Menu Content

Merriman Market Analyst

Home arrow Weekly Preview arrow MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 28, 2008
Advertisement
Please note:
This is not the same as our service titled
"MMA Weekly Comments and Recommendations on Financial Markets"
which is available by subscription only.
Flowchart on MMA Products and Services
MMA Comments for the Week Beginning July 28, 2008


Review and Preview

The last two weeks have presented an interesting drama between the various aspects of geocosmic studies, and the market behavior in a distorted primary cycle.

On July 10, Mars began its “translation” of the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition. On that day, it formed its conjunction with Saturn. On July 15-16, three-four trading days later, many (but not all) of the equity markets of the world ended a multi-month decline at their lowest levels in about two years. This was also at the end of the “Sagittarius Factor,” a 2-day monthly lunar cycle zone when the moon is in Sagittarius. This particular solar-lunar cycle has a higher than average correlation to reversals in U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, dropped to 10,827 on that day, July 15, its lowest level since its July 18, 2006 low of 10,683.

By Wednesday-Thursday of this past week, July 23-24, as the Moon was in Aries, the stock markets topped out and then had a very sharp one-day decline. In the DJIA, for example, the index had risen to 11,698, a gain of over 860 points in only 6 trading days, or nearly 8%, well above the 4% minimal level that the lunar reversal signature from July 16 indicated. But on July 24, the DJIA fell 283 points in just that one day. The high of July 23 took place under the very powerful solar-lunar reversal signature of the Leo-ingress Sun and Aries moon. This solar-lunar cycle has a weighted value score of +183. Anything over 120 has a “better than average” probability of reversing from an isolated low or high, according to the studies in “The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 4: Solar-Lunar Correlations to Short-Term Trading Reversals.” Anything over +150 is very strong, and above +200 is unusually strong. This was one of the stronger solar-lunar correlations to a short-term trading reversal. And it worked immediately. Thus it was an excellent signal because a trader’s greatest goal is to achieve “maximum profit potential with minimal market exposure.” Application of the solar-lunar studies do not get any better than these last two instances of July 15-16, and then July 23-24. By the way, these solar-lunar weighted values are now given daily on our web site at www.mmacycles.com.

But back to the Mars “translation” of the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition. The low of the move occurred on July 15 (in the DJIA), the 25th week from the previous primary cycle low of January 22, when the DJIA had put in its prior yearly low at 11,634. That level was surrendered, plus another 800 points, into the low of July 15. Yet at the same time, the NASDAQ Composite only fell to 2167, which was 12 points higher than its yearly low of March 17, 2008. It didn’t fall back to its 2006 levels. It didn’t even fall below its low of March 17, 2008. This is a classical case of “intermarket bullish divergence.” This pattern, in a distorted primary cycle and at the end of a very long and heavily populated geocosmic time band, might account for the strong upsurge that began on July 16, even with Mars in translation to the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition. Typically, primary cycles in the DJIA last 13-21 weeks. Since this one lasted 25 weeks, it was a “distortion” (expansion) of the normal primary cycle. When primary cycles “distort” and occur outside of their normal time band, it is usually followed by powerful rallies that can last several weeks. Now let’s see if this one does the same. Or, in typical Uranus fashion, will this market make another break back down either during or at the end of this “translation” period, which lasts into August 6? Besides that, the Mars-Uranus opposition at the end of this period can coincide with more earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, electrical blackouts, accidents or even a terrorist event. It is not wise to take on risky ventures.

And has anyone noticed that Crude Oil is now falling rapidly since the Sun-Jupiter opposition of July 9, in line with its 18-month cycle low that is due anytime before the end of October? Our call for a $30.00-50.00 decline by October is coming close, as Crude Oil has now declined $25.00 in just two weeks.

Short-Term Geocosmics

 This week begins another critical reversal zone. But this time it is much more limited and therefore focused. From July 26 through August 6, there will be four major geocosmic signatures present. The middle of that period coincides with the solar eclipse of August 1, so there could be a strong “eclipse-effect” upon world financial markets within one trading day. August 1 also coincides with the release of the Unemployment and Payroll reports in the USA. The combination could be dramatic, especially given that it is a solar eclipse in the sign of Leo, the sign of drama. Oftentimes this type of eclipse also has a correspondence to big price swings in grain prices.

Longer-Term Thoughts

Presidential election years in the USA seem to produce unusual market patterns. Conventional wisdom (and a good deal of historical data) holds that the U.S. stock market generally rallies into an election, and then falls into the middle of the President’s four-year term. In actual practice, however, the stock market rallies into an election and tops out afterwards when the same party is voted back into office. If this tendency continues, it would suggest that the low of July 15 would hold, and a new bull market, leading to all-time highs, would be underway and would last into 2009, if Republican John McCain was to be elected. On the other hand, if the Democratic party and its candidate Barack Obama is to be victorious, this would suggest that the U.S. stock market has already topped out. It will not make a new high this year.

