MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 14, 2021 ©

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Consumer prices for May accelerated at their fastest pace in nearly 13 years as inflation pressures continued to build in the U.S. economy. The consumer price index, which represents a basket including food, energy, groceries, housing costs and sales across a spectrum of goods, rose 5% from a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a gain of 4.7%. The reading represented the biggest CPI gain since the 5.3% increase in August 2008, just before the financial crisis sent the U.S. spiraling into the worst recession since the Great Depression. – Jeff Cox, “Consumer Prices Jump 5% in May, Fastest Pace Since the Summer of 2008,” www.cnbc.com, June 10, 2021.

The Fed announced a new policy doctrine almost a year ago (that) it would no longer consider lags when making monetary policy, forsaking the policy of “pre-emption.” (The) Fed believe the party is just getting started and won’t remove the punchbowl until the fun is in full swing and the neighbors know it. The Fed’s new doctrine is a catalyst for heightened concern… The resulting U.S. Dollar weakness poses a host of dangers, including inflation risks… The scale of government spending and scope of government activity are unprecedented… The Fed should change its policy regime. It should not tolerate Fed-financed fiscal expansion. – Kevin Warsh (former member of the Federal Reserve Board), “The Fed’s Risky Fill-the- Punch-Bowl-Strategy,” Wall Street Journal, June 8, 2021.

We are right in the middle of Mercury retrograde and the second (of three) passage of the powerful Saturn/Uranus waning square, arguably the dominant and most important geocosmic event of 2021. World equity markets continue to exhibit cases of intermarket bearish divergence, which is typical of Mercury retrograde. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 7, 2021 ©

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Job creation disappointed again in May, with nonfarm payrolls up what normally would be considered a solid 559,000 but still short of lofty expectations, the Labor Department reported Friday. Payrolls were expected to increase by 671,000.– Jeff Cox, “Job Creation Accelerated in May but is Still Below Lofty Expectations,” www.cnbc.com, June 4, 2021.

President Biden painted a rosy picture of America’s economic rebound and claimed he beats all other presidents for job creation during their first three months in office. Biden, indeed, created the most jobs in his first three months than any other president — about 1.5 million — but that’s partly because the U.S. population is larger than in the past. When calculated as a percentage of the workforce, job growth under President Jimmy Carter increased more quickly from February through April 1977 than the same three months this year. –Marisa Schultz, “Biden Touts ‘Fastest Job Creation’ of any President in US History,”  www.foxbusiness.com, May 28, 2021.

Here we are again. The last instance of Saturn in waning square to Uranus was 45 years ago, in 1976-1977. We have pointed out the similarities between Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter, who was elected President in 1976 and started his term in January 1977. Correspondences exist in personality, correlations to their election-year cycles and geocosmics, and now with similar economic results after their first three months in office. You may also remember what happened afterwards. 1976-77 was the beginning of the huge surge in inflation that eventually led to stagflation for much of the next decade. Once again, our future may be held hostage to history, as noted by the correlation of planetary cycles to cycles in human activity. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 31, 2021 ©

PLEASE  NOTE: U.S. markets are closed on Monday, May 31, for the Memorial Day holiday 

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U.S. equity markets flirted with record highs Friday as President Biden unveiled his $6 trillion budget proposal. Biden’s proposed budget would fund massive social programs. It would result in a $1.8 trillion deficit. Elsewhere in the economy, core personal consumption expenditures, which exclude food and energy, jumped 0.7% month over month and 3.1% annually, which was the biggest reading in at least 28 years. The 1.2 percentage point annual increase from March was the largest since recordkeeping began in 1960. – Jonathan Garber, “Stocks Rally Despite Inflation Uptick, Biden’s $6T Budget,  www.foxbusiness.com, May 28, 2021.

The Jupiter-in-Pisces spending blowout begins to take shape now and investors still love the idea. And why not? More money in the economy means more money to spend on stocks – and commodities, Bitcoin, and houses. Inflating assets is one of the ways the government and central banks believe that debt levels can eventually be contained, and we should know if that belief is true or not in the next three years as Pluto rounds out its 15-year trek through Capricorn. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 17, 2021 ©

PLEASE  NOTE: There will be no column written next week due to preparation for Saturday’s mid-year FORECAST 2021 and Financial Markets update. See “Announcements” below for information.

