Note: Due to my lecture and travel schedule, I will be unable to deliver this free weekly column next week. I am looking forward to seeing many readers of this column in Zurich next Friday and Saturday. This column will be back for the week beginning January 26. Our weekly and daily subscription reports for January 19 will be issued one day later than usual, but in time for the market opening on Monday.

Review and Preview

 
Stock markets around the world followed a similar pattern last week. That is, almost all rallied to new cycle highs by the middle of the week, and then declined the rest of the week. In some case, like in the Untied States, the declines broke below the 25-day moving average, which means the high of Wednesday was at least a major cycle crest (a major cycle crest is the one-third phase to the longer 18-week primary cycle). At the major cycle phase, a “normal” corrective decline is healthy in bull markets, and is the pause before the next surge up begins. In bear markets, however, the major cycle phase can be more than just a “normal” retracement. It can be the resumption of the bear market. So the extent of this decline is important in the determination of whether or not the recent rally was just a “bear trap,” or that “pause that refreshes” the market before the next rally to new monthly highs. With Mercury about to go retrograde, that determination may be an exercise in frustration for traders and analysts alike for the next 2-3 weeks. Very little is clearly understood during Mercury retrograde periods. Usually there just isn’t enough information, facts, or data to make a conclusive determination.

Retracements against the trend of the past seven weeks (since the fifth and final trine of Jupiter and Saturn on November 21) are being witnessed in many other financial markets. Gold and Silver couldn’t break out last week, and started to pull back. Currencies against the U.S. Dollar did the same. Treasuries, which had been selling off steeply since mid-December, started to rally again into Friday’s Employment reports. As expected, that report was very sobering, indicating that the number of jobs lost last year was the most since 1945 in the USA. This is actually the “norm” for Saturn (loss) in Virgo (work), which is in effect September 2007 through October 2009. If unemployment doesn’t go up during these times, work stoppages and strikes do. Crude Oil soared from a low of 32.40 on December 18 to a high of 50.47 last Tuesday, a gain of 62.75% in just three weeks. By Friday, just three days later, crude was back down to 39.38, a decline of almost 22%. According to the rules of some market commentators who insist that 20% moves define bull and bear markets, Crude Oil has been in two bear markets and one bull market in less than a month.

One of the few markets that did fairly well last week was grains, and especially Soybeans. The source of tofu rose to 1040 on Friday in the March contract. That is an impressive rise from the low of 779 back on December 5. With Mercury the ruler of Virgo, and Virgo the sign of grains, the forthcoming Mercury retrograde period could witness a change of trend here.

In the geopolitical realm, the Mars transit of Sagittarius-Capricorn continues to coincide with very dangerous and life-threatening military activity around Israel. The Mars transit of this sector ends February 4, but perhaps the hostilities subside around the time of Obama’s inauguration (January 20). Many analysts are surprised that cease fire agreements can’t seem to hold as of late, but that should be no surprise while Mars is still approaching the middle degrees of Capricorn.

Short-Term Geocosmics

 You thought the worst was over. You thought all that craziness of September was behind us. But get your chill back on because Mercury is about to go retrograde again. You might remember the last time this happened, September 24-October 15. That was when the banking system and the financial markets began their utter craziness. That was when Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said the government needed to take $700B immediately from taxpayer monies in order to rescue the financial system, or economic Armageddon would happen instantly. That was when Obama transformed a 4-point deficit in the Presidential campaign to a double digit lead over Republican John McCain, and then coasted home to victory.

 So what’s happening this time, as Mercury prepares to enter its new retrograde period, January 11-February 1? Well, Obama is about to be inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States on January 20, right in the middle of Mercury retrograde. And just this week, he – not Paulson – warns the Congress that they need to approve his new record-spending deficit program immediately or else we risk …. an economic Armageddon. Same aspect, same message, same players, but different roles. If not careful, Obama may find his honeymoon ends before it officially starts. People love Obama because he inspires, not because he alarms. He won because he was the calm voice in the midst of panic, not because he began to trumpet the panic. Everyone, on the count of three, say a prayer that Obama doesn’t do a “Paulson” and coerce lawmakers to hurry a decision on such important financial matters before the details and ramifications of his proposals are clearly understood. Once again, just like in September 2008, all these leaders would be advised to use this Mercury retrograde time band for reflection and fact-gathering. There just isn’t enough time yet for understanding these requests to make a mature and well-considered decision before February 1. Things are going to change and new ideas and new information is going to come out that is relevant to making a “best” decision. It just isn’t there yet, not under Mercury retrograde. So leaders and leaders-to-be, listen carefully: Mercury is retrograde for three weeks. Chill out! Otherwise you are going to spook equity markets around the world and elicit doubts in your abilities to lead, because you are going to attract opposition. And the voices of the opposition will be heard under Mercury retrograde. This is a time to listen and consider, and not a time to demand action, until all viewpoints are heard and considered. Otherwise there are apt to be errors in judgment and consequences to pay afterwards – just as we are discovering now after what transpired in late September and October, the last time Mercury went retrograde and the TARP (Economic recovery program) was launched and then changed several times immediately afterwards, to the dismay of everyone.

Longer-Term Thoughts

   Assuming Obama gets a grip on the very demeanor he exhibited in September and October that won him the election (maturity, steady, and calm behavior), he will secure the support of the American people, and in fact people all over the world. After all, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune are in a powerful and rare mutual reception all year (January 5, 2009 through January 16, 2010). The last time this occurred was January 5, 1843 through January 17, 1844. You may remember (well, maybe not all of you remember) that was the end of the first leg down in Great Depression that lasted from 1835-1842. Fellow astrologer Matt Carnicelli notes in the ISAR Financial ezine this week (go to www.isarastrology.com to get in on this group), that this was the time President Andrew Jackson set into motion the activities that destroyed the Second Bank of the United States, which led to that period of great economic calamity. The Second Bank of the United States is lot like the Federal Reserve Bank is today. Jackson busted it, just like the FRB may be vulnerable to being busted in the next couple of years with Pluto, then Uranus and Saturn, all making a Grand Square to the FRB Sun-Pluto opposition (2008-2011). Well, in 1843, the market and the country began what looked like an economic recovery following the collapse of the Second Bank. However, it lasted only a few years before the second leg down of that Great Depression commenced and lasted into 1857. The previous time this mutual reception occurred was in 1431 BC to 1430 BC, according to fellow astrologer Sergey TS from the same ISAR Financial ezine group. I don’t remember what happened then, but I am sure it was good for the global economy.

 It’s not like this signature occurs too often. But the dynamics of it can usher in a period of rebound and great hope, when exercised in its positive expression. Jupiter is optimism, Uranus is inspiration and charisma, and Neptune represents ideals and altruism. In Aquarius (and with Uranus involved), matters can improve remarkably, and much better than anyone expects. But in its negative expression, Jupiter is exaggeration, Uranus is alarmist, and Neptune is totally out of control with no boundaries or plans. The combination of all therein could instead coincide with a negative manifestation of panic and hysteria to an extreme. Neptune also rules faith and religion. Like I said before, this is a time for prayer – to pray that our leaders withhold the urge to frighten their populace into making unwise and pre-mature decisions on matters of great financial importance. To do so will make their predictions of economic catastrophe a self-fulfilling prophecy.