REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Stocks slid off their best levels of the session on Friday after the U.S. and China agreed to a “phase one deal” in the trade war, but still managed to post strong gains. The deal, which will take three to five weeks to write, includes China agreeing to raise its agricultural purchases to between $40 billion and $50 billion from $8 billion to $16 billion, in addition to making reforms on intellectual property and financial services. The U.S. will not be raising tariffs from 25 percent to 30 percent on Oct. 15. A decision has not yet been made on the tariff increase scheduled for Dec. 15. China’s trade team is calling the agreement a “pause” in the trade war, and not a deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up as much as 517 points in the moments following the announcement before finishing higher by 319 points, or 1.2 percent.– Jonathan Garber, “US and China Agree to ‘Phase One Deal’ in Trade War, Stocks Rally,” https://www.foxbusiness.com, October 11, 2019.
Stocks soared on Friday, October 11, as investors got what they wanted and expected: a trade deal with China. Or did they? President Trump calls it a deal – the “first phase” of a deal. China calls it a “pause” in the ongoing trade war. There is quite a difference.
Once again, this optimistic view of what took place is occurring under the “irrational exuberance” principle of Jupiter square Neptune. Although the final passage of this aspect occurred on September 21, they are still within a 3-degree orb of squaring one another at this time. But they are brought together even more at the moment because transiting Jupiter makes an exact 135° sesquiquadrate aspect to Uranus on Monday, October 14, while Uranus and Neptune are also within only 1° of an exact 45° semi square to one another.
We discussed this unusual celestial pattern in the Forecast 2019 Book. Not only does this configuration continue the dynamics of Jupiter and Neptune (irrational exuberance related to hopes ands wishes that are not confirmed), but also those of Uranus (sudden, unexpected, and abrupt changes to that which was expected). There can be a disconnect (Uranus) between what one side thought was agreed to and what the other side claims was agreed to. The combination of all three usually leads to chaos and a breakdown of deals, as it has in the previous time this configuration was present, January through June. Maybe this time the deal takes hold, since it is the last time these planets form this relationship to one another for several years. Or, maybe it is “hope and wish” being exhibited by the investment community again.
Nevertheless, stock investors liked the announcement. Or, they did until the final 15 minutes of trading, just after “the deal,” was reported. The DJIA fell over 200 points from its high of the day at 27,014 to 26,798. With Uranus in the cosmic picture now, sudden reversals like that are more the norm. It will be interesting to see how markets respond early next week when the details of “the deal” are digested. With Neptune involved too, the details may be short on substance and large on … hopes and wishes.
In other markets, Gold fell hard again on Friday, down to $1478 early in the day as investors anticipated a trade deal to be announced. However, shortly after the announcement, Gold started a nice rally and ended up closing at 1493.50. The big loser was treasuries, for a trade deal means the Fed may not lower rates any further now that this uncertainty is being removed (or is it? China calls it a “pause,” not a “deal”). Strangely enough, the Dollar fell hard last week (after falling hard the week before). If interest rates are going to increase, one would expect the Dollar to rally. The Dollar fell as investors believed rates would trend lower over the past two weeks. But the Dollar continued to fall as progress was made on the trade war and rates increased. This “disconnect” between treasuries and the U.S. Dollar is another reflection of the presence of Uranus being highlighted in the cosmos. Past patterns do not guarantee that future patterns will repeat in the same way.
The long series of consecutive planetary signatures that began on August 24, and peaked on September 18, now comes to its end this Monday, October 14. But it doesn’t go out quietly, for between October 12 and 14, Venus will make an opposition to Uranus, Jupiter a sesquiquadrate to Uranus, and the full moon will T-square Pluto. After that, the cosmic focus begins to shift to other matters that have been building in intensity since late August (impeachment and China trade). What is next?
The next time band of important geocosmic signatures begins on October 27 and lasts through November 14. It begins with the transit of Mars in Libra squaring the Saturn/Pluto conjunction in Capricorn. Mars in Libra (October 4-November 19) is already a challenging dynamic, for it is in its detriment. Whereas Libra wants an agreement made in a diplomatic fashion, Mars tends to be aggressive and forceful and wants a decision now, not later. One can immediately see the potential for conflict over this “deal” or “pause” between China, which is a Libra country, and Donald Trump, who is a very Martian personality with Mars rising conjunct his Leo ascendant.
So, what happens when Mars in Libra (“let’s make a deal now”) forms a square to Saturn (delays and obstacles) and Pluto (winner takes all, loser loses badly) in Capricorn (take it or leave it and suffer the consequences)? We will probably know by November 7-14 when the next TMI (Trump Mars Indicator) arises and we see if President Trump’s “calm and stable genius” self steps up, or his inner child erupts, leading to another breakdown in this negotiating process, or some other process that is going on, like the impeachment investigation process (Pluto rules investigations too). Or something else, like Turkey or Iran or Venezuela, all potential “hot spots” reflecting the temperament of Mars.
In the midst of all this, Mercury also turns retrograde in Scorpio, October 31-November 19. In fact, Mercury will be in Scorpio from October 3 through the end of the year. Mercury in Scorpio is also symbolic of investigations and undercover work. The impeachment proceedings are not going to end this year, and the amount of information being uncovered (that was hidden) is likely to be voluminous.
