REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Gross domestic product unexpectedly declined at a 1.4% annualized pace in the first quarter, marking an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. A plethora of factors conspired to weigh against growth during the first three months of 2022, which fell off a cliff following the 6.9% gain to close out last year. Rising Covid omicron infections to start the year hampered activity across the board, while inflation surging at a level not seen since the early 1980s and the Russian invasion of Ukraine also contributed to the economic stasis. – Jeff Cox, “U.S.” GDP Fell at a 1.4% Pace to Start the Year,” www.cnbc.com, April 28, 2022.
He (Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff) argued that if the Federal Reserve does not “hike a lot, there is going to be inflation and if they do, there is going to be a massive recession.” The economist made the comment shortly after it was revealed that gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, fell at a 1.4% annualized rate in the three-month period from January through March, noting that the number is “even below the worst” he thought it might have been.– Talia Kaplan, “U.S. Economy Shrinking at Start of 2022 is ‘Shocking:’ Harvard Economist” www.foxbusinesnews.com, April 28, 2022.
It’s not like readers of this column and prior webinars were unaware of the economic danger before Thursday’s “shocking” report on the negative GDP. Last week’s column had reiterated this outlook, stating, “Something is not right in the world of financial markets today. As the Fed continues to loudly again wave the flag of its commitment to fight inflation by raising rates aggressively (while at the same time reducing liquidity by ending its quantitative easing programs), thereby risking an economic downturn…”
In the upside down reality of today’s dangerous, fragile economic situation, the bad news was good news for the stock market. This “Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde” market behavior is not a promising sign for the bulls. A characteristic of a bear market is to see sharp rallies that don’t last, followed by a plunge to lower lows.
Last week was a prime example of the stock market’s inability to sustain any upside momentum as shown by the DJIA. On Monday, it fell to a new 6-week low but then reversed and closed up 238 points. On Tuesday it fell to another 6-week low, closing down 809. Another new multi-week low happened on Wednesday but then it reversed and closed up 61 points, followed by Thursday’s powerful rally of 614 points. On Friday, it collapsed again, down 939. Despite the declines, the low of February 24 continues to hold in the DJIA and S&P. The NASDAQ, however, fell to its lowest low in over a year. The declines were just as severe in China, where the Shanghai Composite fell to its lowest level since June 2020 amidst a challenging effort to control the spread of a new Covid outbreak. But the decline in other world equity markets was much less severe than in the U.S. or China. In fact, many look like normal corrective declines in a bullish trend, and so far, not the threat of a new bearish campaign. Then again, other economies are not witnessing the extremely high rate of inflation with the prospect of sharply rising interest rates looming ahead, nor are they embarking upon zero Covid governmental policies that are disrupting the flow of their production of goods, as is the case in the U.S. and China respectively, the world’s largest two economies.
Gold and Silver also had difficult weeks until Friday. Gold sold off to a low of 1870 on Thursday, April 28, its lowest price since mid-February, and down considerably from its recent high of 2003 the prior week. Silver briefly dipped below 23.00 Thursday and Friday, its lowest level since mid-February and well down from its recent high of 26.50 the previous week. Bitcoin also struggled last week, falling below 38,000, but starting to show signs of support. Crude Oil, on the other hand, rallied smartly as the Russia-Ukraine conflict rages on with no end in sight, and with Jupiter soon to enter the sign of Aries. Aries and its ruler Mars have dominion over the theater of war, and in late May they conjoin one another in Aries. This is a rare combination. The last three times corresponded to World War II (1940), the end of the Vietnam War (1975), and the Arab Spring (2011). We will discuss this in more detail in our May 8 webinar (see Announcements below or click here).
“Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong.” – Buffalo Springfield, “For What it is Worth.” 1966.
The manic-depressive nature of last week’s stock market reflects the cosmic conflict between the Venus/Jupiter/Neptune conjunction (optimism and euphoria turned to hysteria and panic) of last week and the transit of Saturn in a T-square with the lunar nodes in Scorpio and Taurus (pessimism, anxiety, connected with debt and the slowing economy), and with each connecting to the Mercury/Pluto fixed square in the chart of the New York Stock Exchange. Every rally is brief, followed by a surrender of all gains to lower prices. Until that pattern changes, this is bearish. The next 1-2 weeks are likely to be a cosmic challenge for world equity markets, and especially U.S. indices, to break that pattern as the Sun will conjoin Uranus on May 5, followed by Mercury turning retrograde in its ruling sign of Gemini on May 10, lasting through June 3. This does not portend market stability, and it can be compounded in late May as Mars (war themes) conjoins Jupiter (possibility of a large offensive) in Aries on May 29 +/- 1 week.
Our immediate attention will be on the Sun/Uranus conjunction in Taurus on May 5, which precedes the monthly payroll reports of the following day. This is one of the most powerful Level 1 geocosmic signatures with an 83% historical correlation to primary cycles within a range of 14 trading days, and most often within only 4 trading days. But before it reverses, it can also coincide with a dramatic breakout of important support or resistance. Mercury turning retrograde also highlights periods when support and resistance zones are vulnerable to being broken, only to be followed by sudden reversals. Since the stock market is closer to important lows than highs, this becomes a concern.
The Sun and Uranus together present a geocosmic conundrum. The Sun is symbolic of leadership, but Uranus symbolizes revolt and rebellion against leadership. Together they can indicate instability related to conflicting visions as to what must be done. In Taurus, this pertains to economic and financial matters. Hence we find some nations adhering to policies designed to reduce inflation at the risk of an economic downturn, and others following a policy to support economic growth (and avoid a recession) at the risk of rising inflation. The result is turmoil in currency markets, which had led to a very strong U.S. Dollar against all other major currencies, plus the insistence by Russia to be paid in Rubles and not U.S. Dollars or the Euro. However, this bullish dollar trend has been quite common since the 1980’s when a Democrat occupies the White House, which will continue into January 2025 (allow an orb of six months for a peak).
