Free Weekly Forecast
February 14, 2020
The federal budget deficit grew 25% in the first four months of the fiscal year… Over the 12 months that ended in January, receipts rose 6.7%, the most since February 2016. Outlays were up 8.8%, pushing the overall deficit to 1.06 trillion, a 16.4% increase from a year earlier. Kate Davidson, “Deficit Widens as Spending Hits High,” Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2020.
(Judy Shelton’s) vigorous public defense of monetary stability as a solution to the (lack of) productivity (puzzle challenges defenders of today’s orthodoxy to explain how their model is any better than a fixed standard such as the gold she advocates. They can’t do it in light of the serial disasters of the past 50 years. No wonder her nomination (to the Fed) elicited such shameful vitriol from the economics professorial and their friends in the press. Their beef with Ms. Shelton isn’t that she’s a not. It’s that she might be right. – Joseph C. Sternberg, “Why the Economics Establishment Hates Judy Shelton,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2020.
February 07, 2020
Stocks fell on Friday as worries over the coronavirus’ impact on the Chinese economy outweighed the release of the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data.. The spike in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths came as investors pored through the latest U.S. jobs report. The U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs in January. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 158,000 jobs. Wages rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, also topping expectations. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Drops More Than 250 Points,” www.cnbc.com, February 7, 2020.
“It was all bullshit. It was hell,” Trump said. “It was evil, it was corrupt, it was dirty cops, it was leakers and liars,” – ‘It Was Hell’: Trump Celebrates Impeachment Acquittal, While Ripping Democrats and Romney,” Christina Wilkie, www.cnbc.com, February 7, 2020.
January 31, 2020
Stocks fell sharply on Friday, wiping out the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain for January, as investors grew increasingly worried about the potential economic impact of China’s fast-spreading coronavirus. The Dow dropped 650 points, or 2.3%, after Delta and American suspended all flights between China and the U.S. United Airlines announced similar measures later in the day. The Dow was also on pace for its worst day since August… Ilya Feygin, senior strategist at WallachBeth Capital, noted, “there’s fear going into the weekend. The theme coming into this year was the Fed and Trump are going to bail us out of any problems, but the virus is something neither one can do anything about. That’s a reason to become more fearful.” – Fred Imbert, “Dow Plunges 650 Points as Friday’s Sell-Off Tied to the Coronavirus Accelerates Into the Close.” www.cnbc.com, January 31, 2020.
January 25, 2020
Stocks fell on Friday after the second U.S. case of the deadly coronavirus was confirmed, stoking concerns over the sickness’ impact on the global economy. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Drops 250 Points After a Second US Coronavirus is Confirmed,” www.cnbc.com, January 24, 2020.
Oil is on track for its worst week since May as the coronavirus outbreak continues to pressure prices. A slowdown in China’s economy would impact demand because China is the world’s largest crude oil importer. China is also the second-largest oil consumer, behind the United States. On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.8%, or $1.53, to $54.06, the lowest level since Nov. 1. – Pippa Stevens, “Crude Oil Drops the Most Since May on Fears Coronavirus Will Hit Growth,” www.cnbc.com, January 24, 2020.
January 17, 2020
Stock markets were up sharply last week, with several making new all-time or multi-year highs. This was more a reflection of the bullish side of Uranus turning direct on January 10 than it was of the Saturn/Pluto conjunction on January 12. As readers know, a strong Uranus signature can coincide with a reversal of the trend, or a breakout and acceleration of the trend. No resistance or support line is safe under a prominent Uranus signature, fir Uranus just lives to break through any boundaries or limits. In this case, it broke through resistance to new all-time highs in the U.S., Australia, India, and Switzerland. The Netherlands AEX also moves to a new 18-year high, while the DAX of Germany and Nikkei of Japan are closing in on either new all-time records or multi-year highs.
