NOTE: There will be no free weekly column released next week due to preparations for the February 19 “Annual Worldwide Webinar and Address on Forecast 2023 with Raymond Merriman.” See Announcements below for further details to register and ask questions. 

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President Biden boasted during his State of the Union address about cutting the deficit by a record $1.7 trillion. His putative conversion into a born-again deficit cutter is belied by this week’s Congressional Budget Office federal budget report for January, which shows the deficit has doubled in the first four months of this fiscal year. CBO reports that the budget deficit from October through January swelled to $522 billion from $259 billion in the same period last year. Receipts are tracking $43 billion lower than last year, mostly owing to reduced individual income taxes, while spending is running $220 billion higher. Wall Street Editorial Board, “Biden Tells a Deficit Fairy Tale,” February 10, 2023.

Half the lies they tell about me aren’t true. – Yogi Berra

And the Sun is not even into Pisces yet. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 13, 2023 ©

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nosediving again on Friday following another Federal Reserve decision to hike interest rates. – Joe Toppe, “Dow Nosedives as Traders Continue Selloff on Fed Hike,” www.foxbusiness.com, December 16, 2022.

The Sun/Neptune square has a strong correlation to reversals in the DJIA within four trading days. Like all aspects with Neptune, this one too can correspond with hopes and wishes about the future of equity prices. However, if it corresponds with a high, or secondary high to the crest of December 1-2, it could lead to a sharp reversal down into and beyond the Jupiter/Uranus semi-square of December 23. – Last week’s column.

Sure enough, the U.S. and many other world stock indices topped out last week, December 13-14, and began a nosedive as the cosmos shifts from Neptune’s “irrational exuberance” to the more chaotic Jupiter/Uranus theme that culminates next week.

The DJIA, for instance, peaked at 34,712 on December 13, its highest level since April, and up 21% from its yearly low of 28,660 on October 13. By Friday, just three trading days lower, it had declined to a low of 32,654, a decline of over 2000 points and nearly 6%. This fits with our studies reported in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. Those studies showed a 78% rate of frequency to 4% or greater reversals in the DJIA within 4 trading days of the Sun/Neptune waning square. Monday will be the fourth day. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 19, 2022 ©

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Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed’s market’s group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar to speed up settlement time in currency markets. – Lananh Nguyen, “Banking Giants and New York Fed Start 12-Week Digital Dollar Pilot,” Reuters, November 15, 2022. 

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday that “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.” He suggested that the appropriate zone for the federal funds rate could be in the 5% to 7% range, which is higher than what the market is pricing. – Tanaya Micheel and Alex Harring, “S&P 500 Closes Higher on Friday, but Ends Week with Losses,” www.cnbc.com, November 18, 2022.

The DJIA followed the lunar cycle to a ‘T’ last week with a new high on Tuesday and a low on Thursday, followed by another healthy rally on Friday. Tuesday was the day of Venus trine Jupiter (‘Law of Abundance’ signature) and Thursday was the Moon in Virgo headed to the Mars/Neptune square. The U.S. stock markets basically paused their prior gains since the primary cycle low of October 13, when Mars also squared Neptune. It’s doing it again this weekend, only this time Mars is retrograde and the market is closer to a new cycle high than low.  Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 21, 2022 ©

NOTE: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday 

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 led a mixed market Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back as investors wrapped the worst stretch since the pandemic amid inflation and recession fears. In commodities, oil fell 9.2% to $109.56 per barrel for the week. – “U.S. Stocks Close Our Worst Week Since the Pandemic,” www.foxbusiness.com, June 17, 2022.

The Fed has a classic dilemma. Inflation is mainly driven by either prices it cannot control (commodity related) or prices no one pays (owners’ equivalent rent, which is signaling a rising price of home ownership when most US homeowners pay a lower price than two years’ ago). Many prices the Fed can influence are in disinflation or outright deflation (over 3% of the CPI basket has year-on-year deflation). The Fed’s dilemma is how much more deflation to create in prices it can control, to offset the inflation in prices it cannot control. Dr. Paul Donovan, economist, “How Much Deflation?” UBS Morning Audio Comment, www.ubs.com, June 13, 2022. 

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This is getting pretty ugly. You get the feeling that Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk might be right when they stated in the last couple of weeks (and quoted here), regarding financial markets, something like: “Houston. Houston! We have a problem.” Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 20, 2022 ©