REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The U.S. Treasury on Friday said that the federal deficit for fiscal 2019 was $984 billion, a 26% increase
from 2018 but still short of the $1 trillion mark previously forecast by the administration. The gap between
revenues and spending was the widest it’s been in seven years as expenditures on defense, Medicare and
interest payments on the national debt ballooned the shortfall… Annual deficits have nearly doubled under
President Donald Trump’s tenure notwithstanding an unemployment rate at multidecade lows and better
earnings figures. Deficits usually shrink during times of economic growth as higher incomes and Wall
Street profits buoy Treasury coffers, while automatic spending on items like food stamps decline – Thomas
Franck, “Federal Deficit Increase 26% to $984 Billion for Fiscal 2019, Highest in 7 Years,” https://www.cnbc.com, October 25, 2019.
It’s fascinating to see synchronicity in financial markets based on seasons, dates, and the return of specific
geocosmic signatures. Case in point: in early October 2018, just one year ago, many of the world’s stock
indices were making new all-time highs, from which a severe decline started that didn’t end until December
26. During that plunge, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, dropped over 19% and formed its
4-year cycle trough. One year later, on October 3-4, many global equity markets made a low. It wasn’t a
long-term low, but one that is labeled a 5-7 week major cycle trough. Since that time, most of the world’s
indices have started an impressive rally, with several rallying to their highest level of 2018.
What was the difference between October 2-5, 2018 (high) and October 3-4, 2019 (low)? In 2018, Venus
turned retrograde on October 5, which is historically one of the most consistent and powerful geocosmic
signatures to the completion of primary or greater cycles in stocks. That was a 4-year cycle crest. In 2019,
Venus formed a waning square to Saturn and Pluto and Pluto turned direct. Although the Venus square
Saturn/Pluto has a reliable correlation to primary cycles too, there was no primary cycle low time band in
effect then. It was in a time band that was 5-7 weeks after the primary cycle had already formed on August
6 (S&P) or August 15 (DJIA), when a major cycle trough was due. The point is that geocosmic signatures
work extremely well in timing market reversals. However, their correlation to the amplitude of a market
reversal depends not only on the type of geocosmic signature is in effect, but also on the point in a cycle in
which the geocosmic signature(s) occurs. A Level One (strongest correlation) geocosmic signature that
occurs in time band that overlaps the time band for an 18-week primary cycle will have a different reaction
– a different intensity for a reversal – than one that occurs in a time band in which a 6-week major cycle is
Let’s return to the current market conditions now. It was a positive week for most global equity markets.
Many, like in the U.S. and Europe, are nearing their all-time highs. In the case of the Zurich SMI and
Brazil’s Bovespa indices, all-time highs were achieved on Friday. Others will follow shortly, or if not, then
world stocks indices will exhibit what is known as a case of intermarket bearish divergence, which happens
when some indices make new cycle highs (or all-time highs) but others do not, and then the following
week(s), all indices start to fall hard. So far, there is no sign that indices are falling – but that can change
quickly, especially since we have some rather “sudden and abrupt” geocosmic-type signatures coming up
In other markets, Gold and Silver enjoyed nice rallies. On Friday, October 25, Gold rose to a 2-week high
of 1520.50, while Silver soared to a new monthly high of 18.35. But the most interesting market was
Bitcoin. It fell to a new 5-month low of 7205 on Thursday, but then suddenly reversed and rallied to 8800
late Friday on news that China had officially endorsed blockchain development. Here comes the next stage
of Uranus in Taurus. That’s a good sign for Bitcoin!
“President Trump has steely resolve. It’s either a big deal or no deal. That’s been his posture from day
one,” (Trump Trade Advisor Peter) Navarro said. – Kayla Tausche, “Trump Advisor Peter Navarro
Fighting ‘Phase One’ of China Trade Deal,” https://www.cnbc.com, October 25, 2019.
The U.S. and China have made progress in trade discussions and have come close to finalizing parts of a
phase one deal, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said Friday. The agency issued a statement
outlining the status of discussions following a conversation that U.S. Trade Representative Robert
Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He. “They made
headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement,” The
news helped to send major U.S. stock indexes to their Friday highs.– Jacob Pramuk, “US and China Are
Close to Finalizing Some Sections of a Trade Deal,” https://www.cnbc.com, October 25, 2019.
It’s deja vu all over again
As the U.S. and China prepare to sign a new, but limited, trade agreement, the White House paraded VicePresident Mike Pence out to give a special press conference whose purpose was to …. bash China. This is a pattern that has been repeated close to every trade deal that has come close to being consummated, only to push the Chinese away from going forward, and then complaining that the Chinese reneged on the deal again. I am not sure what drives this Administration to keep repeating the same behavior over and over again and expecting a different result – unless they don’t want a different result, because it makes for a good campaign issue to rally the Administration’s base of supporters. In the meantime, economic data keeps pointing to a slowdown in world economic growth, directly attributed to the trade war initiated by the U.S. Yes, we know it has not been a level playing field for several years due to the enabling behaviors and policies of previous administrations, as well as U.S. companies that have been more than willing to give away intellectual property secrets order to get the Chinese business. And we know that Mr. Trump is “the chosen one,” in his own words, to take the steps necessary to create a level playing field. But if a trade deal is truly desired, you don’t get the carrot – the agreement – by trashing the other side before the meeting. It hasn’t worked so far, and the Chinese have made it very clear that they won’t sign an agreement unless mutual respect shown.
So here we are, on the verge of another “19th nervous breakdown.” Starting this weekend, Mars will form
a hard square aspect to Saturn and Pluto, on October 27 and November 5 respectively. Also, the Sun will
form an opposition to Uranus on Monday, October 28, followed by Mercury turning retrograde on October
31 (and lasting through November 20). These are not the types of geocosmic signatures that lead to an
agreement based on good will diplomacy. They are the types of planetary signatures whose themes imply
trying to pressure others, trying to force an issue, and then getting very agitated when you don’t get what
you want. To continue the Rolling Stones’ oldies but goodies analogy, “You can’t always get what you
want, but if you try somehow, you get what you need.”
With Mars in Libra (the desire for an agreement) square Saturn and Pluto (the frustration of not getting
what you want), this behavior may well lead to a pullback in both the trade talks as well as market prices. I
would expect the next two weeks to exhibit one or two of those nasty sell-off days in stock prices that
frequently happen when trade optimism morphs into disappointment and more disillusionment. I thought
Jupiter square Neptune was over, but apparently its influence lingers on as long as Jupiter remains in the
optimistic ”trading” sign of Sagittarius.
With the Sun in opposition to Uranus next week, and Mercury turning retrograde as well, be prepared for
some very strange mood swings. Be prepared for the possibility that the pendulum of optimism swings 180
degrees around on this trade deal, and fingers will be pointing at each other for blame (it might apply to the
U.S.-Turkey relationship too). Of course, it doesn’t have to be that way. It is always possible that acts of
good will and compromise can overcome such resistance implied by these… signs of resistance, where one
side digs in and tries to “act like a tough guy” (wasn’t a world leader just advised not to do exactly that?).
It’s just that we’ve seen this pattern – this “projection” – before. And the cosmic picture indicates we are
about to see a sequel. Hopefully this one has a different ending. Maybe we will all be surprised with the
Sun in opposition to Uranus, which is usually more akin to an earthquake, an electrical blackout, or some
act of insanity, yet it also rules surprises. But as the plot and characters are the same as before, expecting a
different outcome would be… crazy.
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Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.