NOTE: There will be no free weekly column released next week due to preparations for the February 19 “Annual Worldwide Webinar and Address on Forecast 2023 with Raymond Merriman.” See Announcements below for further details to register and ask questions. 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

President Biden boasted during his State of the Union address about cutting the deficit by a record $1.7 trillion. His putative conversion into a born-again deficit cutter is belied by this week’s Congressional Budget Office federal budget report for January, which shows the deficit has doubled in the first four months of this fiscal year. CBO reports that the budget deficit from October through January swelled to $522 billion from $259 billion in the same period last year. Receipts are tracking $43 billion lower than last year, mostly owing to reduced individual income taxes, while spending is running $220 billion higher. Wall Street Editorial Board, “Biden Tells a Deficit Fairy Tale,” February 10, 2023.

Half the lies they tell about me aren’t true. – Yogi Berra

And the Sun is not even into Pisces yet. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 13, 2023 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nosediving again on Friday following another Federal Reserve decision to hike interest rates. – Joe Toppe, “Dow Nosedives as Traders Continue Selloff on Fed Hike,” www.foxbusiness.com, December 16, 2022.

The Sun/Neptune square has a strong correlation to reversals in the DJIA within four trading days. Like all aspects with Neptune, this one too can correspond with hopes and wishes about the future of equity prices. However, if it corresponds with a high, or secondary high to the crest of December 1-2, it could lead to a sharp reversal down into and beyond the Jupiter/Uranus semi-square of December 23. – Last week’s column.

Sure enough, the U.S. and many other world stock indices topped out last week, December 13-14, and began a nosedive as the cosmos shifts from Neptune’s “irrational exuberance” to the more chaotic Jupiter/Uranus theme that culminates next week.

The DJIA, for instance, peaked at 34,712 on December 13, its highest level since April, and up 21% from its yearly low of 28,660 on October 13. By Friday, just three trading days lower, it had declined to a low of 32,654, a decline of over 2000 points and nearly 6%. This fits with our studies reported in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. Those studies showed a 78% rate of frequency to 4% or greater reversals in the DJIA within 4 trading days of the Sun/Neptune waning square. Monday will be the fourth day. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 19, 2022 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed’s market’s group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar to speed up settlement time in currency markets. – Lananh Nguyen, “Banking Giants and New York Fed Start 12-Week Digital Dollar Pilot,” Reuters, November 15, 2022. 

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday that “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.” He suggested that the appropriate zone for the federal funds rate could be in the 5% to 7% range, which is higher than what the market is pricing. – Tanaya Micheel and Alex Harring, “S&P 500 Closes Higher on Friday, but Ends Week with Losses,” www.cnbc.com, November 18, 2022.

The DJIA followed the lunar cycle to a ‘T’ last week with a new high on Tuesday and a low on Thursday, followed by another healthy rally on Friday. Tuesday was the day of Venus trine Jupiter (‘Law of Abundance’ signature) and Thursday was the Moon in Virgo headed to the Mars/Neptune square. The U.S. stock markets basically paused their prior gains since the primary cycle low of October 13, when Mars also squared Neptune. It’s doing it again this weekend, only this time Mars is retrograde and the market is closer to a new cycle high than low.  Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 21, 2022 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Inflation eased last month to the slowest pace since January but remained high, likely keeping Federal Reserve officials on course to start slowing the pace of interest-rate rises aimed at taming price pressures.The Labor Department on Thursday said that its consumer-price index increased 7.7% in October from the same month a year ago, down from 8.2% in September and June’s 9.1% rate, which was the highest in four decades.– Gwen Guilford and Nick Timiraos, “Easing Inflation Fuels Stock Surge,” Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2022.

This week’s investor run on the FTX crypto-currency exchange marks round two of the great crypto crackup, and so far the victims are consenting adults. Barring an unexpected spread to the banking system, this is another in the long line of easy-money manias turned to panic. “The FTX Crypto Fiasco,” Wall Street Journal Opinion Page, November 11, 2022. 

Where do you even start with a week like last week?

How about starting with Uranus? More specifically, let’s begin with the awareness that the last “translations” of key planets (Sun/Venus) to the departing Saturn/Uranus square of 2021-2022 happened November 5-11. That’s big. And the middle of that November 5-11 passage was Election Day, November 8, which just happened to also be the day of a powerful lunar eclipse. You expected something unexpected – upsets – would happen in the election and financial markets. They did. There was no huge red (Republican) wave that all the pundits were predicting, unless they knew astrology. There may not even be a clear cut majority in the Senate until a runoff in Georgia (again) takes place. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 14, 2022 ©

NOTE: U.S. markets are closed Monday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday 

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 led a mixed market Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back as investors wrapped the worst stretch since the pandemic amid inflation and recession fears. In commodities, oil fell 9.2% to $109.56 per barrel for the week. – “U.S. Stocks Close Our Worst Week Since the Pandemic,” www.foxbusiness.com, June 17, 2022.

The Fed has a classic dilemma. Inflation is mainly driven by either prices it cannot control (commodity related) or prices no one pays (owners’ equivalent rent, which is signaling a rising price of home ownership when most US homeowners pay a lower price than two years’ ago). Many prices the Fed can influence are in disinflation or outright deflation (over 3% of the CPI basket has year-on-year deflation). The Fed’s dilemma is how much more deflation to create in prices it can control, to offset the inflation in prices it cannot control. Dr. Paul Donovan, economist, “How Much Deflation?” UBS Morning Audio Comment, www.ubs.com, June 13, 2022. 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

This is getting pretty ugly. You get the feeling that Jamie Dimon and Elon Musk might be right when they stated in the last couple of weeks (and quoted here), regarding financial markets, something like: “Houston. Houston! We have a problem.” Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 20, 2022 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Broad-based strength in hiring in October signals the economy is shaking off the Covid-related slump of the third quarter and could grow faster than expected in the fourth quarter. Employment increased by 531,000 in the month. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. Revisions to prior months’ data also added a total of 235,000 more payrolls in August and September. – Patti Domm, “Strong Jobs Report Shows Economy Back on Track for Further Growth,” www.cnbc.com, November 5, 2021.

