U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday.
REVIEW AND PREVIEW:
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is pushing for an investigation into the Federal Reserve’s independence, after a former agency president suggested policymakers should punish President Trump for the U.S.-China trade war by allowing the economy to tank, hurting his 2020 re-election chances. A member of the Senate Banking Committee, Tillis said he planned to ask the chairman, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, to hold a hearing regarding Fed independence… Trump’s frequent criticisms have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed — prompting four former chairs to stress, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, the need for the central bank to remain free of short-term political pressures. “It is critical to preserve the Federal Reserve’s ability to make decisions based on the best interests of the nation, not the interests of a small group of politicians,” wrote Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, who have all, at one point, headed the Fed, appointed and reappointed by six different presidents, both Republican and Democratic. – Megan Henney, “GOP Senator Calls for Probe into Fed’s Independence,” https://www.foxbusiness.com, August 30, 2019.
The stock market’s collapse of one week ago, following the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, was reversed as calmer heads began to prevail, and talks of new negotiations soon to get underway were announced. This is a script we have seen before, and it perfectly times with the movement of the heavens, most notably the approach of the third and final waning square this year between Jupiter and Neptune, which will take place on September 21. Jupiter and Neptune in hard aspects, especially with both in their ruling signs of Sagittarius and Pisces respectively, is like a hopeless romantic. They will believe anything positive, because they want to believe everything will be OK, even though they have no evidence or reason to believe that anything has really changed at all.
But never mind the past and it’s pattern of repetition correlating with a repetition of a pattern in the cosmos. Investors want to hear positive news! They want a reason to keep bidding stocks higher, even if it means believing in the race between nations to have the lowest interest rates (even negative interest rates) and their currencies values lower than anyone else. Those who study Financial Astrology are no doubt wondering what happens after this last passage takes place between Jupiter and Neptune in waning square on September 21? Or, what happens when Jupiter ends it’s year-long trek through Sagittarius, a historical marker for the completion of long cycles crests in world stock indices, that ends December 2?
Last week saw world equity markets erase all their previous week’s losses, as most soared to their highest level since August 2. It was a good week for stocks.
It wasn’t quite such a good week for commodities and currencies, although both Gold and Silver made new yearly highs to start the week, and Silver continued rising throughout most of the week. In fact, on Monday morning, Gold soared to 1565, it’s highest level in 6 years. By Friday, it was making weekly lows around 1525. Silver continued rallying to a 23-month high on Thursday, August 29, at 18.61. By Friday, it was back to testing the 18.00 mark. This resistance is related to the U.S. Dollar, which soared to 99.02 on Friday, it’s highest mark since May 2017. A rising Dollar spells headwinds for precious metals and other currencies against the Dollar, like the Euro, which fell below 1.1000 for the first time since May 2017. Yet each of these developments are in line with long-term cycle patterns, which point to another reset of financial markets in the near future, and maybe even as early as September.
Another market that did not fare well last week was Bitcoin, which is testing the $9000 mark again for the third time since mid-July, following its breathtaking ascent from 3300 earlier this year to it’s high of 13,895 on June 26. Bitcoin doesn’t seem to do well heading into strong Saturn signatures, so maybe the station of Saturn on September 18 will coincide with this digital currency finding a floor. It would not be surprising to see several falling markets find a floor then, whereas rising market may bump their heads into resistance.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
September is shaping up to be a very important month for world stock indices as indicated by geocosmic correlations. That is, there are five geocosmic signatures that take place between September 2 and 30 that have a 40% or greater correlation to 50-week cycles. That is huge number, and includes the following, with their percentages of correlation in parentheses, as taken from the studies published in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlation to Trading Cycles:
September 2, Sun conjunct Mars (43%)
September 10, Sun opposition Neptune (43%)
September 18, Saturn direct (43%)
September 21, Jupiter square Neptune (40%)
September 30, Venus square Pluto (55%)
In comparison, the months of August and October only contain one signature each that has a 40% or greater correspondence to 50-week cycle crests or troughs. The point midway between the September signatures is September 16, so we will focus on that time, +/- 1 week, as the peak of this cosmic confluence.
Each of these signatures is considered a “hard aspect” in the study of astrology, which suggests the collective mood of the world is likely to be under some kind of stress. Yet, in the past, we have seen Jupiter/Neptune aspects coinciding with a sense of “irrational exuberance”, as stock prices have soared to new all-time highs. The September 21 instance will be the third time this aspect has happened this year. In the two prior cases (January 13 and June 16, 2019), the stock market ended a severe decline about two weeks earlier, and by the aspect was exact, stock prices were rallying quite strongly. That appears to be the case again, as a severe decline ended on August 26, a little more than three weeks before this last passage about to take place.
