REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 6.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in January through March. That left the world’s largest economy within 1% of its peak reached in late 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S.” – Josh Mitchell, “U.S. Economy Bounces Back Near Its Peak,” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2021.
Real GDP rose 6.4% in the period (January-March), as vaccines rolled out, state lockdowns eased, and Americans spent December stimulus payments. The gusher in government transfer payments has hampered the recovery by increasing the incentive not to work. Employers across the country say they can’t find workers due to the federal enhanced $300 weekly jobless benefits that won’t expire until September. Nearly half of unemployed workers can make as much on the couch as they can on the job. – Opinion Page, “The Post-Pandemic Boom: Biden Inherited a Very Strong Recovery, Not a House ‘On Fire,’ ” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2021.
It was a strange and chaotic week for world financial markets, filled with sudden sharp but short-lived reversals – about what one would expect given that Uranus was conjoined in Taurus by Mercury, Venus, and the Sun April 22-30. Uranus-highlighted periods are usually filled with surprises and abrupt changes.
Once again, world equity markets were flush with cases of intermarket divergences surrounding a strong geocosmic critical reversal time band. The current heavily populated time band of geocosmic signatures extends from April 9 through May 8.
In the U.S., both the S&P and NASDAQ indices made new all-time highs last week, on Thursday, April 29. But the DJIA did not. It’s all-time high of 34,256 on April 16 remains intact. Until all three indices make new all-time highs in the same week, a case of intermarket bearish divergence remains in effect. However, in spite of that divergence, the U.S. markets have not declined very much either. The DJIA, for example, continues to find support above 33,700, only 500 points off its all-time high.
In Europe, the Netherlands AEX index also made a new all-time high on April 29. But it too was unaccompanied by the other European indices. The all-time high in the DAX remains intact as of April 19. The same day registered yearly highs for the London FTSE and Zurich SMI indices. Thus, intermarket bearish divergences exist in Europe too until all four make new yearly highs in the same week.
The Far East only found the Australian ASX index matching its all-time high last week, as it reached 7358 on Thursday, April 29, the same price it recorded on April 19. China’s Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng of Hong Kong notched new monthly lows and remain well below their yearly highs. In India and Japan, the NIFTY and Nikkei indices still maintain February 16 as their all-time and multi-year highs, respectively. That is important because that was just one day before the first passage of the powerful Saturn/Uranus waning square.
Several other financial markets also exhibited notable price movements last week. Bitcoin dropped 27.5% from its all-time high of 64,900 on April 14 to last week’s low of 47,000 on April 26. Then, typical of Uranus, it began another rally and is up over 10,000 as of Friday. The Euro currency soared to 1.2161 on Thursday, April 29, its highest mark in 9 weeks. But on Friday, April 30, as the Sun conjoined Uranus, it suffered a sharp decline. Crude Oil rose to 65.47 on April 29, approaching its yearly high of 67.98 made on March 8. Metals were relatively quiet, but grains were spectacular, reflecting the breakout energy of Uranus in the agricultural sign of Taurus (and conjoined by Mercury and Venus). Soybeans skyrocketed to 1608, nearing its all-time high of 1794 made in September 2012. Corn popped to 746, its highest price since July 2013. Wheat also exploded, reaching 773, its highest level since February 2013. This activity was accurately described in the Forecast 2021 book, which will be reviewed again in our special webinar taking place on May 22 (see announcements below). We expect another full house for that event.
GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
When Lawrence Summers criticized the Biden’s administration’s new economic policies in recent weeks as being the least responsible in 40 years, you might have expected the warning to jolt Democrats. Instead, Mr. Summers was largely dismissed by his fellow Democrats. Progressives shouted him down on Twitter after he warned that the new administration’s $1.9 trillion economic rescue program could overstimulate the economy and spark inflation… Behind the drama, the party’s resistance to Mr. Summers’s call for moderation is a sign that a torch is passing in economic thought and economic policy. – Jon Hilsenrath, “Behind Biden’s Big Spending Plans, the Waning Sway of Economic Caution,” Dow Jones and Company, April 29, 2021.
The stock market’s record-breaking performance through April 2021 is an example of how planetary aspects correlate to mundane conditions in the world, but not necessarily or directly to equity prices.
The most powerful geocosmic signature in effect in 2021 is Saturn in a waning square aspect to Uranus. In classical astrology, the square – especially the waning square – is arguably the most difficult of all aspects to navigate smoothly. Uranus portends new and major changes in society, whereas Saturn’s dynamic is resistant to change. Saturn desires to stay with the tried and true, the traditional and known. It is the play between risk-taking versus the urge for safety in the “known.” To some, this means the future (Uranus) is being held hostage by history (Saturn), and it must be liberated at all costs. In this case, the costs are unprecedented and leading the world into a bold, exciting, but unknown future.
But this future is also represented by the “New Aira” of the Jupiter/Saturn synodic cycle in air signs for the next 140 years. That is, after spending most of the previous 200 years conjoining in earth signs, which is cautious, practical, and traditional, Jupiter and Saturn now begin a 140-year period where their conjunctions take place in air signs. Unlike earth, air signs place great value on the theoretical, intellectual, and abstract concepts that are original. They can be bold, but also may seem rather arrogant and willing to take risks in comparison to the traditionalists represented by the earth principle.
Will these new “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) concepts that are suddenly in vogue today, work? No one knows. But we are soon to find out as they also start to be administered aggressively under the waning square of Saturn and Uranus.
