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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the run-up in long-term Treasury yields could allow the central bank to suspend a historic run of interest-rate increases so long as recent progress on inflation continues. That is in part because the swift rise in long-term rates over the past month could slow the economy, effectively substituting for another Fed hike if higher borrowing costs are sustained. – Nick Timiraos, “Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause,” Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2023.
The most-actively traded gold futures contract jumped 1.2% Friday to cross $2,000 a troy ounce for the first time since late July. The war between Hamas and Israel has made haven-asset gold, which is prized for its stability during times of market turmoil, more popular. The yellow metal has rallied about 8% since the conflict began. – Hardika Singh, “Gold Prices Top $2,000 For the First Time Since July,” Wall Street Journal Online, October 20, 2023.
Jupiter, the planet of optimism and good times, has been in the sign of Taurus the bull since May 16, 2023. However, world stock indices have been anything but optimistic or bullish since Venus, the ruler of Taurus, went retrograde in late July.
There are two points to make here. First, Venus retrograde or direct is often the high or low of the year in world stock markets. This year fits that correspondence once again as Venus turned retrograde on July 22, the high for this year was on July 19 in the NASDAQ, and August 1 for the DJIA. Venus then turned direct on September 3, and the secondary high (and crest of the current primary cycle) in U.S. stocks was on September 1. Second, the majority of stock market cycles since the 1890s with Jupiter in Taurus have more frequently exhibited bearish trends, not bullish. Maybe Taurus‘ mascot should change from a bull to a bear before the cosmic compliance office accuses market watchers of willful misinformation. In many of these cases, the stock market remained bearish until Jupiter reached Leo, +/- one sign, which will be in effect June 2025-August 2028. We will share this information in greater detail in this year’s Forecast 2024 Book, which is being written now and expected to be completed by November 21, then printed and released on December 15, as always. It’s another action thriller.
For the week, the pattern was once again similar in most global stock markets. That is, most made a major cycle low October 4-6, then a major cycle crest October 11-13, and then fell hard to end last week on October 20. The pattern of lower highs and lower troughs of the same cycle type continues, too, which is a classic definition (for us) of a bearish trend.
In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the only variance to this pattern was in China, where the Shanghai Composite plunged to its lowest level since a long-term cycle began at the low of October 31, 2022. It’s bad all over the world, but worse in China and Switzerland.
In Europe, the pattern was also the same, except declines below the lows of October 4 were notched in the German DAX and Zurich SMI. The DAX fell to 14,798 on Friday, its lowest level since the primary bottom of March. It was even more depressing in Switzerland, where the SMI just collapsed back to its lows of last October, suggesting a 4-year or greater cycle crest is in. The worry is that China and Switzerland may be leading the world stock markets lower.
In the Americas, there was no variance. All major indices we track made lows on October 4, rallied into October 11-13 and ended last week challenging their lows of two weeks ago.
One point of interest is that stocks and metals had been moving together for several weeks. In our recent interviews, it was pointed out that they could very well decouple when Mars moved into Scorpio, which is exactly what has been happening since October 13. That is, stocks have reversed down, and Gold has accelerated sharply higher. In fact, December Gold reached a new 3-month high on Friday at 2009. Silver also did well, surging to a high of 23.88. Two weeks earlier, Gold was trading at 1823 and Silver at 20.85.
This is the pattern we expected in our special Gold report that was issued on October 4, right as Silver bottomed and just two days before the lows in Gold. As an analyst and trader, I know you are only as good as your last call. Right now, I am good. In fact, I am very good because the options we recommended on Gold futures in that special update have appreciated several times over their entry point. You only get 2-3 opportunities per year like this in each market. These are the trades we live for, although the circumstances that led to these trading successes are far from something to celebrate.
In other markets, Crude Oil tested the $90.00 mark when, just two weeks ago, it was trading at 81.50. Bitcoin soared above $30,000 again, its highest mark since late July.
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
“This conflict right now could end right this second if Hamas were to put down its weapons, and there would be peace. If the Jews put down their weapons, there would be no more Jews in the Middle East.” – James Kirchick, guest on the “Real Time with Bill Maher” show last week, HBO.
War continues to rear its ugly head with the most depraved behavior exhibited by humans against one another as earth barrels ahead to the most dangerous aspects of the year in October and November.
The Sun approaching Mars in Scorpio, while near the same time being in opposition to both Jupiter and Uranus and headed to a square of Saturn (now through November 25, and especially November 11-25), is an aspect consistent with conflict and threats of war. It is naïve to not think the world could be on the verge of war as Pluto is moving back and forth into Aquarius (2023-2025), Neptune approaching its entrance into Aries (2024-2025), and Uranus heading towards Gemini (2025) when the last time each of these ingresses happened singly coincided with the three greatest wars in American history (Revolutionary War, Civil War, and World War II).