However, the presence of Saturn turning direct on September 18, just three days before the last Jupiter/Neptune square passage, may augur a different result. We know from past observances that the unbounded euphoria represented by Jupiter (exaggeration) and Neptune (hopes and wishes) can highlight periods when the world is hopeful of some good news about to be announced (like a trade deal), only to be disappointed when it fails to materialize. This time may be more of the same, only more in line of the disappointment reaction, because Saturn is the psychological dynamic pertaining to disappointment and loss. Yes, in its most positive expression, Saturn can represent a major accomplishment if all parties stock to the goal and abide by the rules of fair play and conduct, but “accomplishment” and “sticking to the rules” is not a natural behavior associated with Jupiter and Neptune in square to one another. As stated many times before in this column, under Jupiter/Neptune contacts you cannot believe what you read, see, or hear. It has more to do with rumors and false hopes. It has happened so often that the world has been given positive news of an imminent resolution to the trade war, for instance, that it is somewhat baffling that the investment community continues to bid up equity prices whenever it is announced that trade talks will resume. Maybe this time will be different, which itself is a common belief under Jupiter and Neptune.
The tempo of the discussions may vacillate wildly between on again and off again, given that the Sun, Venus, and Mars will make a T-square to the Jupiter/Neptune square, September 2-14, while at the same they make a trine to the Saturn/Pluto conjunction of September 6-19. The latter is very constructive and capable of coinciding with a long-term agreement. But the former is not, which is why September’s stock markets may vacillator as much as the news reports and press releases, between misleading rumors versus accurate news and facts. It becomes a challenge to figure out which is which in September, and it doesn’t apply only to the U.S.-China trade war. It also applies to the Brexit exit.
As long as talks are planned, and progress is announced, stocks will rise this month. But this may again be a case of Jupiter and Neptune’s narrative of false hopes and “irrational exuberance”. Just as soon as these talks break down – if they break down again, as I suspect they will – stocks will fall, and maybe very hard. And then the Jupiter-in-Sagittarius crest cycle could be over as Jupiter heads towards Capricorn, Aquarius and Pisces, 2020-2022, a time band that history has shown to correlate with long-term cycle lows. Or, in the optimistic view, a time when equities (and maybe real estate too) will offer outstanding values for those with courage – and cash – to enter the playing field.
For this week, the cosmos starts out with the Sun conjunct Mars in Virgo. This is the aspect mentioned previously in which declines of 8% or more in equities end and rallies begin. It appears the decline ended early last week, August 26. But the war isn’t over. And workers (Virgo) of the world may be ready to go on strike.
It is also the start of the college football season in America, and with Sun/Mars being a signature of competition, it could be a very exciting season with many records broken, but hopefully not many bones. It can be an auspicious time to start new projects, or new protests. Mars in Virgo is a hard combination to please, given that it has a drive for perfection. It’s great for those who have analytical or athletic skills. Enjoy your week, but be careful of acting too hastily, before first thinking things out carefully. Being too impatient or impulsive can lead to mistakes or even accidents. Being patient, thoughtful, and passionate about what you are doing can lead to success now.
NOTE 1: The New ICR (International Cycles Reports) from MMA will be issued THIS WEEK, September 3-4. The ICR Financials includes analysis on ASX (Australian Stock Index), RUT (Russell 2000), SSE (Chinese Shanghai Stock Composite), HSI (Hang Seng Index), AUD (Australian Dollar), DXY (US Dollar), and GBP (British Pound). The new ICR Commodities Report includes analysis on LC (Live Cattle), MJ (Cannabis), XAU (Gold and Silver), KT (Coffee), KA (Sugar), C (Corn), and W (Wheat). These reports are written by MMA Analyst and editor Mark Shyterman (metals, stock indices, and soft commodities), MMA Analyst Raymond Merriman (China markets), MMA Analyst Ulric Aspegren (Currencies), Isabella Suleymanov (Grains), and Massimo Moras (Live Cattle and Hang Seng). Consider taking out a subscription now to be included in our annual subscriber-only sale that is now underway.
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NOTE 2: The MMA Monthly Cycles Report was issued last week to all active subscribers of that report. This report contains not only our outlook for U.S. stock indices (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold and Silver, but also Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil and Soybeans. Each issue also contains MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks for DJIA, Gold, and Silver. If you are not a subscriber to the monthly MMA Cycles Reports and wish a copy of this month’s outlook for financial markets, consider taking out a subscription NOW.
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Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence potentially affect financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.