Free Weekly Forecast
November 24, 2023
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday, as the major averages notched a four-week winning streak. The moves come as Treasury yields this week hit multi-month lows on hope inflation is cooling and the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates. The benchmark rate was up 6 basis points at around 4.476% on Friday. – Hakyung Kim, Fred Imbert, “Dow Closes 100 Points Higher Friday as Major Averages Rise for a 4th Straight Week,” www.cnbc.com, November 24, 2023.
In the shortened holiday week, U.S. stock indices continued an impressive rally that began from their 50-week cycle low on October 27. Multi-week or multi-month highs were also notched in other world stock indices, except in Australia, the UK, and Hong Kong. Perhaps the most impressive stock market was Japan, where the Nikkei soared to its highest level since its all-time high in late 1989 and early 1990.
November 17, 2023
NOTE: U.S. markets will be closed Thursday, November 23, in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.
The U.S. economy is approaching what most economists had thought either unlikely or impossible: inflation returning to its prepandemic norm without a recession or even much economic weakness, a so-called soft landing. Six months ago, the consensus among economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal was that the economy would enter a recession over the next 12 months. In October’s survey, the average forecast of economists was for no recession. After Tuesday, the probability appears to have dropped further. If they are right, it would be highly unusual. In the past 80 years, the Federal Reserve has never managed to bring inflation down substantially without sparking a recession. – David Harrison and Jeffrey Sparshott, “Economy Closes In On a Soft Landing,” Wall Street Journal, November 16, 2023.
Add falling supplier prices to the good inflation news of the week. The producer-price index fell 0.5% in October from the previous month, the largest single month decline since early in the pandemic. That follows a cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report for October released on Tuesday, which showed that consumer price growth was flat from the prior month. The encouraging readings likely confirm that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates in its current cycle. – Gabriel Rubin, “More Good News on the Inflation Front.” Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2023.
November 10, 2023
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he and his colleagues remain steadfast in getting policy in line with their 2% inflation goal, but “we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance.” – Jeff Cox, “Powell Says Fed is ‘Not Confident’ It Has Done Enough to Bring Inflation Down,” www.cnbc.com, November 9, 2023.
Global stock indices continued their impressive rallies following their multi-month lows of October 23-30 in most cases. It may be related to the Sun/Mars conjunction of November 18. As discussed in several reports, global stock markets tend to fall at least 8% from their previous high when this aspect is within 8 degrees. That orb began about the time the Sun entered Scorpio on October 23.
November 03, 2023
Bad news about the labor market is good news for stocks today. All three major U.S. indexes climbed Friday, helping them to their best weeks of the year. One reason: The latest jobs report showed hiring slowed. The U.S. added 150,000 jobs in October, below economists’ projections, while the unemployment rate was slightly higher than expected. That’s a sign that the economy is cooling. For investors, that suggests the Fed might stop raising interest rates. Bond yields tumbled after the report. – Anna Hirtenstein and Hannah Miao, ”U.S. Indexes Log Best Week of 2023 After Jobs Report,” Wall Street Journal Online, November 3, 2023.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The decision marked the second consecutive meeting at which the Fed left rates unchanged after a long campaign of increases. – David Marino-Nachison, “Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged,” Wall Street Journal November 1, 2023.
October 27, 2023
Dollars to defeat Russian and Iranian aggression are necessary. Yet with $33 trillion in debt, there is no room for both guns and butter. – Kimberly Strassel, “Biden’s Supplemental War Games,” Wall Street Journal, October 27, 2024.
If you are a subscriber to MMA’s daily, weekly, or monthly reports, you probably have only one market on your mind right now, and that’s Gold. This splendid yellow metal has now appreciated 10-fold and more in the options strategies provided in MMA’s special Gold report issued on October 4. Gold itself has now rallied from a low of 1823.50 on October 6 to a high of 2019.70 as of Friday, October 27, a gain of nearly $200 in just three weeks.