But through various studies that I have published, there is also a pattern of the “Pre-Presidential Election Year” trough that occurs between October and March preceding the election. Sometimes this trough can be very unnerving, and expands as late as July. It can even take out the low of the previous year or two. There are only two instances in the past 50 years which have relevance to this year’s election cycle. In 1960, the U.S. stock market also made a low in July, followed by a sharp 4-week rally that did not make a new yearly high. The market then plunged to a 2-year low right into the election. That was the year John F. Kennedy, the young and charismatic Democrat, won a narrow victory over the more experienced Republican, Richard Nixon. The Republicans had held the presidency under Dwight Eisenhower for the prior 8 years. Many believe this year’s 2008 election has many of the same qualities – and themes – as the 1960 one, with many comparisons between the young and charismatic Barack Obama to John F. Kennedy. After the stock market low that formed right near the election date, a new bull market commenced that took the DJIA to record highs in the following 9 months.

The second instance took place in the 1984 election. The incumbent, Ronald Reagan, was mired in a political scandal involving support of Nicaraguan rebels. From an all-time high in October 1983-January 1984, the stock market began a multi-month decline that also lasted into July 1984. It fell to its lowest price since early 1983. But then it suddenly reversed, starting a rally that would carry it to new all-time highs into August 1987. Reagan and the Republicans won re-election in landslide.

What can we learn from the past regarding this year’s election? Any new low in the U.S. stock market between now and the election probably favors an Obama victory. And a new high probably favors a McCain victory. The fact that the DJIA took out its lows of January and March is not a conclusive sign that this is a bear market. There have been instances in the past where this has happened as late as July in an election year, and the market still soared to make new yearly highs shortly afterwards. Very few people expect this, of course, because this is not the “normal” chart pattern. But it has happened before and can still happen again. But if the market makes a new yearly low after July and before (or into) the election, it usually portends a change of party in office. It means the current party in office is losing its power and the support of its people. With a 29% approval rating for the current Republican president – the lowest on record – Republican candidate John McCain has his work cut out for him.

But there is one question I would like to ask Senator McCain (and Senator Obama), given my comments in last week’s column regarding the abundance of aspects in his (McCain’s) chart to the Mars position in the USA chart, and its correlation to expanding military activities if President: Would you re-institute the military draft? Americans (and others around the world) would like to hear some “straight talk” on that question. With Pluto going into Capricorn for 15 years immediately after this election, the symbolism of forced (involuntary) military service is certainly a strong possibility in many countries, including the USA, which has Pluto in Capricorn natally. This can be a signature of excessive nationalistic tendencies by world leaders, to the point of forcing citizens to work for (serve) their countries, even against their will, in the name of patriotism.

 

 

Announcements




The “Forecast 2012” webcast will take place on Sunday, February 19, starting at 1:00 PM EST (that’s 6:00 PM GMT or 10:00 AM PST). Via the modern technology of our webinar host, you can log onto this presentation on current markets (both long-term and short-term outlooks) and the political-psychological climate for 2012, in the comfort of your home or office. All you need is a computer with speakers. You can hear the speech and see the live presentation and slide show, complete with the charts as they are being discussed, on your computer screen. The cost for this special event is $45.00. If you are interested in being part of this unique live webcast, just register at the MMA Website (www.mmacycles.com) and scroll down the opening screen for the announcement. Or drop us an email (ordersmma@msn.com) or fax (248-538-5296), or call us at 1-248-626-3034. Instructions to log into this event will be sent upon making reservations. Reserve early (before February 17), for space will be limited.

Many of you have asked about DVD’s or CD’s on the “Forecast 2012 Mini-Congress on January 21 in Amsterdam that I participated in. On the program were also three other excellent speakers on the subject: Irma Schogt of Schogt Market Timing in Amsterdam, plus world renowned astrologer Katen Hammaker-Zondag (specialist in the future of the Euro zone and Euro currency) and Antonia Langsdorf, of Cologne, Germany, who wrote “The Eye of the Storm,” a best-selling rendition about the year 2012 from the point of view of Mayan schools and astrologers. These recording will soon be available through Irma Schogt. We will announce when they will be available, probably within the week. You check in with us next week, or contact Irma directly at www.markettiming.nl.

 

If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with position trading and aggressive trading recommendations. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, go to http://www.mmacycles.com/services, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers: “I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations.  I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA.  In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000 (now $850,000).  Thanks for your excellent publications.” - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.


