REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The world of crypto has had another of its periodic convulsions. Does the bursting bubble (again) matter? Building a bubble transfers genuine wealth from bubble buyers to bubble sellers. Someone who sold Bitcoin at USD 70,000 locked in the wealth they received, and they now hold an asset (dollars) of economic value. The buyer, who thought they had something worth USD 70,000, now holds something that, if not worthless, is worth less. Normally economists worry about wealth loss. Sudden drops in wealth make people feel very bad. Loss aversion exaggerates the importance of the loss. This encourages higher savings and lower consumption. – Dr. Paul Donovan, “Does Bursting the Bitcoin Bubble Matter?” UBS Weekly Blog, www.ubs.com/cio, May 13, 2022.
Anyone can create a virtual currency, market it to investors and use the money as he pleases. While fiat currencies such as the dollar are backed by governments, crypto currencies are backed by the faith in their developers. What could go wrong? Investors found out this week.( Editor’s note – fiat currencies are also only backed by people’s faith in their government). –Wall Street Journal Opinion Page, “Warnings From the Crypto Crash,” May 13, 2022.
It may have been Friday the 13th but the equity markets weren’t spooked by the Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde show that’s been playing recently. Or maybe this was an inverted case of being spooked because of Mercury retrograde. Many markets will appear upside down under the Trickster’s reign. In any case, the carnage of the past six weeks paused after Thursday’s new cycle low. Friday reversed all that and was a strong up day. But will it last or just be another one-day wonder as the market’s personality changes again?
For many indices, the sell-off that ended Thursday represented a new yearly low. For others, it was a challenge to the previous lows made between January 24 and March 9 of this year. It was a nervous week for investors and traders, every bit as wacky and wild as the Trickster turning retrograde in the wild and wacky sign of Gemini (its ruling sign) would suggest – and even more so following the even more disruptive nature of the Sun/Uranus conjunction the week before on May 5. That just happened to also be in the middle of the two-week eclipses (April 30 and May 15-16). In other words, this is an intense schizoid cosmic time band.
It wasn’t just the Sun/Uranus, Mercury retrograde, and 2-week eclipse season at work either. There was also a semi-square to Uranus from the big dog of the universe: Jupiter. Everything that is ‘big,’ ‘large,’ or ‘excessive’ appeals to Jupiter. Jupiter is the lord of not only opportunity when he is in a “jovial’ mood, but also exaggeration and panic when he is riled. And when in contact with Uranus, nothing is stable and everything is vulnerable to breaking down, or in market terminology, breaking out. In other words, support and/or resistance zones nearby are usually broken, and indeed that happened in several financial and stock markets throughout the world last week.
Bitcoin (and other cryptos) was one of the casualties. It collapsed down to nearly $25,000 on Thursday, its lowest price since December 2020, and in line with our projections made in our last week’s webinar, where a test of $25,000 was called for (and probably lower before this year is out). The previous week (Thursday, May 5), Bitcoin was trading close to $40,000, so last week’s plunge was big news. Jupiter loved it. Mortals invested in Bitcoin hated it. They panicked, which is the name of the show when Uranus is involved too, and maybe more so with Mercury turning retrograde in Gemini in the midst of the two eclipses. I mean, this was like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde on a cocktail of steroids and methamphetamines. Drugs, by the way were also in the news last week as a record number of drug overdoses was reported, associated with Jupiter in Pisces over the past year, especially conjunct Neptune last month.
But back to the markets. All U.S. equity markets fell to new cycle lows last Thursday, May 12, one day following Jupiter entering Aries and Mercury turning retrograde and unleashing the genie (i.e., the Trickster) from the bottle. All had strong rallies on Friday, and it was a sudden switch from depression and panic to optimism and willingness to take a risk, from Pisces to Aries. No other major international equity market we track here made new yearly lows. It was only in America, where the White House and Congress are still debating how to “Build Back Better” America. The harder they try, it seems the farther and faster they fall. But there are people to blame for that, which with Gemini highlighted, leaders are quite adroit to exploit.
In Europe, all major indices fell rather hard, but remained well above their lows of March 7. The London FTSE was especially resilient, scoring a big Friday rally after their government signed a treaty with a promise to defend both Finland and Sweden in case of an attack.
In Asia and Australia, large declines ended on Thursday and held above their lows of January-March. China was interesting because it rallied last week following its recent low two weeks earlier. The nation is in lockdown in an attempt to stop the advance of COVID. But maybe they are succeeding in stopping the huge sell off they experienced at the low of April 27, its lowest mark since May 2020. We will talk more about that in this week’s monthly issue of the MMA China Cycles Report (see Announcements).
