 30-year Treasury Bonds fell just shy of their contract high, in what could become a case of intermarket bearish divergence if either close in the lower half of a day’s range before negating this set up. As grains and Treasuries made new highs, the Euro currency dropped to its lowest level in over 2 years on the news that Spain’s banks are once again entering dire straits. So if you were looking for “shock and awe” and you weren't limiting yourself to just equities and precious metals, it was certainly there.

    Equity markets around the world were up and down a lot last week (typical of Mercury retrograde) and are now posing some interesting possibilities related to the powerful geocosmic signatures that were present. Take Europe for example. On Friday, July 20, the AEX of Netherlands, DAX of Germany, and SMI of Zurich all soared to their highest levels since those lows of June 1-5. Bothe the AEX and DAX are up nearly 15% from those lows just 6-7 weeks ago. The SMI is up nearly 11%. But the London FTSE and Russian MICEX could not take out their highs of July 5, for a case of intermarket bearish divergence. The FTSE, by comparison, is up less than 10% since its low of June 1. England is apparently in worse shape than these other Euro markets. Russia’s MICEX, on the other hand, was still up over 16% last week from its lows of May 24.

    The situation is similar in the United States. The Dow Jones soared slight above its monthly high of 12,961 on July 5 when it attained 12,977 intraday on Thursday, July 19. But the NASDAQ Composite fell short, reaching only 2976 on July 19, slightly below its 2987 high of July 5 for a case of intermarket bearish divergence here. Both markets then sold off rather sharply on Friday to validate this signal. In South America, the Argentine Merval Index soared to 2577 on July 19, its highest level since its low of May 16. The Bovespa of Brazil, however, is well below its high of July 5 and in fact closer to its 52,271 low of June 28, for yet another case of intermarket bearish divergence, in the same region, and within close proximity of a geocosmic critical reversal zone.

    Asia and the Pacific Rim were by far the most bizarre of all regions related to equity markets. The Australian All Ordinaries index surged to a new monthly high on Friday at 4245, but that represents a gain of only 5.5% from its primary bottom at 4033 on June 4. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong only got up to 19,656, well below its high of 19,835 back on July 4. But the Japanese Nikkei, India NIFTY and China’s Shanghai Index all fell for most of last week, with Shanghai Composite re-testing its lows of January 6. Yet it is exhibiting a bullish oscillator divergence pattern, while the other indices are exhibiting bearish intermarket divergence patterns. Maybe it is time to buy China and sell the other indices of this region, as well as other regions. Most of those indices making highs throughout the world last week did so under falling oscillator levels.

Best Trades of the Past Week

    Over the past few weekly columns, I have been inserting trading recommendations made to our subscribers in the prior week. Readers seem to like this type of information to just see how accurate these reports, based on our unique timing methods, have been in many cases.

Our best trades last week were in the stock indices. The daily report for July 18, stated for E-Mini September S&P futures, for example, “Position traders are long with a stop-loss now on a close below 1339. Let’s look to exit and stand aside at 1368-1372 if offered.” Aggressive traders were also long with the same stop-loss as position traders for now and advised, “But let‘s exit at 1368-1372 and go short there with a stop-loss on a close above 1380.” Both positions had been long from 1340-142 the prior week. On July 18, the E-mini S&P rose to 1370.50. The next day it went a little higher, to 1376, and then reversed. By Friday it was under 1360. We didn’t go short for position traders because Mercury is retrograde and we don’t usually initiate new position trades during this time, but only short-term aggressive trades.

Short-Term Geocosmics

    Last week was a perfect example of Mercury retrograde in both stock indices and precious metals. There were several days in which prices took out the daily support or resistance, only to close back above support or below resistance. This is known as “fake outs” and is a common occurrence under Mercury retrograde. It just reinforces our rule under Mercury retrograde: take profits too soon (i.e. take profits quickly, like every 1-4 days, and don’t wait for your price target to get hit and don’t expect a break of resistance to be a buy signal or a break of support to be a sell signal. It is just as likely to be a fake out.