We see these two forces struggling mightily against one another today. A new world order is unfolding, and nowhere is it more apparent than in the field of politics and among the “New Keynesian economists,” who are eager and willing to test out ideas of vast with no past record of success. They possess little fear of failure or any “unintended consequences” made possible by unlimited government borrowing. Further, they believe that as long as the U.S. Dollar is the standard world currency and the Fed can print as much as it wants (because the U.S. will never default as long as its central bank can print and monetize debt), they can spend freely without negative consequences down the road. Which might be true – that is until inflation clearly returns. But who remembers or cares anymore what that was like 40 years ago? That “ancient history” will not be permitted to hold our future as hostage any longer.
Or will it? With Saturn (history) square Uranus (risky and bold), we are about to find out.
In the meantime, the Saturn/Uranus square clearly relates to this struggle between the reality of the past (earth and Saturn) and the new intellectual ideologies of a bright and bold future (air and Uranus). But so far, the square of these two planets has not resulted in a crash of world equity markets, which would be a classical interpretation of those planets. Instead, global stock markets continue rising to new all-time and multi-year highs as more and more “New Keynesian” economic policies and politics lead to more and more stimulus, spending, and debt. It is as if these “New Keynesians” believe that paying back these debts will not be a problem, for the Fed can just print more money. The U.S. can never default or go broke as long as the Fed can still print the U.S. Dollar, the international standard currency. But if not an issue per MMT, then why the insistence on higher taxes? Is the purpose of higher taxes related to something else? Something political? Something personal? Something pertaining to “ancient history?”
The problem is, as economist Larry Summers warns, “The laws of economic arithmetic still apply.” In other words, the spending will have to be paid for, and there is no free lunch, even with financially-engineered zero interest rates created by the one body that has the power to print the international standard fiat currency at will – for now.
Enjoy the ride while it lasts, and just remember that the laws of economic arithmetic not only still apply, but so do the rules of gravity.
NOTE 1: MMA’S DAILY AND WEEKLY SUBSCRIPTION REPORTS ARE HOT! Especially the daily reports! Especially in Bitcoin, currencies, and metals for the past several weeks! If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you will find MMA’s Weekly or Daily Market reports to be of great value. The weekly reports give an in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro/Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver, and Crude Oil, and Bitcoin. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as the Euro Currency, Japanese Yen, Bitcoin, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETFs). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders and shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the Daily report also includes the Weekly report. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Shop > Subscriptions. Or click here.
NOTE 2: THREE MORE WEEKS! MMA’S FINANCIAL MARKETS WORLD WEBINAR AND FORECASTS 2021 UPDATE WILL TAKE PLACE MAY 22, 2021, 12:00 PM MST: This broadcast will take place on Saturday, May 22, 2021, 3:00 PM EDT (that’s 12:00 PM PDST, 8 PM UK, 9 PM CEDT. 5 AM Tokyo, 6 AM Sydney). In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s Webinar on Financial Markets and Forecasts 2021 Update. This 2.5-hour webinar will give an intermediate-term update on several financial markets that were covered in the Forecast 2021 Book, including the U.S. stock market, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the Euro currency, and Bitcoin. This will be an especially timely presentation because 1) the 12-year Jupiter orbital cycle will be making its first entrance into Pisces on May 13, and 2) May 3-July 9 has been highlighted as one of the more probable times in 2021 for an intermediate-term (and possibly long-term) trend reversal in several financial markets, including world stock indices. Joining Ray to share their outlook will be Ulric Aspegrén (Euro, U.S. Dollar) and Gianni Di Poce (U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil). Ray will be covering equities, metals, and Bitcoin. There will be a Q&A with attendees during this webinar. The cost to attend is $55.00 and includes the slides of the presentation, plus access to the video recording of the event. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will receive the video recording following the live event. See details below, under EVENTS. Or, for more information, go to www.mmacycles.com, Shop> Webinars. Or go to www.mmacycles.com/product-category/webinars/ and SIGN UP NOW TO LOCK IN YOUR PLACE for this event!
NOTE 3: Every so often I get asked for a referral for an astrological consultation. There are many excellent professional astrologers in the world, and some-not-so-excellent ones too. I am going to recommend one today that has served my own family and close friends for many years (there are actually several, but I am only going to recommend one of them at this time). Her name is Erin Sullivan, and her contact info is email@example.com. She has an uncanny awareness for what is going on in the world related to the position of major transiting planets. And the most important tool of any professional astrologer, in my opinion, is mastery of transits and how they relate to the stages of life one is going through. There are very few who have this gift of understanding as Erin. She has been an astrological consultant for five decades, is a well-respected author of several books, and her fees are half of what mine are (a great value!). If you want to understand what you are going through in these challenging times, and what is coming up in regard to your career, finances, relationships, and physical or emotional health as indicated by cosmic cycles, contact Erin while she still does consultations.
MAY 22, 2021, 12:00 PM MST: MMA’S FINANCIAL MARKETS WORLD WEBINAR AND FORECASTS 2021 UPDATE. This 2.5-hour webinar will give an intermediate-term update on the U.S. stock market, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the Euro currency, and Bitcoin, and possibly other markets as well. Joining Ray to share their outlook will be Ulric Aspegrén (Euro, U.S. Dollar) and Gianni Di Poce (U.S. Treasuries, Crude Oil). Ray will be covering equities, metals, and Bitcoin. There will be a Q&A with attendees during this webinar. Is the 16.5-month cycle in stocks about to peak? Is the 31.33-month cycle low in Gold in or still ahead? Is the “boom” in Bitcoin over? What about the rallies in Crude Oil and the Euro? Are they just beginning or about to end? The cost to attend is $55.00 and includes the slides of the presentation, plus access to the video recording of the event. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will receive the video recording following the live event. Go to www.mmacycles.com/product-category/webinars/ and SIGN UP NOW TO LOCK IN YOUR PLACE for this event!
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.