In other markets, Crude Oil resumed its bull market, closing the week above 110. One month ago, it was trading at 92.93. But precious metals and the Euro currency did not fare well at all. The Euro fell to 1.0340 on Friday, just one tick above its multi-year low of 1.0339 on January 6, 2017. Gold fell briefly below $1800 on Friday, well down from its yearly high and double top to its all-time high of 2078 on March 8. Silver got crushed as well, falling to 20.42 on Friday, its lowest price since July 2020, and again in line with our discussions in last week’s special Spring Webinar on Financial Markets. If you weren’t there, it would be advised to get a recording of that event. It is still highly relevant.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
The bad news is that in April, for the second month, inflation clocked in above 8%. The good news is that sometime in the next 12 months, it will likely fall to around half that. Only twice since the late 1940’s has inflation risen as much as in the past year, and both were periods like the present, when supply shocks hit a hot economy.– Greg Ip, “Inflation is Headed Lower – But How Low?” Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2022.
“…tax revenue is booming. Federal receipts through April rose an astonishing $843 billion from a year earlier, to nearly $3 trillion… thanks to economic growth and inflation that boosts nominal incomes. The feds are getting more than their “fair” share. All of this adds up to boom times in the Beltway, but Mr. Biden still wants a record tax increase. Isn’t a 39% raise enough? Wall Street Journal Opinion Page, “Why the Budget Deficit is Falling,” May 13, 2022.
Mercury retrograde, the Trickster, will be with us until June 3. Whatever we say – whatever anyone says – is subject to revision and modification until then. So, let’s just skip ahead and look at a very serious cosmic gathering that will take place September 21-28, with the awareness that such an important meeting will need up to two months to manifest fully. This is when Saturn will return to within less than one degree (less than 40’of one degree) of an exact square to Uranus. But that is not the entire picture being painted on the heavenly canvas. Jupiter will be midway between these two powerhouses, i.e., the midpoint. And, in a semi-square to each, with Jupiter in the combative (or pioneering and original) sign of Aries. This suggests something “big” again (remember: Jupiter likes things “big”). And it is with Uranus, which likes things on the chaotic side and very loud. And it is also with Saturn, which is structure. It’s like a “big bang,” maybe a breakthrough for science and astronomy (we had such a revelation this week with the first black hole image from the center of the Milky Way galaxy).
Even now, in the past week, we see Jupiter making its first of three semi-squares to Uranus (May 10-11, September 28, and December 13, and allowing 10 days on either side for a “manifestation”). We are seeing how this aspect correlates to huge price movements (down in this case) to world equity markets. But it can be just the opposite, too, for in 2021 when Saturn squared Uranus three times, global stock markets made new all-time or multi-year highs. In this case, we need to be prepared for either: a crash or a huge rally to new multi-year highs, and then another reversal.
We know what would cause a stock market crash at that time. It would probably be something in the economy, an economic report that shows the economy in a recession. Or a disturbance and change caused by the mid-term election. But what would cause a huge stock market rally? With Jupiter in Aries, it might be the end to the Russian/Ukraine war, with a Ukraine victory. If that happened, can you imagine how investors would react? Try to, for it is a real possibility. Or on the hand, if Russia prevailed and Ukraine was overtaken, could you imagine what would happen to world equity markets?
I don’t know which result will prevail. But given my knowledge of cycles and the belief that we are near an intermediate-term cycle low of importance in stocks, which would be followed by a sharp 2-6 month rally (or more), I have an opinion (don’t we all). With Biden’s popularity so dismal and everyone predicting a mid-term Republican landslide, and with Biden being under Neptune transiting in a grand trine (favorable) to his natal Venus and Jupiter, a signature of extreme “luck,” it is perhaps the one “good thing” (i.e., a stroke of luck) that could rescue the midterm elections for his party (and the fate of his son). He needs a Ukrainian victory more than he needs a tax increase. To me, it’s no wonder he is suddenly in favor of loosening the purse strings of support for Ukraine. His legacy depends upon victory (so does Putin’s), and maybe so does the survival of the entire world. But I am not sure which is more important to a politician.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
NOTE 1: MMA’S ANNUAL SPRING FINANCIAL MARKETS UPDATE TOOK PLACE ON SUNDAY, MAY 8, 2022. This 3-hour webinar (with two 5-minute breaks) provided valuable information, insight, and strategies for intermediate- and short-term traders on several financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, T-Notes, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the Euro currency, Bitcoin and Soybeans. It was an especially timely presentation because 1) the 12-year Jupiter orbital cycle will be making its first entrance into Aries on May 10, and 2) May 27-June 22 has been highlighted as one of the more probable times in 2022 for major moves in Bitcoin as well as several other financial markets and 3) May 6-9 (right now) is an important CRD (geocosmic critical reversal date zone). Joining Ray were Ulric Aspegrén (MMA Currency expert on Euro, U.S. Dollar) and Gianni Di Poce (MMA expert analysis on U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil and Soybeans). Ray covered equities, metals, and Bitcoin, plus a geocosmic overview of the important time bands in effect the rest of 2022.. There are several questions asked by attendees and addressed. This recording of this webinar is now available and includes the slides of the presentation. For more information, click here and ORDER your copy of this mid-blowing outlook for several financial markets based on geocosmic and cyclical studies for the remainder of 2022.