 

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The Labor Department reported its consumer price index jumped 4.2% in April from a year earlier. The data sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to their steepest 3-day decline in nearly seven months. – Gwynn Guilford, “Inflation Surge Rattles Markets,” Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2021.

Last week was a classic mutable-sign and ingress performance for world stock indices.

Global indices opened up strong last week, with both the DJIA and S&P making new all-time highs (ATH) in the U.S., but the NASDAQ fell short once again. The new all-time highs didn’t last long. By  Wednesday, the DJIA had plummeted 1536 points and tested its 45-day moving average for the first time since its primary cycle low of March 4. The S&P fell more, nearly 5%, in those two days, and broke below the 45-day MA. The NASDAQ Composite never made a new all-time high. Its ATH remained at 14,217 on April 29, within the allowable three-day orb of our three-star critical reversal date (CRD) of April 26. By Wednesday, May 12, with the Moon in Gemini (mutable) and Jupiter spending its last day in Aquarius before entering Pisces (mutable), it was testing 13,000, down 8.5% from its ATH. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 10, 2021 ©

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Employers adding a measly 266,000 new jobs – sharply missing Wall Street’s expectations – amid a growing shortage of available workers. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.1% — while it’s still well below the April 2020 peak of 14.7%, it’s about twice the pre-crisis level, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report, released Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expected the report to show that unemployment fell to 5.8% and the economy added 978,000 jobs. – Kristen Altus, “US Labor Secretary on Why Americans Aren’t Going Back to Work,” www.foxbusiness.com/, May 7, 2021.

In any event, a pullback in world equities didn’t start last week, the first week of May– the first week of the month that investors love to chant, “Sell in May and go away.” The only problem is that “selling in May and going away” for more than a month hasn’t worked since 2015. It used to be that you could sell in May and return in October and not miss much. But that hasn’t been the case for several years now. Maybe it will return this year because we have an intermediate-term market cycle that is due, which we will discuss at length in the monthly MMA Cycles Report that comes out this week, and the “Mid-Year Market Review” webinar that will take place May 22 (see “Announcements” below). Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 3, 2021 ©

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Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 6.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in January through March. That left the world’s largest economy within 1% of its peak reached in late 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S.” – Josh Mitchell, “U.S. Economy Bounces Back Near Its Peak,” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2021.

Real GDP rose 6.4% in the period (January-March), as vaccines rolled out, state lockdowns eased, and Americans spent December stimulus payments. The gusher in government transfer payments has hampered the recovery by increasing the incentive not to work. Employers across the country say they can’t find workers due to the federal enhanced $300 weekly jobless benefits that won’t expire until September. Nearly half of unemployed workers can make as much on the couch as they can on the job. – Opinion Page, “The Post-Pandemic Boom: Biden Inherited a Very Strong Recovery, Not a House ‘On Fire,’ ” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2021.

It was a strange and chaotic week for world financial markets, filled with sudden sharp but short-lived reversals – about what one would expect given that Uranus was conjoined in Taurus by Mercury, Venus, and the Sun April 22-30. Uranus-highlighted periods are usually filled with surprises and abrupt changes. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 26, 2021 ©

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Welcome to the Biden boom. “Forecasts” of real economic growth now run in the 7% to 8% range… If that happens it will mark the fastest four-quarter growth spurt since 1984.”– Alan S. Binder, “Welcome to Joe Biden’s Boom Economy,” Wall Street Journal, April 22, 2021.

On Thursday Biden officials leaked that they will soon propose raising the federal tax on capital gains to 43.4% from a top rate of 23.8% today. The midday leak managed to tank stocks with the S&P falling the most in more than a month. Treasury yields also fell on the news as investors discounted the prospect for growth. “A 43.4% Capital Gains Tax?” Opinion Page, Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2021.

Of all the silly things Washington types are saying about the economy, few are more dangerous than the myth of “transitory inflation”… Reduced living standards aren’t an accident. They’re the whole point of today’s economic policy.– Joseph C. Sternberg, “The Permanent Truth About Temporary Inflation,” Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2021.