Of course, such strong market moves are usually the result of strong economic or political news. And last week exhibited a dual dose of good economic news with the trade pact signings of the United States between its neighbors (USMC) and China.
January 10, 2020
NOTE: Due to my speaking duties, and preparations for the international Saturn/Pluto conference in Zurich this weekend, this week’s column will be abbreviated. I apologize for that as I know this is a very important time, both in terms of geocosmic factors and world events.
U.S. hiring cooled in December, as the economy added 145,000 jobs, ending the decade on a weaker-than-expected note. The final payroll number of 2019 missed the estimate of 164,000 from economists surveyed by Refinitiv. Unemployment remained at 3.5 percent, a half-century low, as more people were looking for work, the Labor Department said Friday. Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose by 2.9 percent over the past year to $28.32. – Megan Henney, US Job Growth Slows in December, Ending 2019 on Weaker-Than-Expected Note,” www.foxbusiness.com, January 10, 2020.
January 03, 2020
The Pentagon said the U.S. military killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in Baghdad Friday at the direction of Trump. The attack is expected to draw severe Iranian retaliation against Israel and American interests. – Ken Martin, “Democrats Call U.S. Killing of Iranian General ‘Reckless’”, foxbusiness.com, January 3, 2020.
Welcome to a New Year, a new decade, and a new ingress of Mars into Sagittarius. As reported in this column several times in the past, the passage of Mars through Sagittarius-Capricorn has a remarkable correspondence with major crises erupting in the Middle East, and often corresponding with a period danger and threats to Israel from her neighbors, or from within.
December 27, 2019
NOTE: THERE IS NO WEEKLY COLUMN THIS WEEK. WE ARE STILL ON A HOLIDAY
However, we thought it would be a good time to review our MMA Daily subscription reports for
active traders, as we ended the year with very profitable trades on stock indices and precious metals.
REVIEW: BEST TRADES AND WORST TRADE OF THE YEAR
December 21, 2019
NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO WEEKLY COLUMN NEXT WEEK. We will return January 3. From all of us at MMA, to all of you from around the world, thank you for your support of this weekly column for the past 21 years. Best wishes for a wonderful holiday season, and a most prosperous and Happy New Year! It’s going to be a big year in terms of the cosmic patterns. Three conjunctions of the outer planets in Capricorn! As outlined in the Forecast 2020 book, it’s a year for Heroes and Villains. Be brave and honest, and choose your actions with a sense of their consequences, as a hero would.
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Markets are shrugging off the impeachment of President Donald Trump because he is not expected to be removed from office, and there should be no negative impacts on fiscal or monetary policy as a result. Investors have instead focused on recent positive developments, like the trade agreement being worked out between the Trump administration and China, which should stop some strains on the economy and earnings. “Trump needed his victories. He’s got NAFTA, we got a China deal, and we got a budget. He got all these victories while he was under impeachment,” said Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas.- Patti Domm, “Here is Why the Stock Market is Ignoring Trump’s Impeachment by the House,” www.cnbc.com, December 19, 2019.
December 14, 2019
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
President Trump has agreed to a limited trade pact with Beijing that will roll back existing tariff rates on Chinese goods and cancel new levies set to take place on Sunday as part of a deal to boost Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods and obtain other concessions. – Lingling Wei, Bob Davis, William Mauldin, and Josh Zumbrun, “U.S. Agrees to Limited China Trade Deal,” Wall Street Journal, December 13, 2019.
Not bad for a Friday the 13th. The holiday season known for “giving” was very much in evidence last week as a lot of good things happened for financial markets. For one, the Fed announced that it would leave rates steady for the indefinite future, or until inflation shows signs of rising beyond the boundaries the Fed has established as “in control” for more than just a short-term. It was an unspoken understanding that they would not move rates at all during the upcoming election year. However, they probably are not aware that between May 13 and June 25, 2020, Venus will turn retrograde, a time when they (or other central banks) often change their policies with unexpected announcements of policy changes.