Please note there will be no weekly column next week ahead of our July 16 Annual Webinar on Financial Markets.
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REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Employers added 209,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. Employers ramped up wages as they competed for a limited pool of workers. The gains, while strong, marked a slowdown from earlier in the year – Sarah Chaney Cambon, “Jobs Report Shows Hot Hiring Cooled in June; Wages Rose,” Wall Street Journal Online, July 7, 2023.
While Japan is on the “down” side of the roller coaster, the euro and British pound are on the up. The euro now trades at $1.09 per dollar, roughly a year after sinking to parity for the first time in two decades. It has appreciated nearly 14% since falling below 96 U.S. cents in September. An explanation for the euro’s strength is hard to discern. – “The Global Currency Roller Coaster: The Yen is the Warning That All Is Not Well for Monetary Policy,” The Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2023.
It was a shortened holiday trading week. However, that didn’t stop financial markets from sharp and significant price action in the first week of trading following Neptune turning retrograde, a Full Moon, and the first of three passages involving Venus square Uranus between now and the end of September. Sharp reversals of recent trends suddenly erupted in several markets.
After ending the quarter on a very strong bullish note the previous week, with a “gap up” and bullish island reversal” signal on Friday, June 30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (and other U.S. indices) suddenly reversed course. After the holiday, the DJIA “gapped down” and formed a new “bearish island reversal” on Thursday, July 6. This bearish turn was captured nicely in a timely Special Report sent out to subscribers on Tuesday, July 4, stating, “If I were only utilizing MMA’s market timing tools (i.e., cycles studies and geocosmic factors), I would be looking for a steep decline beginning at any time. Instead of being a high, as favored in the strategies section of the weekly subscription report, we cannot dismiss the very strong possibility that the primary cycle high could be forming right now. A close below 34,122 will negate the bullish island reversal setup. That would be bearish and suggest a steep decline into….”
For those unfamiliar with these strong charting signals and terms and how to integrate them with our market timing tools for optimal trading opportunities, let me suggest The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 5: Technical Analysis and Price Objectives.
Now, of course, the challenge is to determine whether this is the beginning of a decline to a primary cycle low or an even longer-term cycle that could last several months. This will be one of the key points of focus in next weekend’s annual Mid-Year Webinar on Financial Markets (see Announcements at the end of this column).
European indices showed even more stress than the U.S. markets. The declines in the London FTSE and Zurich SMI indices were especially sharp, with both falling to their lowest level in three months, with most of the decline taking place late last week.
In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the story was mixed. The Indian NIFTY soared to a new all-time high on Friday. The Japanese Nikkei index made a double top to its 33-year high on Monday, July 3, before plummeting about 1500 points by Friday’s low. The Australian ASX also took a hit on Friday, along with the Hang Seng of Hong Kong. But China’s Shanghai Index was already in the midst of a sharp decline that escalated after a brief rally into July 4 before returning southward and challenging its lows of 2023.
In other markets, Bitcoin made another yearly high on Thursday, July 6, at $31,500, but then suddenly reversed and lost nearly $2000 by the low of Friday. Crude Oil had a good week, rising to the 74.00 area after its recent low of 67.50 the prior week, June 27, just before Neptune turned retrograde. Neptune is a co-ruler of Crude Oil in our work. Gold fell to 1900 right on our three-star critical reversal date of June 29, then re-tested it at 1908 on Thursday, July 6, before running up to over 1940 on Friday, July 7. Silver likewise had a decent week as it tested 23.50 on July 5, following its cycle low of 22.14 on the June 21 summer solstice.
The bigger story was in the currency markets, where the Dollar/Yen soared to 145 on June 30, testing its yearly high, and then fell the rest of the last week. Yet the Euro remains near its highest levels in two months. It’s a very interesting and bizarre dichotomy in the currency markets, just the way Uranus in Taurus likes it, and especially following the week of Venus square Uranus. Venus and Taurus have an affinity for currency market activity. If it’s not money, then Venus (and Taurus, its ruling sign) seeks correspondence with love. They often go together. No money (security), no love.
Ryan argued on CNBC that he (Trump) and Biden “have a symbiotic relationship with each other. They make the best case for each other’s candidacies, and it’s a total disaster for our country,” he said.– Kevin Breuninger, ”Trump Is The Only Republican Who Will Lose to Biden in 2024, Paul Ryan Says,” www.cnbc.com, July 4, 2023.
The first primaries are just more than six months away, the first GOP debate is next month, and yet the only thing to be sure of is that clear and consistent majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents don’t want the choice they’re likely to get, a race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. If either party were daring and serious about history, it would shake off its front-runner and increase its chances of winning in 2024. – Peggy Noonan, “May Trump Soon Reach His Waterloo,” Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2023.
“A gaffe is when a politician tells the truth,” Michael Kinsey, as quoted by Steven E. Koonin, “The White House Tells the Truth About Climate Change: Global Temperature Change Barely Affects Economic Growth,” Wall Street Journal, July 6, 2023.
The employment data of Friday, July 7, was a little less impressive than forecasted. But maybe even less impressive when you consider that so many people need to work two or more jobs now, or even come out of retirement, to make ends meet as a consequence of the 2022 inflation rise. Yes, inflation is coming down from its heights of 2022, but the cost of living is still far above where it was going into 2022. If an item costs $50, soars to $100, and then comes back to $75, a politician can crow about bringing inflation down 25%. But it is still 50% higher than where it started. These are the kind of concerns the Fed and other world central banks face today. Do they start hiking rates again as they are doing in the UK to continue to fight against inflation, or do they sit tight and see if the recent spike in rates will start to have the desired effect? With Venus about to turn retrograde on July 22, we will soon find out, for under this retrograde, central banks often make surprise announcements and changes of policy. Because Venus is retrograde, it is often the case that the sudden policy changes don’t work out as planned. On a more personal level, since Venus rules beauty and appearance, the same can be said about decisions regarding these matters as well. Venus will be retrograde through the first week of September, so it may be wise to postpone any cosmetic surgery or costly home improvement decisions until then.
