REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The ECB meets to decide on rates and bond market intervention. The ECB has guided very clearly that it intends to raise rates by 0.25ppt. A different increase would destroy such credibility as the ECB possesses, without bringing any inflation benefit. Raising by 0.50ppt today would not alter the inflation outlook. Faster tightening can be achieved over time, without sacrificing central bank credibility. – Paul Donovan, Economist, UBS Morning Audio Comment, www.ubs.com/pauldonovan, July 21, 2022.
The European Central Bank on Thursday increased interest rates for the first time in 11 years… The ECB surprised markets by pushing its benchmark rate up by 50 basis points, bringing its deposit rate to zero. Traders had expected a smaller hike of 25 basis points. – Sylvia Amaro, “European Central Bank Surprises Markets With Larger-Than-Expected Rate Hike,” www.cnbc.com, July 21, 2022.
The bulls took the lead in the tug of war for control of the trend in world stock indices last week as major resistance was broken in many markets. This was accomplished even as the European Central Bank raised rates twice as much as they had been stating that they would, and the FED continues to suggest another large rate increase will be enacted next week. Suddenly investors are buying the prospect of higher rates, when very recently they were selling on the same outlook. Why? Because higher rates now mean the probability of a soft landing and no serious recession. It makes you wonder who is creating (and changing) the narrative.
It doesn’t matter, really, because this phenomenon fits the geocosmic cyclical script. With Jupiter in Aries, we expected investors and traders to regain their confidence and become more aggressive buyers than sellers. Jupiter in Aries loves speculation, going against the consensus. The consensus was bearish. Investor sentiment was in the pits. That’s the way Jupiter in Aries likes it. The market was ripe for a turnaround. Additionally, the market was near the end of its time band for an intermediate-term 23-month cycle low. Conditions were exactly what a speculator looks for. The fundamentals will catch up later to these leading indicators (geocosmics and cycles). They almost always lag.
The market behavior was similar throughout most of the world. That is, most indices bottomed around June 17 as Venus conjoined Saturn, as pointed out in this column since that time. And most indices rose to their highest level late last week since those lows in mid-June.
Last week may have been a turnaround in Gold and Silver too. Gold fell to 1678.40 on Thursday, July 21, as Jupiter made its first of three semisquare passages to Saturn. This was right into the support (and buy) zone given to MMA subscribers ever since the highs of March 8 above 2075. By Friday, Gold was up over $50, back to 1738.30. That’s a big move. That’s a Jupiter-in-Aries type of move. At the same time Gold made its low, Silver remained above the 18.01 low it made the prior week, for a case of intermarket bullish divergence.
Bitcoin and Ethereum continued their nice rallies last week, rising to their highest levels since their lows of June 18. So far, this is still a corrective rally, and completely in line with cyclical and lunar patterns as discussed in our recent webinars and Bitcoin reports.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week rose to the highest level in eight months, the latest sign that the historically tight labor market is starting to cool. Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show that applications for the week ended July 16 rose to 251,000 from the 240,000 recorded a week earlier. It marked the highest level for jobless claims since mid-November. – Megan Henney, Jobless Claims Rise to Highest level in 8 Months,” www.foxbusiness.com, July 21, 2022.
We’re in the midst of breath-catching revolutions in how America lives and works. Working from home, as an issue, is still shaking itself out, but its implications are huge. If an entire class of people who used to go to the office stay home, it will upend the commuter model on which modern cities are built, and on which they depend for revenue. Another great question has to do with the shortage of workers. You see this all around you. There aren’t enough people to fill available jobs. – Peggy Noonan, “The ‘Great Resignation’ Started Long Ago,” Wall Street Journal Online, July 21, 2022.
It was hot in Europe last week. I mean it was really hot, even for this urban cowboy who lives in the desert land of Arizona. In fact, England recorded its highest temperature on record going back to the 17th century. Here in Amsterdam, temps rose above 100° Fahrenheit, something I haven’t seen in the past 25 years since I’ve been spending part of my summers here. It is one of my favorite cities in the world.
Many will cite this record heat wave as further proof of global warming. But in my world, this is a reflection of Jupiter (exaggeration) in Aries (hot) turning stationary retrograde next week (July 28), as Mars (hot) is also moving rapidly to its conjunction with Uranus (record-breaking) and square Saturn (discomfort), August 1-7. Last week found the Moon also in Aries (hot), and headed to Mars (hot) in Taurus, when the triple digit temperatures occurred. It may not be over. Mars in a hard aspect to Saturn (August 7), has a strong correlation to extremely hot or cold temperatures within two weeks when occurring in the summer months, regardless of hemisphere.