On a more hopeful note, the Sun/Uranus conjunction also pertains to themes of innovation and new solutions to existing problems. It is a time when “thinking out of the box” can lead to new policies that envision a brighter future, but perhaps a little ahead of their time to garner enough support in the present.
In terms of financial markets, the Sun-Uranus conjunction might correspond to something exciting regarding technology and outer space. This special conjunction can also produce “aha!” moments of awakening to those who have the capacity to be inspired, to visualize a brighter future that is more inclusive and connected. After all, our collective well-being depends more on working together to build a strong global economy that helps one another grow than on the threat to annihilate one another with a nuclear attack. As mentioned last week, I am optimistic regarding the majority of outer planets now in their “waxing” (growth) phase for the first time in many years. Since late 2020, we are no longer cosmically “waning” as a human race. But we still have to recognize the opportunities and choose to move in that direction, which I think is slowly happening and will be visible by the time Jupiter moves into Taurus in one year (May 2023) followed by Uranus and Pluto moving into air signs (2023-2025), and trine to each other (2026-2028).
The seeds of another renaissance are being planted now.
NOTE 1: ONLY ONE MORE WEEK! MMA’S ANNUAL SPRING FINANCIAL MARKETS UPDATE WILL TAKE PLACE MAY 8, 2022, 1:30 PM EDT: This broadcast will take place on Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 1:30 PM EDT (that’s 10:30 AM PDT, 6:30 PM UK, 7:30 PM CDT. 2:30 AM Tokyo, 3:30 AM Sydney). In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into MMA’s Annual Spring Webinar on Financial Markets. This 3-hour webinar (with two 5-minute breaks) is an incredible bargain at only $55 and will provide an intermediate-term update on several financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the Euro currency, Bitcoin and Soybeans. This will be an especially timely presentation because 1) the 12-year Jupiter orbital cycle will be making its first entrance into Aries on May 10, and 2) May 27-June 22 has been highlighted as one of the more probable times in 2022 for major moves in Bitcoin as well as several other financial markets and 3) this is an important CRD (geocosmic critical reversal date zone). Joining Ray will be Ulric Aspegrén (Euro, U.S. Dollar) and Gianni Di Poce (U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil and Soybeans). Ray will be covering equities, metals, and Bitcoin. There will be a 20-minute Q&A with attendees during this webinar. The cost to attend is $55.00, an incredible value for this event, and includes the slides of the presentation, plus access to the video recording afterwards. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will receive the video recording following the live event. For more information, click here and SIGN UP NOW TO LOCK IN YOUR PLACE for this event!
NOTE 2: TUNE INTO MMA’s NEW WEEKLY YouTube Channel on the geocosmic climate related to financial markets hosted by MMTA Educational Director Gianni di Poce. The video is recorded late Friday night and posted then or early Saturday, depending on the editing process. These 5-15 minute video presentations review the market activity of the past week and offer a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. You may subscribe to MMA’s YouTube Channel today at no cost and get announcements when each geocosmic market review as itis ready for viewing! Ulric Aspegrén, MMA Euro Currency analyst, will be the guest on May 6, followed by Ray Merriman on May 13. To view this week’s show, click here.
“Just a quick word to say your (Gianni’s) weekly video on YouTube is really a great complementary format to Ray’s letter. I find it interesting and masterfully delivered. Thanks to both of you for this!” M.K., Paris, France, Portfolio Manager.
MAY 8, 2022: MMA’S ANNUAL FINANCIAL MARKETS UPDATE WILL TAKE PLACE on Sunday, May 8, 2022 at 1:30 PM EDT (that’s 10:30 AM PDT, 6:30 PM UK, 7:30 PM CDT. 2:30 AM Tokyo, 3:30 AM Sydney). This 3-hour webinar (with two 5-minutes breaks) will give an intermediate-term update on several financial markets, including the U.S. stock market, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the Euro currency, Bitcoin and Soybeans. Joining Ray to share their outlook will be Ulric Aspegrén (Euro, U.S. Dollar) and Gianni Di Poce (U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil and Soybeans). Ray will be covering equities, metals, and Bitcoin. There will be a Q&A with attendees during this webinar. The cost to attend is $55.00 and includes the slides of the presentation, plus access to the video recording of the event. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will receive the video recording following the live event. For more information, click here and SIGN UP NOW TO LOCK IN YOUR PLACE for this event!
AUGUST 25, 2022: 1:00 PM, Denver, CO, ISAR Conference, 4-Hour Pre-Conference Workshop by Raymond Merriman on “ASTROLOGY AND THE ART OF FINANCIAL MARKET TIMING: HOW TO FORECAST TRENDS AND MARKET REVERSALS.” Financial markets offer objective means to test astrological validity. The Moon changes signs every 2-3 days and is valuable for short-term trading. Planetary stations and aspects identify longer-term market reversals. Approximately 4-5 times/year, markets will form important highs or lows, which are the most favorable times to buy and sell for position traders. This course provides research studies showing the correlation of astrological factors to short-term and longer-term financial markets. The focus will be on stock markets, precious metals (Gold and Silver), and Bitcoin, and how to integrate astrology with cycle studies to attain optimal market timing skills. Visit https://isar2022.org/schedule/ for further information and register for a great event! For a video description of this workshop via interview between Ray Merriman and Conference Coordinator Laura Nalbandian, click this link https://youtu.be/kBxYZ_VpckA
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.