President Donald Trump said Friday the Federal Reserve should still lower interest rates even though China and the U.S. agreed to the first part of a trade deal. “The Federal Reserve should cut rates regardless of how good this is,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “We have a great economy, but we have a Federal Reserve that’s not in step with the rest of the world.” The U.S. central bank has already cut rates twice this year in part because of weakness in the global economy, which has arisen due to the ongoing trade war. On Friday, however, the two sides announced strides to end the trade war. – Fred Imbert, “Trump Says the Fed Should Cut Rates Anyway Even Though US and China Have Agreed to Trade Deal.” https://www.cnbc.com, October 11, 2019.
As long-time readers know, this is the time of the year that I write the annual Forecast Book. The greater body of writing takes place in October and November, and involves considerable time researching long-term planetary cycles that will be in effect the next year, and their correlation to cycles in human activity. There are two very important synodic cycles occurring in 2020: The first is the 32-37 year conjunction of Saturn and Pluto. For the first time since 1518, this planetary cycle will conjoin in Capricorn. This was the time of the Protestant Reformation, which was a major effort led by Martin Luther to end the corruption in the Catholic Church’s practice of selling “indulgences” to absolve sin (pre-quid pro quo).
Also fascinating is the correlation between the phases of the current Saturn/Pluto cycle that began in November 1982 to interest rates in the U.S. In fact, the correlation also involves the prior Saturn/Pluto cycle and its phases going back to August 1947. For instance, near the conjunction in 1947, near-term rates were also near zero. But every quarter cycle of Saturn and Pluto after that correlated with a cycle high in rates, and each time it was higher than the last. That is, until rates topped out in 1982. And then the correlation reversed. Every quarter cycle of Saturn/Pluto since the high in 1982 has marked a low in interest rates, with each phase coinciding with lower rates than the prior one. And here we are again, about to end the Saturn/Pluto cycle in January 2020. Are we on the verge of another 32-37 year Saturn/Pluto cycle where the phases will mirror the pattern of 1947-1982? And what does this imply about the Treasury market in 2020 and beyond, and what one’s investment planning ought to consider? After all, Saturn in Capricorn – and the entire Capricorn Stellium of 2020 – has one very important inherent virtue to those who understand cosmic dynamics: the ability to plan effectively. Capricorn and Saturn both rule the process of planning, and if done well (analysis, logic, goal-setting), it leads to success and accomplishment. If not, the result is more likely to be something of a loss.
The other major synodic cycle occurring in 2020 is the 20-year Jupiter/Saturn conjunction on December 21, 2020 (right on the winter solstice). It will take place in 0° Aquarius. This is also quite rare because it is the first time it will occur in Aquarius since 1405. In fact, it starts a series of consecutive conjunctions in air signs for the first time since 1228. That’s where my research will be headed during the next two weeks, and I am certain there will be notable political and economic cycles coinciding with the 20-year Jupiter/Saturn conjunction, because they always unfold close to a U.S. Presidential election. I will share the study of that possible correlation in the Forecast 2020 Book.
NOTE 1: The MMA Monthly Cycles Report will be issued this week to all active subscribers of that report. This report will provides our latest analysis and outlook for U.S. stock indices (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold and Silver, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil and Soybeans. Each issue also contains MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Reports and wish a copy of this month’s outlook for financial markets, consider taking out a 1-month trial subscription NOW. With stocks approaching their all-time highs again, and Gold recently making a new 6-year high, and Jupiter soon to leave Sagittarius as the 2020 “Capricorn Stellium” begins is less than 2 months, this is an important juncture for many financial markets
NOTE 2: LESS THAN 3 WEEKS LEFT!!! The pre-order sale for Forecast 2020 is now underway! This once-a-year sale includes discounts on both the annual Forecast Book and MMA Subscription Reports and will be in effect through October 31st. You may pre-order Forecast 2020 now at the discounted rate of $45. After our sale ends, the price will increase to $55 on November 1st. Order both an eBook and print book (Forecast 2020 Bundle) for only $65, a savings of $45 off the standard rates. Save 10% off any subscription ($275+) with purchase of Forecast 2020. Use code SALE2020 at checkout to receive the subscription discount.
MMA’s 2019 Scorecard (from Forecast 2019 Book) as of September 6, 2019, is now available for viewing! See how we did HERE on our Website.
NOTE 3: MMA’s Daily and Weekly subscription reports are the best way to keep up with rapidly changing markets! If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you will be interested in MMA’s Weekly or Daily Market reports. The Weekly reports give an in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro/Yen cash, Swiss Franc, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver, and Bitcoin. The Daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as the Euro Currency, Japanese Yen, Bitcoin, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF’s). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders and shorter-term aggressive traders. Save $360 on an annual subscription to the MMA Daily Report (which also includes the full weekly subscription reports) by ordering before October 31!
February 8, 2020: MMA’S FORECAST 2019 LIVE WEBINAR will take place on Saturday, February 8, 2020. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s annual worldwide Forecast 2020 Webinar. This broadcast will address subjects from next year’s Forecast 2020 Book, with updates on financial markets since the book was written in November 2019. Outlooks for the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, crude oil, and currencies will be discussed. Cost is $55.00, and includes the slides of the presentation, plus a downloadable MP4 recording of the event. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will receive the MP4 recording, following the live event.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.