Stock markets were strong again last week, as several made new all-time highs into last week’s new Moon in Scorpio, opposite Uranus on November 4. These included the DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ in the U.S., and DAX and AEX in Europe. Other markets enjoyed nice rallies, albeit not to new all-time highs. The exceptions were in China, Hong Kong, India, and Brazil, which all fell to new 4-week lows. With Uranus, you seldom get uniformity. Its nature is more non-conforming and can be followed by abrupt movements.

The abruptness of Uranus was most notable in precious metals, especially Gold, which fell to a three-week low on Wednesday, and by Friday was making a new two-month high. This is in alignment with Mars in Scorpio now, and points to higher prices as long as last week’s low holds. Ethereum was also highlighted last week as it soared to a new all-time high, but Bitcoin did not. With Uranus in the cosmic limelight, and in the money sign of Taurus, we can expect some fireworks here too as we approach December 24, when the last exact waning square aspect with Saturn takes place. It just happens to be within a week of Venus turning retrograde as well, in conjunction to Pluto. Venus and Pluto rule stable currencies, as does Taurus, and Uranus rules cryptos, another form of currency, which many are trying to make “stable currencies.” With Uranus in Taurus, that may not be likely for a while. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 8, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

“Market narrative may thus turn more cautious, as concerns about peaking growth rates, delta variant and policy mistakes may prove headwinds, at a time when seasonality and technicals are unfavorable.” – Barclays equity strategists, “Dow Rebounds 200 Points But Closes out a Losing Week,” www.cnbc.com, August 20, 2021.

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake violently shook Haiti on Saturday morning, a devastating blow to an impoverished country reeling from a presidential assassination last month and still recovering from a disastrous quake more than 11 years ago. “Strong Earthquake Rocks Haiti, Killing Hundreds,” New York Times, August 18, 2021.

August 1–10 finds the Sun in Leo forming a T-square now to the Saturn/Uranus square, forming yet another fixed T-square. This implies more disturbances, unexpected events and disruptions, and possible difficulties caused by inclement weather (hurricanes, tornadoes, high winds, earthquakes, electrical failures, disruptions in the internet, and terrorist activities). Yet another round of unexpected events and disruptions follow when Uranus turns retrograde on August 19 (ET), followed by the Sun/Jupiter opposition the next day, August 20. Within a week of this period, Mother Nature may hemorrhage, as these are very powerful reversal signatures for global stock markets. – Raymond Merriman, Forecast 2021, page 160.

It was a typical Uranus atypical week for financial markets and global geopolitical miscues. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING AUGUST 23, 2021 ©

Note. Markets are closed Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday. 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

“Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money.” Elon Musk, who just purchased $1.5 billion of Bitcoin and drove the price up towards $50,000.

India’s government plans to introduce a bill in the country’s lower house that would ban private cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and create a national cryptocurrency. – Abigail Johnson Hess, “India Might Ban Private Cryptocurrencies Like Bitcoin,” January 30, 2021, www.cnbc.com.

It may be Mercury retrograde, but the Trickster is showing no sign that the bull market in stocks or Bitcoin is letting up. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 15, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

U.S. equity markets finished in record territory Friday after Congress paved the way for President Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 aid package and the jobs report showed a drop in the unemployment rate. Stocks rose despite a ho-hum jobs report with the addition of 49,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, according to the Labor Department. In Washington, the upper chamber of Congress early Friday morning voted 51-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote, to adopt a budget resolution for coronavirus relief. Later on Friday, the measure was passed by the House. – Jonathan Garber, “S&P 500, NASDAQ Hit Records as Congress Nears $1.9T Coronavirus Relief,” www.foxbusiness.com, February 5, 2021. 

Like Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog Day 2021, the “Trickster” – Mercury retrograde – was front and center last week. Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Tuesday, February 2, and returned to his burrow in the ground and thus forecasting six more weeks of winter. The “Trickster” also began its reversal through the cosmos last weekend, on January 30. Just before Mercury’s backwardation began, world equity markets experienced their most bearish technical ending to a week in since late October. That bearish setup on Friday, January 29, was abruptly negated on Monday, February 1, as world stock indices and other financial markets quickly reversed and returned to their former trends. It was like Groundhog Day all over again, just one day ahead of schedule. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 8, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

From the beginning, the intention each week was to try to answer these questions: What’s happening? What’s true? Are you seeing it too? Then we’re not alone! The key is to try to say clearly what you believe to be true, even if it makes people mad. Especially if they get mad – that means you’re over the target. This little space was in the thick of it. What did it feel like? Like what it is, a privilege, to be part of it, to get to say what you see, especially in this of all years. – Peggy Noonan, “A Look Back at the Pandemic Year,” Wall Street Journal, December 26-27, 2020.

Peggy Noonan’s comments above on celebrating 20 years of writing her weekly column in the Wall Street Journal reflects my own approach to writing this column, which started 22 years ago.

The year 2020 started out with a bang and ended with a bang, with a big bang along the way. That is, the year 2020 started with new all-time or multi-year highs in several world stock indices. Then came the pandemic and all indices collapsed 30-45%, except China, whose stock market only dropped 15%. And now, in the last week of that eventful year that will always be remembered for the world-wide pandemic, many stock indices closed out at record or multi-year highs – but not in China. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 4, 2021 ©