The market declined most of last week because of the surprise announcement of much higher taxes soon to be proposed. The significance of taxes upon the market was noted in this column the last two weeks due to transits involving Pluto which will be in effect through next week. In fact, Pluto turns stationary retrograde this Tuesday, April 27, one day after the full moon in Scorpio. Pluto rules Scorpio and hence also has an association with taxes and other “Plutonian” matters to be discussed this week. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 19, 2021 ©

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We had an incredible shock, but look how fast we’re bouncing back,” said Alan Sinai. “We’re in the early stages of recovery and we’ve got three to five years to go. I think we’re going to end up in a boom.” That boom might have a potentially troubling side effect. Inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, is expected to jump sharply from 1.7% in February when March data is released Tuesday. “It makes it hard for a forecaster because I’ve never seen anything like this ever,” Mr. Sinai said. – Gwynn Guilford and Anthony DeBarros. “Forecasters Brace for Uncharted Liftoff,” Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2021.

Congratulations to those who want higher inflation. You’ve got it. The U.S. has never before pursued government-spending and monetary expansion of this magnitude with a hot economy and the Fed says it will wait for durable inflation to appear before changing. Good luck. “Inflation Arrives. Is it ‘Transitory’?”, Wall Street Journal Opinion page. April 12, 2021.

They came of age just as the twisted pathway to a new, warped version of the American Dream first came into focus, one built not on morality but on money, not on personal freedom but on personal indulgence, not on the promise of a future but on the mouthwatering appetite for the present. – Glenn Stout, “Tiger Girl and the Candy Kid,” as book-reviewed by Edward Kosner in the Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2021.

Another record week for U.S. and other world stock markets as this bullet train keeps humming along at full throttle. The party inside just keeps getting more and more wild amidst the never-ending stream of cash and talk of more stimulus that keeps fueling this record run. You would think the Sun is in Aries. Oops! It is! And along with Mars (ruler of Aries) in Gemini, both of these fiery planets have been in a strong harmonious aspect with Jupiter and each other the last two trading days. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 12, 2021 ©

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The global economy is likely to expand this year at the fastest pace in at least four decades as vaccine rollouts accelerate and advanced economies spend aggressively to counter the COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdowns. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 6% this year, the most since 1980. – Yuka Hayashi, “IMF Lifts 2021 Growth Forecast to 6%,” Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2021.

A thousand years ago when money meant coins, China invented paper currency. Now the Chinese government is minting cash digitally, in a re-imagination of money that could shake a pillar of American power. Beijing is also positioning the digital Yuan for international use and designating it to be untethered to the global financial system, where the U.S. dollar is king.– James Areddy, “China is Creating Digital Currency, First for a Major Economy,” Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2021.

It was another positive week for global stocks, consistent with the recent history of the month of April. In 15 of the past 16 years, this has been a favorable month for U.S. stocks. Last week didn’t change that trend. In the U.S., both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P made new all-time highs on Friday, April 9, and the NASDAQ Composite is close to doing the same. In Europe, the Netherlands AEX and German DAX indices made new all-time highs last Tuesday. The Zurich SMI closed less than 30 points away from its all-time high and the FTSE rallied to its highest mark since the pandemic crash of March 2020. There were no new all-time highs in Asia or the Pacific Rim, although their markets were higher than the prior week in most cases. The Australian ASX index also rallied to its highest level since the March 2020 pandemic crash. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING APRIL 5, 2021 ©

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Employers added 916,000 jobs in March and the gains from February were revised higher to 468,000 jobs, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expected the addition of 647,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, ticked down to 6%, its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic caused many businesses to at least temporarily close their doors in March of last year. The unemployment rate peaked at a record high of 14.7% in April 2020. – Jonathan Garber, “U.S. Economy Adds 916,000 Jobs in March – The Unemployment Rate Fell to 6%,” www/foxbusinessnews.com, April 2, 2021.

Mr. Biden says he wants “other countries to adopt strong minimum taxes on corporations” so nations like Ireland can no longer compete for capital with lower tax rates. Only in Washington would the left punish American employers in the hope that the rest of the world would be as self-destructive. “Here Come the Biden Taxes,” Opinion Page, Wall Street Journal, April 1, 2021. 

Let’s do a quick review of what has happened in world financial markets this year, and particularly since the first passage of Saturn/Uranus square on February 17. As a point of reference, keep in mind that the Saturn/Uranus waning square is the most significant and the longest planetary cycle in effect in 2021. It is the 11.25-year quarter cycle (third quarter phase) to the greater 45-year Saturn/Uranus cycle, which will reset when these two planets conjoin again on June 28, 2032. It is this writer’s position (backed by actual studies) that the Saturn/Uranus cycle and its quarter cycle phases are the most important of all geocosmic signatures correlating to the culmination of long-term financial market and political cycles. Continue reading…