This is a war cycle, but as with all cycles – rhythmic or planetary –the previous outcomes need not repeat if world leaders (and their adversaries) simply make different decisions regarding the advent of similar themes. But to do that, they would have to change their beliefs that place more importance on diversity and division (of thought and race) than upon unity and those matters that bind us together as human beings and part of the greater human race. We talk about doing this and then fight over it with threats to wipe out a whole swatch of humanity to attain unity. This is symbolic of one possible manifestation of the Sun/Mars in opposition to Jupiter and Uranus. And as long as it manifests in this form, Gold, Crude Oil, and Uranium can continue to appreciate in value while investors in equities stand aside until some sort of normalcy returns. They may have to wait awhile.
Shorter-term, the Sun will enter Scorpio on October 22, the same day Venus will make a favorable trine with Jupiter. This is followed by another trine, this time involving the Sun and Saturn, on October 24. These signatures may provide some short-term relief from the horrors and brutality of the past two weeks. But right afterwards, on October 28, Mars will start a series of new hard aspects, first with its opposition to Jupiter. These continue through November 25, a period which finds six Level 1 signatures unfolding (Level 1 signatures have the highest correlation to primary cycles in stock indices, +/- 10 trading days). This means geopolitical tensions that result in sharp swings in several financial markets. On a personal level, it means many people will tend to behave erratically and possibly be given to rash and disruptive actions. It is a time when one is advised to take the time to think things out clearly before overreacting with rage, for the consequences may be hard to undo.
Q & A With Ray
We are going to add this new feature to our weekly column. We often get questions from those just entering markets who want to know how to use our reports effectively. Many don’t understand futures or how to convert our futures recommendations for certain stocks and ETFs. So, we will field one question every week in which we have time to answer.
This week’s question comes from subscriber Ingrid, who asks: “I would like to set the selling point correct instead of waiting and watch when in GC1! the point is hit. In this case, it is 2000 in GC1!. What is the reference point? Where is the corresponding line in the G2X chart? Just simple things like which chart do you have to look at if I want to understand and follow you. I had to find out “simple” things, like finding out the ticker for gold is GC1! Just to give you an idea.”
A: There is no simple rule to calculate the corresponding price of a stock or ETF to a futures contract, mainly because futures trade 23 hours/day and ETFs and stocks only about seven hours. In many cases, our price target in futures is hit outside of those seven hours in which the stock or ETF trades. And in the case of Gold, the only ETF that tracks Gold is GLD, whereas other ETFs track gold mining stocks. The problem there is that the miners will usually move in the direction of Gold, but if it conflicts with the direction of stocks, it is pulled in opposite directions. Last week, Gold soared, and stocks fell, and the miner’s stocks went back and forth.
The data (prices) we use for calculating Gold futures prices comes from www.cmegroup.com. It provides data on the 23-hour Globex. We prefer the settlement that happens after the 5 PM Globex close, compared to the COMEX, which reports settlement about 3 hours earlier. The symbols given on www.cmegroup.com are the ones most market software programs provide and are different than those given on yahoo.com/finance. I hope this helps.
Please don’t hesitate to ask other questions as long as they don’t involve things like: “What will the market do next week?” That’s what we cover in our subscription reports for subscribers 😊. But questions about how to use our reports are always welcomed. Have a great week ahead!
NOTE 1: LAST WEEK TO SAVE ON FORECAST 2024 BOOK!!!! The “Annual Forecast Pre-Order Event” is underway and will end October 31st. That’s one week from this Wednesday! This super sale includes our once-a-year sale discounts on both the annual Forecast Book and all MMA Subscription Reports $275+. You may pre-order Forecast 2024 Print at the discounted rate of $55, or the eBook at $45. And the best deal on MMA Subscription Reports is also offered at this time! Save 10% off any subscription ($275+) with purchase of Forecast 2024 by using discount code: SALE2024 at checkout.
After the pre-order event ends on November 1st, the retail price of Forecast 2024 Print increases to $66, and the eBook increases to $55.
MMA will also offer a special “bundle” discount rate for those who wish to order both the eBook and print editions of Forecast 2024. The eBook usually comes out 1-2 weeks before the print edition, and avoids delays caused by the postal system, especially if overseas. Yet many readers prefer the print edition, so ordering both via the Forecast 2024 Bundle makes sense. You will receive the eBook on December 15th, and your Print copy will be mailed mid-December.