In addition to their history with weather and disturbing events of nature (like earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, electrical blackouts and high winds), hard aspects from the Sun and Mars to Saturn and Uranus can also exhibit themes of major surprises and disruptions in political, economic, and banking matters. As discussed last week, there is “a whole lotta shakin’ going on.” It’s coming as we are about to enter a “high disturbance” geocosmic zone. It’s already in the geocosmic orb of influence. If you are seeking stability and safety, this is not the time to be complacent or asleep. If you prefer excitement and maybe some chaos, this is for you.
In the meantime, the ‘whole lot of shakin’ got underway in several markets as Jupiter made its first of three waxing semi-square (45°, 1/8 cycle phase) transits to Saturn on Thursday, July 21. That’s when the reversal and shake-outs became apparent. Not only did the bulls take it to the bears in stock indices until Friday, but they did the same in Gold, Silver, and currencies. It was the “revenge of the bulls” week. These are either reversal or breakout signatures, and right now, they look like important reversals.
Our recent studies of this 20-year Jupiter/Saturn aspect show a remarkable correlation to intermediate-term cycle lows in the DJIA within a short period of time (thank you to MMTA student and soon-to-be graduate Vincent Wang of Singapore for his work on this research). The low of June 17 fits within this time band for an intermediate-term cycle trough. The “hot zone” is July 21-September 21, +/- 1 month.
The last time this semi-square aspect unfolded was in 2002-2003, with its first two passages in October 2002 and March 2003. This was when several global stock indices completed their 6- or 18-year cycle lows. You may remember that the NASDAQ completed an 80% decline from its high in early 2000 to its low in October 2002 as this aspect made its first passage then. Its second passage was in March 2003, which is when European markets bottomed as the Iraqi War began, initiated by the U.S. under false premises. The other instances were not quite as dramatic, but still impressive. BTW, we will be covering this correlation in greater detail, and its implication for the next 1-5 years, at our MMA 2022 Trading & Investment Retreat on September 9-11 in Troy, Michigan (see Announcements below). If you are seriously interested in what these studies suggest about the future of financial markets (stocks, currencies, metals, interest rates, cryptos), this will be a rare and unique opportunity to learn and develop your long-term investment or short-term trading plans.
This week is also significant because it contains three Jupiter transits. In addition to Jupiter turning stationary retrograde on July 29, Venus will square the Big Guy on July 25 and the Sun will make a trine with king of the planetary gods on July 31. There is also a new Moon in the fire sign of Leo (July 28). Now, normally when a market is rising into such a patch of planetary exuberance and exaggeration, it correlates with a crest. But there are many occasions when, instead, it coincides with a low, after which another strong rally unfolds. Last year, for instance, the Japanese Nikkei Index fell to its 16.5-month cycle low on August 20, 2021, when Jupiter and Uranus were also prominent. The Nikkei made its 16.5-month cycle low at 26,954 then. Three weeks later, on September 14, 2021, it was up to 30,795, a 14% gain and a new 30-year highs. It has never reached that level since. Something like that could happen again.
This is the summer of fireworks, heat waves, excitement, chaos and volatility. It’s carefree and careless in a world of dangers and disruptions. Some like it hot. Others who don’t better get out of the heat. Markets can be wild. This is not likely to be a summer of love. But it may be a summer of passion, protests, and living on the wild side. There could be a whole lot more shakin’ comin’ up.
NOTE 1: THE JULY ISSUE OF THE MMA Monthly Cycles Report Plus+ will be released this week! Written by Pouyan Zolfagharnia, this has become a very popular addition to the MMA Cycles Report (less technical, more visual, high-quality analysis and update on MMA Cycles Report markets). Readers love it! Pouyan will update our take on financial markets since the last issue of the MMA Cycles Report in a very visually attractive and easy-to-read format with excellent analysis.
NOTE 2: You asked for it and now it’s coming! The new MMA ETF Monthly Cycles Report will be launched on August 17! Written by MMTA director Gianni Di Poce, this report will cover SPY (S&P stock market), GDX (Gold), BITO (Bitcoin), TLT (Treasuries), USO Crude Oil ETF), XLV (Health groups), XLK (Technology), and XHB (home builders, real estate). Now you can get our cycles and geocosmic outlooks for the most popular and traded ETFs, which trade like stocks on the major exchanges. A great compliment to the monthly MMA Cycles Report. Stay tuned for further details and a special introductory offer for this new monthly market report from MMA!
