REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The U.S. budget deficit has topped $1 trillion for the first time in seven years, the Treasury Department said Thursday. The federal government’s budget deficit rose by $200 billion in August to $1.067 trillion. It’s up 19 percent, or $169 billion, from the October to August period of last year. The national debt now stands at $22.5 trillion, up 13 percent since Trump took office in January 2017.– Jonathan Garber, “U.S. Budget Deficit Tops $1 Trillion,” https://www..foxbusiness.com, September 12, 2019.
The ECB announced a new quantitative easing program Thursday which will see 20 billion euros ($21.9 billion) per month of net asset purchases for as long as the central bank deems necessary. It also cut the rate on its main deposit facility by 10 basis points to -0.5%, a new record low, and introduced tiering measures to mitigate damage to banks’ balance sheets. – Elliot Smith, “European Stocks Close Higher After Aggressive ECB Stimulus,” https://www.cnbc.com, September 12, 2019.
World equity markets surged again last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 27,306 on Thursday, September 12, less than 100 points off its all-time high of 27,398 recorded on July 16. The cause? The perception of a continuing thaw in the trade dispute between the U.S. and China, plus the aggressive actions by central banks to lower interest rates. Last week, the European Central Bank led the way, embarking upon another major stimulus effort, dropping their main deposit rate to a negative -.5% and starting another major quantitative easing policy. And yet, in spite of all this interest rate easing around the world, the U.S. treasury markets fell hard. Something is not right when interest rates go down, and treasury values also go down. They are supposed to be inversely related to one another.
What is going on behind the scenes? We don’t really know, because we are in the throes of the last of three passages of the Jupiter/Neptune waning square (taking place next week on September 21), combined with the Sun, Mercury, Venus, and Mars all forming a T-square to Jupiter/Neptune. It is like being in a fog. As stated many times in this column lately, you cannot believe what you will see, hear or read. All of these actions and activities have the effect of creating a sense of euphoria and optimism, with many analysts now proclaiming this rally will last through the end of this year. Yet, with Jupiter square Neptune, the symbology is one of false hopes and wishes, irrational exuberance, followed by disillusionment and disappointment, when those hopes and wishes fail to materialize. Or, in the event they do materialize, they may turn out to be very different from the way they were described to the public.
Once again, the study of Financial Astrology suggests you cannot believe what you read, hear, or see. It is fine to have a positive attitude, but it may become a serious problem when the message of optimism is actually more manipulative (to drive the markets up, perhaps) than real or accurate. Jupiter square Neptune can be that kind of message, and it is why we referred to 2019 as “The Year of the Setup” in our Forecast 2019 Book. After December 2, 2019, Jupiter will join Saturn and Pluto in Capricorn, creating what is known as the “Capricorn Stellium.” History shows a correlation with markets rising to a long-term cycle crest when Jupiter is in Sagittarius (November 2018-December 2019), and then falling to along term cycle low when it transits Capricorn through Pisces (2020-2022). The correlation is not 100%, but the frequency of this occurring is well above the norm, and we pay attention to probabilities like this.
As stocks continued to soar last week, other markets fell, like Treasuries, precious metals, and Crude Oil. Even Bitcoin fell below $10,000 in the past two weeks before starting to recover by the end of last week. But the bigger story was with the stock market, especially in the U.S. where the indices are nearing their all-time highs. Or was it? The declines in treasuries and metals are quickly becoming big stories too.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
The average rate on the 30-year fixed is now 20 basis points higher than it was on Monday and 36 basis points higher than its last low on Sept. 4, according to Mortgage News Daily. That is the biggest short-term jump since the week following the election of President Donald Trump. – Diana Olick, “This Was the Worst Week for Mortgage Rates in 3 Years – And It May Be Just the Beginning,” https://www.cnbc.com, September 13, 2019.
Last week’s column described a time of several contradictory geocosmic signatures now in effect through September 21. As stated last week, “With both the Sun and Mars forming a square to Jupiter this week, and Jupiter symbolizing exaggeration, we could see very strong price moves either way. If “irrational exuberance” dominates, the direction will continue to be up. But if the Saturn stationary direct of September 18 starts to dominate, the mood could quickly shift to hysteria and panic, which is the other side of Jupiter and Neptune when reality strikes, and hopes and wishes turn to disillusionment and disappointment.” So far, it is irrational exuberance that is prevailing in equities as we barrel ahead towards September 18-21, when Saturn turns stationary direct (forming a T-square to the U.S. Sun/Saturn natal square) and the third and final passage of the Jupiter/Neptune square occurs. But the mood may be more akin to hysteria and panic that may be starting to unfold in treasuries and metals, which is the other side of Jupiter and Neptune
There are other interesting geocosmic signatures occurring this week. On Saturday, September 14, both Mercury and Venus will enter Libra, the sign that Venus rules. Usually that is bullish for stocks and bearish for metals. This will last until October 3 in the case of Mercury and October 8 for Venus. Stocks don’t usually rally for the entire period, nor do metals fall for the entire period. They make important reversals from their highs and lows respectively within that period.