October 20, 2023
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the run-up in long-term Treasury yields could allow the central bank to suspend a historic run of interest-rate increases so long as recent progress on inflation continues. That is in part because the swift rise in long-term rates over the past month could slow the economy, effectively substituting for another Fed hike if higher borrowing costs are sustained. – Nick Timiraos, “Jerome Powell Signals Fed Will Extend Interest-Rate Pause,” Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2023.
The most-actively traded gold futures contract jumped 1.2% Friday to cross $2,000 a troy ounce for the first time since late July. The war between Hamas and Israel has made haven-asset gold, which is prized for its stability during times of market turmoil, more popular. The yellow metal has rallied about 8% since the conflict began. – Hardika Singh, “Gold Prices Top $2,000 For the First Time Since July,” Wall Street Journal Online, October 20, 2023.
October 13, 2023
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“Oil, U.S. Treasuries, and gold prices rose on Friday, with crude soaring nearly 6%, on safe-haven buying driven by the escalating Middle East conflict as Israel urged civilians to leave the northern Gaza Strip. – Caroline Valetkevitch, “Oil, Treasuries, Gold Prices Jump Amid Mideast Fears,” Reuters, October 13, 2023.
The war in Ukraine, along with the unprecedented attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas last weekend, may have “far-reaching impacts on energy and food markets, global trade and geopolitical relationships,” Dimon said in a statement accompanying the bank’s third-quarter earnings release. “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” Jamie Dimon said. – Megan Henney, “JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns: ‘This May be the Most Dangerous Time the World has seen in Decades’: Sounds Alarm over Economic Outlook Amid Israel-Hamas War,” www.foxbusiness.com, October 13, 2023.
October 06, 2023
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Stocks rallied Friday even after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and a pop in Treasury yields. The U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 170,000 jobs. Stocks posted a stunning turnaround on Friday, after initially falling on the stronger-than-expected jobs report. At its session low, the Dow had fallen as much as 272 points; it surged by more than 400 points at the height of the rally. – Sarah Min and Hakyung Kim, “Dow Soars Nearly 300 Points Friday After Hot Jobs Report,” October 6, 2023, www.cnbc.com.
Government! Three-fourths parasitic and the other fourth stupid fumbling. – Robert Heinlein, “Stranger in a Strange Land,” G.P. Putnam’s Sons, 1961.
Members of the US Congress are now incapable of doing anything. Financial markets are not surprised that members of the US Congress are incapable of doing anything. Investors only care whether House Republicans can get the extreme wing under control long enough to elect a speaker before the next government shutdown in mid-November. Dr. Paul Donovan, “US Politicians are Incapable of Doing Anything,” UBS Morning Comment, October 4, 2023.
September 29, 2023
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated on Friday as investors followed the latest news about a potential government shutdown and ended what has been a tough month for stocks. – Alex Harring, Sarah Min, and Pia Singh, “S&P 500 and Nasdaq Wrap Worst Month in 2023,” www.cnbc.com, September 29, 2023.
This was the week that Venus made its third and final square to Uranus (Friday, September 29). One of the outcomes of a hard aspect between Venus and Uranus can be either a breakout of multi-month support/resistance, or a reversal. In this passage, it is coinciding with breakouts so far. Last week witnessed several global stock indices break one support after another. The same happened with Gold, which fell to a low of 1862.30 on Friday, its lowest price since early March.
September 22, 2023
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REVIEW AND PREVIEW
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials surprised markets by signaling interest rates won’t fall as much as previously planned. The tweak might be more important than it looks. In their projections and commentary, some officials hint that rates might be higher not just for longer, but forever. – Greg Ip, “Higher Rates Not Just for Longer – Maybe Forever,” Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2023.
The United Auto Workers is expanding strikes to 38 parts and distribution locations across 20 states, targeting General Motors and Stellantis, UAW President Shawn Fain said Friday morning. The union will not initiate additional strikes at Ford Motor, as the company has proven it’s “serious about reaching a deal,” Fain said. – Michael Wayland, “UAW Targets 38 Facilities at GM and Stellantis for Expanded Strikes,” www.cnbc.com, September 22, 2023.