    Mercury will continue retrograde through August 8. For this week, it (Mercury retrograde) will form a sextile to Jupiter on July 24 and a trine to Uranus on July 25. Both of these are benign, and may give the equities a bit of a lift. Or, given that Mercury is retrograde and the rules don’t always work, maybe it will not be much of a lift at all this time. There is not much else going on until July 31, except that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21 (see “Longer-Term Thoughts” below).

Longer-Term Thoughts

    The longer-term planetary signature now unfolding is known as Jupiter in a waxing sextile to Uranus. We don’t usually talk much about sextiles, for it is not as strong as the “hard aspects” of the conjunction, square, and opposition. And it is half the strength of the other favorable and harmonious aspect known as a trine. But it is not really a minor aspect, especially when Jupiter is involved. Unlike the trine, which is favorable in a way similar to “luck,” which means “without much effort, opportunities come to you,” the sextile is favorable as a result of smart thinking. It is a mental aspect, and one makes gains through good decisions and well-thought out intellectual analysis that usually turns out to be correct.

    But these sextile aspects can also have a correlation to market turns, especially when Jupiter (planet of opportunity and ‘good luck”) is involved. Like most aspects, the sextile can either mean the end of a difficult time and the start of a favorable one, or the end of a favorable up move in markets and the start of a down move. But when we talk about aspects between Jupiter and planets beyond its orbit (like Uranus), these changes in trend don’t usually happen right on the day. They can be up to six weeks away. And so it is that Jupiter will sextile Uranus on Saturday, July 21, and thus we look to the time band of six weeks surrounding right now to produce a major trend change.

    Here is how this aspect is described – based on  its history over the past 140 years, in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 2: Geocosmic Correlations to Investment Cycles: “This is a reliable signature for timing troughs. In eight of ten cases a 50-week or greater cycle trough occurred within 1 month of the waxing sextile between Jupiter and Uranus. In fact, even if a crest coincided, it was usually 1–3 months before the aspect… then dropped to form a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough within 1 month of it. Then the market would embark upon a strong 4–14 month rally. In these cases, investors may use this signature to time purchases of stocks — if a 50-week or 22.5-month cycle trough appears to be forming within 1 month of the aspect.”

    So as we look at the current instance of this long-term planetary signature, we note that the highest price in three years was attained on May 1, 2012, which was two months ago. If that high at 13,338 in the DJIA holds, it will become labeled as the 4-year cycle crest. This fits its past history of exhibiting such a long-term cycle crest 1-3 months prior to the aspect. But then we note that an important low formed on June 4, which was six weeks ago (or, one month). Measured from the prior low of October 4, 2012, one could say the low June 4 was within the time band of a 50-week cycle trough (range is 38-62 weeks, and that was 42 weeks). The only problem is that this 4-year cycle has not been exhibiting 50-week subcycles. So we are down to this analysis based on this aspect: if June 4 was the 50-week cycle low measured from October 4, the market would likely be up for the next 4-14 months following June 4. But if prices cannot exceed 13,338, then chances are greater that the market could fall hard into the 4-year cycle trough due late this year through early 2013 when the “Fiscal Cliff” arrives if the impending explosion in new taxes is not repealed.

    Based on Uranus squaring Pluto – a perfect symbol for “falling off a fiscal cliff" due to an explosion of taxes (especially dividend and capital gains taxes) – the stock market is still fundamentally on course for a 30% or greater decline by early 2013. Most analysts think the President and Congress will come to an agreement to avoid this fiscal disaster. I wish I could be as confident. With Pluto in Capricorn square Uranus in Aries, I think it would be unwise to not take steps to protect your investment capital against such an eventuality. These are not signatures of an agreement that takes into account what is best for the country. These are signatures in which people – political leaders – are more apt to act in a manner that causes more harm and destruction than solution, due to past grievances. It’s payback time. With Pluto, it could be a time of healing. But for that to happen, it means 1) overcoming past psychological patterns, 2) admission of wrongs, and 3) forgiveness. With Uranus in Aries (a potentially ruthless, self-serving, and merciless combination), these positive possibilities are nothing to hold your breathe for. Still, holding your breath can be a good thing for other reasons. Just remember to occasionally exhale.