REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The global economy is likely to expand this year at the fastest pace in at least four decades as vaccine rollouts accelerate and advanced economies spend aggressively to counter the COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdowns. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 6% this year, the most since 1980. – Yuka Hayashi, “IMF Lifts 2021 Growth Forecast to 6%,” Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2021.
A thousand years ago when money meant coins, China invented paper currency. Now the Chinese government is minting cash digitally, in a re-imagination of money that could shake a pillar of American power. Beijing is also positioning the digital Yuan for international use and designating it to be untethered to the global financial system, where the U.S. dollar is king.– James Areddy, “China is Creating Digital Currency, First for a Major Economy,” Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2021.
It was another positive week for global stocks, consistent with the recent history of the month of April. In 15 of the past 16 years, this has been a favorable month for U.S. stocks. Last week didn’t change that trend. In the U.S., both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P made new all-time highs on Friday, April 9, and the NASDAQ Composite is close to doing the same. In Europe, the Netherlands AEX and German DAX indices made new all-time highs last Tuesday. The Zurich SMI closed less than 30 points away from its all-time high and the FTSE rallied to its highest mark since the pandemic crash of March 2020. There were no new all-time highs in Asia or the Pacific Rim, although their markets were higher than the prior week in most cases. The Australian ASX index also rallied to its highest level since the March 2020 pandemic crash.
In other markets, Corn soared to a new 7-year high as it tested the $6.00 level. Gold had a decent rally to 1759 on Thursday, its highest price since February. Silver could not make the same claim, although it was up from its multi-month low of 23.74 on March 31. Currencies recovered from their recent selloff against the U.S. Dollar, but the Euro still remains below the critical 1.2000 mark. Crude Oil and Bitcoin were relatively quiet last week.
Thus, except for some world stock indices and Corn, it was not a very eventful week. Many equity markets remain well below their all-time or multi-year highs of February 16-18 when Saturn made its first square of the year to Uranus, which is still a case of intermarket bearish divergence. But all that is likely to change in the next month, with more turbulence poised to start this week, following the new moon in Aries this weekend. Markets that rally into new moons are often the ones most vulnerable to sudden reversals.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday made the case for a global minimum tax rate as she pushes President Biden’s plan to increase levies on U.S. corporations in order to fund his $2.25 trillion spending proposal. “Competitiveness is about more than how U.S.-headquartered companies fare against other companies in global merger and acquisition bids,” Yellen said. “It is about making sure that governments have stable tax systems that raise sufficient revenue to invest in essential public goods and respond to crises, and that all citizens fairly share the burden of financing government.” Recent findings from the Tax Foundation show that Biden’s plan to raise corporate taxes would reduce GDP, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the country, by 0.8% and eliminate 159,000 jobs. It would also reduce workers’ wages by 0.7%, the nonpartisan organization said. – Megan Henney, “Yellen to Push for Global Minimum Tax Rate on Corporations,” www.foxbusiness.com/economy, April 5, 2021.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday she wants to end global tax competition. She promises to cooperate with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s efforts to introduce a global minimum tax. The only problem: The OECD isn’t dumb enough to propose anything like the Biden plan. – “Anatomy of a Biden Tax Hike,” Opinion Page, Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2021.
It has been a relatively quiet period in terms of cosmic activity over the past three weeks. There have been no major planetary aspects or stations since March 22, which is the basis for market reversals in the study of Financial Astrology. But as of Friday, April 9, a powerful time band of 11 important geocosmic reversal signatures commences in close proximity to one another, lasting through May 8.
Next week will feature both Venus and the Sun forming a square aspect to Pluto in Capricorn. Both Venus and Pluto have correspondence to currency values, interest rates, and taxes. Is it any wonder that the issue of taxes is front and center in political discourse right now? With Uranus, the planet of technology and disruption, in Taurus, the sign of money, and Venus ruling Taurus, is it any wonder that China is about to introduce a digital Yuan that could disrupt the status of the U.S. Dollar as the standard world currency used for trade?
There is nothing fundamental to stop the surge up in world equity values. Liquidity is strong. Consumers purchase goods and services when they have money. And they will continue to have ample liquidity until the governments of the world start introducing new taxes, which is not that far away. Once the new taxes begin, companies have to re-think their business plans, which include hiring policies, research and development, and other capital expenditures. It is at this juncture that investments pause or stop altogether.
I don’t think many people can fault President Biden for his bold spending plans to thwart the COVID-19 health crisis that began under the great conjunction in Capricorn last March 2020. In fact, most Americans approve of his handling of the pandemic. The surge in liquidity has provided a boon to the American economy and has put small businesses and their employees back to work. This is important because small businesses account for the majority of the work force. In the U.S., Jupiter (planet of growth and expansion) was rising in the spring equinox chart, as it will do again in the summer solstice chart. Briefly stated, the economy and the mood of the country look good through the summer. More people will go back to work, which means the government and its treasury will receive more revenues through current taxes. This is basic supply-side economics, which is the cure for an ailing economy coming out of recession.