In terms of markets, the July 21 period contains some other very powerful gecosmic reversal signatures as well. As mentioned last week, “And then the next big bang erupts as Mars opposes Saturn (war-like and hot), the Sun opposes Pluto (possible threats and danger to crops and life), Jupiter semi-squares Neptune (floods and more irrational enthusiasm or panic), and the biggest bang of them all, Venus turns retrograde.” It’s possible that the contra-trends which started last week could continue into July 21 +/- 1 week. If so, another excellent trading period is right around the corner.
Thus, our July 16 Annual Mid-Year Webinar on Financial Markets will be very timely as we will outline which markets we think are poised to offer the most rewarding trading and investment opportunities as we head into powerful geocosmic signatures of July 21. We look forward to seeing many of you then, as there will be no column issued next week.
NOTE 1: ONE MORE WEEK!!! SIGN UP NOW! The Annual Mid-Year 2023 Webinar with Raymond Merriman and MMA Analysts. Next Sunday, July 16, 2023, at 12 PM EDT is MMA’s annual Mid-Year Webinar. This broadcast will address themes from this year’s Forecast 2023 Book, with updates on the U.S. stock market, Gold, and Bitcoin by Ray Merriman; Crude Oil, T-Notes, and Euro by Gianni Di Poce; Copper by Matthieu Kaiser; and Soybeans by Wyatt Fellows. Cost is $55.00 and includes access to the live presentation via Zoom, the slides of the presentation, plus the video recording of the live event 24 hours after the presentation. Questions will be answered that are submitted one week before the event if they are deemed of interest to the overall audience. If you are unable to attend live, the video recording will be available the following day. To register, click here.
NOTE 2: THE JULY ISSUE OF THE MMA Monthly Cycles Report will be released on Monday, July 10. This month’s report will focus on Venus Retrograde, July 22, and its correspondence to the current cycle labeling and outlook in the U.S. Stock Market, Gold, Silver, Copper, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil, and Soybeans. The Monthly Cycles Report reviews MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks as well as trading strategies for position and aggressive traders during the next month. With Venus turning retrograde on July 22, this is an important period for financial markets! If you would like to try out one month of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, you can sign up for the July Report for only $35!
NOTE 3: SUBSCRIBE TO MMA’S WEEKLY YouTube show, Geocosmic Week in Review and Look Ahead, with Gianni Di Poce. Each 5-15 minute FREE episode reviews the market activity of the past week and offers a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. There will be a slew of special guests coming up in the next month, so stay tuned for announcements via our Twitter feed. You may subscribe to MMA’s YouTube Channel today at no cost and get alerted when a new weekly episode is released! To view this week’s MMA YouTube episode, click here.
NOTE 4: MMA’S FREE WEEKLY COLUMN IS ON APPLE PODCASTS! Now you can listen to a podcast or broadcast of this weekly column by Thomas Miller. The Free Weekly Forecast Podcast is now available on Saturday. Just follow Merriman Market Analyst Spotify to listen to all our episodes. New Podcast episodes will be released every weekend. This is a FREE service and is available to everyone. Checkout out our Podcasts on Apple, Spotify, MMA- Merriman Market Analyst Podcast, and on YouTube, Merriman Market Analyst. It makes for great listening!
NOTE 5: We have posted the first video of MMA’s new series, “Casual Cosmic Conversations,” with Ray Merriman and Antonia Langsdorf-Merriman, being interviewed on current news events by MMA Managing Director (and Ray’s daughter) Alie Schneider. This 20-minute video features their take on the recent Titan submersible tragedy, the new world trends towards a shorter work week and expensive danger-laden adventures, and the recent explosion in AI interest as the beginning stage of the “Aries Vortex” cosmic configuration approaching in February 2026 (Saturn/Neptune conjunction at the midpoint of the Uranus/Pluto trine) – or the “Communication Revolution and Technological Renaissance” that is changing our lives. To view our first episode of “Casual Cosmic Conversations,” please click here.
JULY 16: 12:00 PM EDT: NEXT WEEK! The Annual Mid-Year Market Update Webinar with Raymond Merriman and Team. Save the Date! Starts at 12 PM EDT, which is 5:00 PM GMT, 6:00 PM CET. It will be very early in the morning in Australia, Beijing, and Tokyo. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into MMA’s annual Mid-Year Financial Markets Update Webinar. This broadcast will address the following points:
- The forthcoming Pre-Presidential Election Year Trough in stocks
- The November 18 Sun/Mars conjunction in Scorpio and its correlation to trends in U.S. stock markets and Gold
- Has Gold’s (and Silver’s) long-term cycle topped out, or is there another new high ahead?
- How high can Crude Oil and Bitcoin go?
- How low can the Euro, Soybeans, T-Notes, and Copper fall – and when?
- What can we expect with Venus turning retrograde on July 22?
- What are the other major reversal periods for trading this year?
The cost is $55.00, and includes access to the live presentation via Zoom, the slides of the presentation, plus the video recording of the live event 24 hours after the presentation. Questions will be answered that are submitted one week before the event if they are deemed of interest to the overall audience. If you are unable to attend live, the video recording will be available the following day. To register, click here.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.