NOTE 2: THE NEXT ISSUE of the English version of the Monthly Chinese Shanghai Composite Report will be released THIS WEEK, May 17-18! We are pleased to announce that there is now an ETF with the symbol ASHR that is an index tracking 300 of the largest and most liquid Chinese shares and closely follows the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE). As our most sophisticated and experienced global traders know, China’s financial markets are critical to the global economy, and are going through a major challenge right now. Each monthly report of this important market is 5-8 pages in length and includes daily and weekly charts, with a list of geocosmic indicators and critical reversal dates for the next several weeks, and what to expect. These reports also include an additional feature on the solar/lunar signals in effect each month for the SSE based on current studies underway by MMTA student Yating Hu. These identify the 2-4 most likely periods, lasting 1-3 days each month, when the probability is greatest for trading cycle highs and lows based on the historical studies of the SSE since its inception in December 1990.
The subscription rates for this MMA SSE monthly report are:
1 year = $275
3 months = $95
1 issue = $35
For a subscription to this service, please visit www.mmacycles.com and go to shop> subscriptions and scroll down to this report. Or click here.
NOTE 3: THE MAY ISSUE OF THE MMA+ Addendum to this MMA Monthly Cycles Report (scroll down the scroll bar) will be released in two weeks! Written by Pouyan Zolfaharnia, this has become a very popular addition to the MMA Cycles Report (less technical, more visual, high quality analysis and update on MMA Cycles Report markets). This is a very popular and valuable addition to monthly MMA Cycles Report. Readers love it!
NOTE 4: TUNE INTO MMA’S NEW WEEKLY YouTube Channel on the geocosmic climate related to financial markets hosted by MMTA Educational Director Gianni di Poce. The video is recorded late Friday night and posted then or early Saturday, depending on the editing process. These 5-15 minute video presentations review the market activity of the past week and offer a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. You may subscribe to MMA’s YouTube Channel today at no cost and get announcements when each geocosmic market review as itis ready for viewing! Ulric Aspegrén, MMA Euro Currency analyst, was the guest last Friday May 6, and Ray Merriman will be the guest this week, May 13. To view this week’s show, click here.
“Just a quick word to say your (Gianni’s) weekly video on YouTube is really a great complementary format to Ray’s letter. I find it interesting and masterfully delivered. Thanks to both of you for this!” M.K., Paris, France, Portfolio Manager.
NOTE 5: THE MAY ISSUE OF THE MMA Monthly Cycles Report was released last week and contained a longer and intermediate-term outlook on stocks! Every issue provides MMA’s intermediate-term investors and near-term traders outlook for the U.S. stock market, Gold, Silver, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil, and Soybeans. Each issue also contains MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver, complete with trading strategies for position traders during the next month. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Report and would like a copy of MMA’s outlook for financial markets, consider trying the March issue for only $35. For an additional $20, you can receive both the MMA Cycles Report and the MMA Cycles + Addendum that will come out May 24.
EVENTS
AUGUST 25, 2022: 1:00 PM, Denver, CO, ISAR Conference, 4-Hour Pre-Conference Workshop by Raymond Merriman on “ASTROLOGY AND THE ART OF FINANCIAL MARKET TIMING: HOW TO FORECAST TRENDS AND MARKET REVERSALS.” Financial markets offer objective means to test astrological validity. The Moon changes signs every 2-3 days and is valuable for short-term trading. Planetary stations and aspects identify longer-term market reversals. Approximately 4-5 times/year, markets will form important highs or lows, which are the most favorable times to buy and sell for position traders. This course provides research studies showing the correlation of astrological factors to short-term and longer-term financial markets. The focus will be on stock markets, precious metals (Gold and Silver), and Bitcoin, and how to integrate astrology with cycle studies to attain optimal market timing skills. Visit https://isar2022.org/schedule/ for further information and register for a great event! For a video description of this workshop via interview between Ray Merriman and Conference Coordinator Laura Nalbandian, click this link https://youtu.be/kBxYZ_VpckA.
September 9-11, 2022: THE MMA TRADING AND INVESTMENT RETREAT, Troy, Michigan, at the Michigan State University Education Center. SAVE THE DATE! This special 3-day event will feature a long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term analysis of several financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, Gold, Bitcoin, Euro, T-Notes, and Crude Oil, plus others to be determined. It will also go into depth the MMA trading plan– how to use the daily and weekly report data points – and how we assess each market and determine the trading strategy for each day based on MMA’s cycles analysis, geocosmic studies, solar/lunar studies, combined with chart patterns, price targets, and technical studies. This retreat is required for all graduating students of MMTA (the Merriman Market Timing Academy), some of whom will be presenting their own original research and analysis of markets to be discussed by instructors Raymond Merriman and Gianni di Poce. Attendance to non-students will be limited, and special rates will be available to subscribers of MMA reports (monthly, weekly, or daily). If you are a short-term trader, or an investor interested in the longer- and intermediate-term outlook, this is a special event you will not want to miss. It is an opportunity to not only learn about the future outlook for several financial markets, but also an opportunity to connect with those who understand and have mastered the MMA methodology of market analysis and market timing. This is a one-of-its-kind opportunity! Details for registration will be available on MMA’s website shortly. Or, to get on the early release announcement, drop us an email at customerservice@mmacycles.com.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.