Psychologically, Mercury and Venus in Libra would normally correlate with a period of agreements, so there is hope that the U.S. and China will forge a trade agreement. But Jupiter in Sagittarius, square Neptune in Pisces, warns about getting too optimistic about that. More than likely there will be talk, but no agreement, or perhaps an agreement that is not what investors had expected. By September 25-30, Venus makes a square to both Saturn and Pluto in Capricorn. That has the look of an agreement falling apart.
Overlapping this period, we have our new “TMI” market indicator now in force. In modern slang, this stands for “Too Much Information.” But here we give it a slightly different meaning: the “Trump Mars Indicator.” This indicator is in effect when transiting Mars makes a hard aspect to the chart of President Trump: times when we observe that he tends to become easily agitated and takes to launching twitter missiles against the Fed, China, or anyone else who disturbs him during those moments. This often causes markets to suffer a crushing selloff. This TMI indicator is now in effect September 12-22, as the transit of Mars in Virgo makes a T-square to President Trump’s natal Sun/Uranus in Gemini, which is in opposition to his natal Moon in Sagittarius (he was born under a lunar eclipse). Let’s see if it happens again in the next ten days.
Technically and chart-wise, everything looks great for equities now. But geocosmics are flashing a stern warning that an explosion or flood may suddenly strike. And the U.S. treasury market – a market much larger than stocks ¬– is a bit insane, which could end up being even more of a problem if certain funds or governments are involved in a large and persistent selling operations.
NOTE 1: The MMA Monthly Cycles Report will be issued this week to all active subscribers of that report. This report will update our analysis and outlook for U.S. stock indices (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold and Silver, but also Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil and Soybeans. Each issue also contains MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Reports and wish a copy of this month’s outlook for financial markets, consider taking out a subscription NOW.
NOTE 2: Ray Merriman will conduct a webinar this Sunday, September 15, at 3 PM, EDT for the ISAR Star Club. The title is “How Astrology Got it Right With the 2016 USA Presidential Election (but the Astrologers Missed It).” This 90-minute webinar will be free to all members of ISAR – the International Society for Astrological Research. Or, only $9.99 if not a member. It’s a great deal! To join ISAR and/or see this live webinar, go to https://isarastrology.org, and click UPCOMING STAR CLUB WEBINARS. This webinar will discuss Forecasting versus Prediction; issues involved with determining correct charts to use, popular votes versus electoral college votes, the role of personal bias; charts relating to the voting public; charts of individual candidates – natal, progressed, transits; historical studies of astrological and other factors corresponding to U.S. presidential elections. Sign up now and join us for an interesting discussion at a very affordable fee, hosted by the world’s leading international professional astrology organization!
NOTE 3: The pre-order sale for Forecast 2020 is now underway! This once-a-year sale includes discounts on both the annual Forecast Book and MMA Subscription Reports and will be in effect through October 31st. You may pre-order Forecast 2020 now at the discounted rate of $45. After our sale ends, the price will increase to $55 on November 1st. Order both an eBook and print book (Forecast 2020 Bundle) for only $65, a savings of $45 off the standard rates. Save 10% off any subscription ($275+) with purchase of Forecast 2020. Use code SALE2020 at checkout to receive the subscription discount.
MMA’s 2019 Scorecard (from Forecast 2019 Book) as of September 6, 2019, is now available for viewing! See how we did HERE on our Website.
NOTE 4: MMA’s Daily and Weekly subscription reports are the best way to keep up with rapidly changing markets! If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you will be interested in MMA’s Weekly or Daily Market reports. The Weekly reports give an in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro/Yen cash, Swiss Franc, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver, and Bitcoin. The Daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as the Euro Currency, Japanese Yen, Bitcoin, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF’s). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders and shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the Daily report also includes the Weekly report. Consider taking out a subscription now to be included in our annual subscriber-only sale that is currently underway. For example, save $360 on an annual subscription to the MMA Daily Report (which also includes the full weekly subscription reports) by ordering before October 31! All MMA subscription reports – including the Crude Oil and Indian Markets (NIFTY) reports by Nitin Bhandari, as well as the ICR Monthly Commodities and Financials reports, are included as part of this special annual sale by MMA through October 31, 2019.
September 15, 2019: Ray Merriman presents “How Astrology Got it Right With the 2016 USA Presidential Election (but the Astrologers Missed It)” starting at 3 PM EDT. This 90-minute webinar will be free to all members of ISAR – the International Society for Astrological Research. Or $9.99 if not a member. It’s a great deal! To join ISAR and/or see this live webinar, go to https://isarastrology.org, and click UPCOMING STAR CLUB WEBINARS. This webinar will go over some relevant modern-day charts that depicted Hillary Clinton’s advantage with the popular vote, but Donald’s Trump’s ultimate victory with the Electoral College vote. And what do these studies say about the 2020 election?
February 8, 2020: MMA’S FORECAST 2019 LIVE WEBINAR will take place on Saturday, February 8, 2020. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into Raymond Merriman’s annual worldwide Forecast 2020 Webinar. This broadcast will address subjects from next year’s Forecast 2020 Book, with updates on financial markets since the book was written in November 2019. Outlooks for the U.S. stock market, Gold and Silver, crude oil, and currencies will be discussed. Cost is $55.00, and includes the slides of the presentation, plus a downloadable MP4 recording of the event. If unable to attend live, you can still sign up, as everyone who orders the Webinar will receive the MP4 recording, following the live event.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.