However, raising taxes (corporate or individual) as a nation comes out of a recession is not an economic cure (it’s a political ploy). Just as it was unnecessary for the last administration to lower taxes during a period of economic expansion, it is equally unnecessary and probably disruptive to raise taxes right after a period of economic contraction.
Why do I bring this up? It is not because I favor one party over the other. Each party has its strong points, and each has its weaknesses. As I’ve stated before, I believe liberals are too obsessed with what goes on in the boardrooms, while conservatives are too preoccupied with what goes on in the bedrooms.
Most of this nation is socially liberal and fiscally conservative. It is unfortunate that there is not a political party that reflects the combination of these positions that are held by most Americans. It’s all or none. And with Saturn square Uranus, it’s getting more and more extreme and divisive, in spite of campaign promises to work for unity.
Will it ever change? Possibly, when Jupiter enters Pisces May 13-July 28, and then for most of 2022. After all, Jupiter co-rules Pisces, and Jupiter is goodwill and optimism, whereas Pisces is the sign of compassion and compromise. It’s either that or the dominance of big pharma over our lives, for Pisces also rules pharmaceuticals.
If you are looking for a pure money play into 2022, there it is: pharmaceuticals and drugs. They will be plentiful and probably very profitable with Jupiter in Pisces, conjoining Neptune in Pisces. We might end up higher than a kite if we don’t start being accountable for our spending as a nation and as a world. And the biggest problem with being high and heady is that eventually you have to come down. We are going to need a pill for that.
In the meantime, we have some powerful geocosmic trading signatures coming up in the next four weeks. Get ready for some fireworks. It’s springtime in America (and everywhere else in the northern hemisphere) and everyone is ready to break out – including financial markets.
NOTE 1: The next issue of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report will be released this week, Tuesday, April 13-14. Is the 15.5-month cycle topping out now? Or when is it due? That’s the focus on the stock market section of this issue. And what about Gold? Has the 31.33-month cycle bottomed? Every issue provides MMA’s intermediate-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil, and Soybeans. Each issue also contains MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver, complete with trading strategies for position traders during the next month. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Report and wish a copy of our outlook for financial markets, consider trying the April issue for only $35.
NOTE 2: MMA’S FINANCIAL MARKETS WORLD WEBINAR AND FORECASTS 2021 UPDATE WILL TAKE PLACE MAY 22, 2021, 12:00 PM MST: This broadcast will take place on Saturday, May 22, 2021, 3:00 PM EDT (that’s 12:00 PM PDST, 8 PM UK, 9 PM CEDT. 5 AM Tokyo, 6 AM Sydney). In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s Webinar on Financial Markets and Forecasts 2021 Update. This 2.5-hour webinar will give an intermediate-term update on several financial markets that were covered in the Forecast 2021 Book, including the U.S. stock market, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the Euro currency, and Bitcoin. This will be an especially timely presentation because 1) the 12-year Jupiter orbital cycle will be making its first entrance into Pisces on May 13, and 2) May 3-July 9 has been highlighted as one of the more probable times in 2021 for an intermediate-term (and possibly long-term) trend reversal in several financial markets, including world stock indices. Joining Ray to share their outlook will be Ulric Aspegrén (Euro, U.S. Dollar) and Gianni Di Poce (U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil). Ray will be covering equities, metals, and Bitcoin. There will be a Q&A with attendees during this webinar. The cost to attend is $55.00 and includes the slides of the presentation, plus access to the video recording of the event. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will receive the video recording following the live event. See details below, under EVENTS. Or, for more information, go to www.mmacycles.com, Shop> Webinars. Or click here and SIGN UP NOW TO LOCK IN YOUR PLACE for this event!
NOTE 3: MMA is pleased to announce that Great Conjunctions: Shifting Times is now available! Written by Chris McRae, who was one of the world’s leading Mundane Astrologers before her sudden passing to the cloud, this fascinating book on the history of Great Conjunctions involving the outer planets throughout history is of great importance to all astrological historians. It is especially appropriate today because 2020 was such a year exhibiting Great Conjunctions. In fact, the grandest of all outer planet conjunctions – the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle – took place on December 21, 2020, so this book is timely. The insights that McRae provides on these rare but remarkable configurations will make this one of the most valuable additions to the field of Mundane Astrology. The cost is $24.95 plus postage.
MAY 22, 2021, 12:00 PM MST: MMA’S FINANCIAL MARKETS WORLD WEBINAR AND FORECASTS 2021 UPDATE. See Announcements above.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.