This year’s printed and eBook versions will also be available in these languages:
We created an updated list of our most common Forecast FAQs to help this Forecast season.
The Forecast 2023 Scorecard of the Forecast 2023 Book can now be viewed by clicking here.
NOTE 2: Special Offer this season!!! MMA’s newest monthly report, “MMA Monthly Grains Report” by Grains Analyst Wyatt Fellows. The cost of this subscription is normally $325, but on sale now for only $300 for a 1-Year subscription. If ordered together with the Forecast 2024 Book, there will be a further 10% discount bringing the cost of the report down to only $270 for a 1-Year Subscription! To order, click here. The next Grain Cycles Report will be issued October 30th.
NOTE 3: THE OCTOBER ISSUE OF THE MMA Monthly Cycles Report was released last week, October 16th. The major moves (reversals) we anticipated for precious metals in the last report is now underway. This issue pointed out when this rally might end, according to our market timing studies. It also covered our outlook for when the next important stock market rally might commence (we’ve been bearish). Each Cycles report covers the outlook in the U.S. Stock Market, Gold, Silver, Copper, Treasuries, Euro Currency, Crude Oil, and Soybeans. The MMA Monthly Cycles Report reviews MMA’s original geocosmic critical reversal dates (CRDs) and Solar/Lunar reversal dates over the next several weeks with trading strategies for position and aggressive traders during the next month. If you would like to try out one month of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, you can sign up for the October Report for only $35!
NOTE 4: The MMA Monthly ETF Report by Gianni Di Poce will be issued this week. Many have asked about a monthly report on Bitcoin, and the Monthly ETF Report does this via BITO, the ETF on Bitcoin. Written by MMA market analyst Gianni Di Poce, the ETF is a monthly newsletter that everyone trading ETFs is encouraged to read, especially those that seek less risky trading venues than futures. This report covers 8 ETFs on a monthly basis for readers. The ETFs include: SPY (S&P 500), GDX (gold miners), BITO (Bitcoin), TLT (+20-year Treasuries), USO (Crude Oil), XLV (healthcare), XLK (technology), and XHB (homebuilders). This is a report that was requested by popular demand, and Gianni’s insights and strategies are excellent. For further information, click here.
NOTE 5: THE MMA WEEKLY YouTube show, Geocosmic Week in Review and Look Ahead, with Gianni Di Poce, is now conducted on Wednesday evenings! Each 5-15 minute FREE episode reviews the market activity of the past week and offers a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. You may subscribe to MMA’s YouTube Channel today at no cost and get alerted when a new weekly episode is released!
NOTE 6: MMA’S FREE WEEKLY COLUMN IS NOW ON SPOTIFY, APPLE, AND AMAZON PODCAST! Now you can listen to a podcast of this weekly column by Thomas Miller on Saturdays! Just follow Merriman Market Analyst on Spotify or Apple to listen to all our episodes. New Podcast episodes will be released every weekend. This is a FREE service and is available to everyone. Checkout out our Podcasts on Apple, Spotify, and Apple Music. .It makes for great listening!
December 10, 2023: SPECIAL “INTRODUCTION TO OPTIONS” WORKSHOP. On September 30 and October 7, veteran options trader and MMTA student Derek Panaia gave a presentation to MMTA students on how to use options and option spreads to trade big moves in Gold as suggested by MMA market timing methods. The strategies he presented during these two presentations have so far resulted in gains exceeding 500% in less than 2 weeks. By popular demand , the students have requested a full three-hour Zoom workshop on his methods, and MMA will sponsor this workshop on Sunday, December 10.
In this workshop, Derek will discuss the nature of options, terminology, and calculations of Delta and other Greeks, to determine the best value options to trade at the given time. He will also cover simple option strategies with limited risks like bull and bear spreads when large price moves are anticipated. His strategy to buy Gold calls and bull option spreads in early October has already resulted in exceptional profits for MMTA students. He will revisit this trade and discuss new strategies in other markets that look attractive for options trading in early December. The cost will be $195.00 if registered before December 1, and $250 afterwards. Registration for this workshop is now open. Click here for more information and registration.
January 12, 2024. “Trends for 2024,” sponsored by AstroData of Zurich, Switzerland. Speakers to be announced shortly, but will include Ray Merriman giving his outlook on 2024. This event is in German, and Merriman’s presentation will be translated from English to German. For further information, contact www.AstroData.com.
February 18, 2024, MMA’s Annual Forecast 2024 World Webinar. Details and reservations will be opened after January 1. Save the Date!
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.