Copies of the printed version of Forecast 2012 are still available. There will be no additional printings, so when they are gone, they are gone. This year’s book is 200 pages – our largest ever – and packed full of information about the economy, USA Presidential election, social and economic trends, and of course, financial markets with their all-important three-star critical reversal dates (the one and two-star reversal dates are covered in the MMA Cycles Report, as well as weekly reports). For further information, please go to the front page of our web site at www.mmacycles.com, Or call us at 1-248-626-3034.

The E-Book version of the Forecast 2012 Book is now out as well in two different formats. The first is our own version, which contains both the text and the calendar-ephemeris for 2012. The cost for this is $55.00, or $35.00, depending on whether you also ordered the printed version too.  The second is through Apple iTunes, which covers iPhone 4 and 4S, and the iPad, and also Amazon.com Kindle. The cost is $39.99. It does not contain the advertisements or the planetary calendar and ephemeris in the back. You can now order it if you have an email address registered via one of these 9 countries (USA, UK, Australia, France, Canada, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, and Spain). Just go to iTunes, and then “Library,” then “Store,” then in the field titled “Search,” type in “Forecast 2012” or “Raymond Merriman” (without quotation marks). Or, go to http://itunes.apple.com/us/artist/raymond-merriman/id408289861?mt=11.

“After reading the annual Forecasts and subscribing to MMA Cycles for the past ten years, I can say that Ray Merriman's forecasts are uncannily accurate and indispensable for the preservation of wealth. Nothing else I've seen compares. It is without a doubt the best perspective on the big picture, not just bits and pieces of the picture.”
W.W., Investor and Teacher, Indiana.


Our new 2012 MMA Catalogue is now out!! You can download this catalogue directly at http://www.mmacycles.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=41&Itemid=63.

Events:

February 19, 2012: “Forecast 2012 Worldwide Webcast!!!” This is our annual speech to viewers the world over. It will be the latest update on Raymond Merriman’s annual Forecast Book. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this speech will focus on the current state of the economy, political situation in Washington, DC, and in particular, the financial markets, including: the U.S. stock market, interest rates, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, and Silver. This will be a telecast of the live presentation taking place at the Michigan Education Conference Center in Troy, Michigan on Square Lake Road. The webcast and speech will start at 1:00 PM, EST and last two hours. Cost to participate in the webcast, or to attend in person in Troy, is $45.00. Go to http://www.mmacycles.com/catalogue/multimedia/forecast-2012-live-webcast-february-19,-2012!!!/ for more information.

March 1 and 3, 2012: Hong Kong. “Forecast 2012” on Thursday, March 1, and a full day intensive on “Financial Market Timing” on Saturday, March 3, with emphasis on Gold, Silver, Currencies, and Equity Markets for 2012. Organized by Earlthorn.Com at the Excelsior Hotel, Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Contact Teresa Wong at 852-2529 1211 (phone), or by e-mail at earlthorn@hknet.com. A special 90-minute private meeting with MMA Subscribers will follow the workshop on March 3. You must reserve your space for this meeting with MMA.

March 9-11, 2012: The 12th Annual Balkan International Conference, Belgrade, Serbia. Featuring a pre-seminar workshop with Raymond Merriman. For further information on this fantastic gathering, contact www.keplerunited.org. +381-11-267-31-92 or email info@keplerunited.org.

April 19 and 21, Boulder, Colorado. “Forecast 2012” with Raymond Merriman, plus a workshop on “Financial Market Timing,” focusing on equities and precious metals. Sponsored by ROMA. For more information and registration, contact dralagifts@msn.com. Once again, a private meeting for MMA subscribers will follow the workshop.

May 24-29, 2012: UAC!!! The world’s largest astrological conference. Taking place at the New Orleans Marriott Hotel. Go to www.uacastrology.com. There will be an awesome Financial Track, featuring some of the top Financial Astrologers and researchers in the world. There will be private meeting for MMA on Friday or Sunday evening on the top floor of the Marriott.

June 23: Amsterdam. A special 5-hour workshop on “The Gold Market: Forecasting the Price of Gold” Details to be announced shortly, but mark your calendars for an exciting event in one of the world’s most exciting cities at the most exciting time of the year: the first Uranus-Pluto square!

August 2-6, 2012: Midwest Astrology Conference, in Ann Arbor, MI, Holiday Inn. Pre-seminar workshop on Financial Astrology, Thursday, August 2, with Raymond Merriman. More details soon.

September 14-15, 2012: San Diego: Lecture on world economy and national election, and then a workshop on Financial Market Timing. More details shortly.
details soon.

Disclaimer and statement of purpose:

The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language.

This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world.

It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

Copyright MMACycles 2007; you may link to this site or page, but you may not distribute these texts in any way (by email or otherwise).

Archives

Previous weeklies (2006) are archived at www.olmta.com

For other language editions of MMA´s weekly comments:


Owners of websites:

This Weekly Market Climate is available for co-branding. Call 1-800-662-3349 for details.