NOTE 3: TUNE INTO MMA’S NEW WEEKLY YouTube Channel on the geocosmic climate related to financial markets hosted by MMTA Educational Director Gianni Di Poce. The video is recorded late Friday night and posted then or early Saturday, depending on the editing process. These 5-15 minute video presentations review market activity of the past week and offer a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. You may subscribe to MMA’s YouTube Channel today at no cost and get announcements when each geocosmic market review is ready for viewing! To see this week’s program, click here.
NOTE 4: ONLY 7 MORE WEEKS! THE MMA TRADING AND INVESTMENT RETREAT, Troy, Michigan, at the Michigan State University Education Center will take place September 9-11, 2022. MARK THE DATE! This special 3-day event will feature a long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term analysis of several financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, Gold, Bitcoin, Euro, T-Notes, and Crude Oil, plus others to be determined. It will also go into depth with the MMA trading plan – how to use the daily and weekly report data points – and how we assess each market and determine the trading strategy for each day based on MMA’s cycles analysis, geocosmic studies, solar/lunar studies, combined with chart patterns, price targets, and technical studies. Raymond Merriman and Gianni di Poce will be leading these discussions and presentations. Attendance of non-students will be limited, and special rates will be available to subscribers of MMA reports (monthly, weekly, or daily). If you are a short-term trader, or an investor interested in the longer- and intermediate-term outlook, this is a special event you will not want to miss! It is an opportunity not only to see and hear the forecasts for several financial markets, but also an opportunity to connect with those who have studied and apply the MMA methodology of market analysis and market timing. It doesn’t mean you have to be a student to benefit from this event, but you will be able to hear the outlooks of those who do. This is a one-of-its-kind opportunity and a chance to really get deeply into the outlook for the next five years! For information and registration click here. Or drop us an email at email@example.com. An added feature will be “Determining Your Best and Most Challenging Times for Trading Via Transits to your Natal Chart.”
NOTE 5: Some of you may be interested in listening to the excellent podcasts of Thomas Miller, called “Fun Astrology.” Every Saturday he leads a podcast discussing the MMA weekly column that you are reading here. He simplifies it for beginning astrologers and students of markets and trading. I like it because 1) it is educational, and 2) Thomas is an excellent broadcaster/speaker. He has experience in broadcasting, astrology, and financial markets. His podcast on our weekly column are usually uploaded on Saturdays at https://funastrology.com/. Check it out. I think you will like what he is doing as well.
ONLY 5 MORE WEEKS! AUGUST 25, 2022: 1:00 PM, Denver, CO, ISAR Conference, 4-Hour Pre-Conference Workshop by Raymond Merriman on “ASTROLOGY AND THE ART OF FINANCIAL MARKET TIMING: HOW TO FORECAST TRENDS AND MARKET REVERSALS.” Here is your chance to attend the only live one-day workshop on Financial Astrology that Ray Merriman is giving this year! Financial markets offer objective means to test astrological validity. The Moon changes signs every 2-3 days and is valuable for short-term trading. Planetary stations and aspects identify longer-term market reversals. Approximately 4-5 times/year, markets will form important highs or lows, which are the most favorable times to buy and sell for position traders. This course provides research studies showing the correlation of astrological factors to short-term and longer-term financial markets. These studies are important to one’s investment and trading planning. The focus will be on stock markets, precious metals (Gold and Silver), and Bitcoin, and how to integrate astrology with cycle studies to attain optimal market timing advantage. Visit https://isar2022.org/schedule/ for further information and register for a great event! For a video description of this workshop via interview between Ray Merriman and Conference Coordinator Laura Nalbandian, click this link: https://youtu.be/kBxYZ_VpckA.
September 9-11, 2022: THE MMA TRADING AND INVESTMENT RETREAT, Troy, Michigan, at the Michigan State University Education Center. SAVE THE DATE! This special 3-day event will feature long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term analysis of several financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Euro, T-Notes, and Crude Oil, plus others to be determined. Led by Raymond Merriman, MMA President, and Gianni Di Poce, MMTA Education Director, this retreat will also go into depth with the MMA trading plan – how to use the daily and weekly report data points – and how we assess each market and determine the trading strategy for each day/week based on MMA’s market timing methods. If you are a short-term trader, or an investor interested in the longer- and intermediate-term outlook, this is a special event you will not want to miss! For information and registration, click here. Or drop us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.