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China’s economy has kicked off the year of the rabbit with a bounce worthy of its sprightly zodiac avatar. That raises the probability of stronger global growth this year, and higher oil prices, too—although the biggest effects are likely to show up in the second half of 2023. – Nathaniel Taplin, “China’s Post-Covid Bounce Has Arrived,” Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2023.

Silvergate Capital, one of the crypto market’s top banks, said that recent events leave it at risk of being “less than well-capitalized” and that it is evaluating the effect those events have on its ability to continue as a going concern. Shares of Silvergate were off 25% in after-hours trading. – Charley Grant, “Silvergate Stock Drops After Filing Raises Questions About Its Ability to Stay in Business,” March 2, 2023, Wall Street Journal. 

Last week witnessed multi-week and even multi-month lows in many of the world’s stock indices. But then many of those same markets turned sharply higher right afterwards, into the end of the week, signaling that a new primary cycle may be underway. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MARCH 6, 2023 ©

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The U.S. housing market suffered the biggest drop in value since 2008 as home prices came crashing down. According to a new report from real estate brokerage firm Redfin, the total value of U.S. homes tumbled from a record high of $47.7 trillion in June 2022 to $45.3 trillion at the end of the year — a decline of $2.3 trillion, or 4.9%. It marks the biggest drop in percentage terms since the 2008 financial crisis, when home values plunged by 5.8% from June to December.  – Megan Henney, “US housing market sees $2.3T drop in value, biggest since 2008,” www.foxbusiness.com/ February 24, 2023.

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to raise interest rates considerably higher, causing a recession, according to a research paper released Friday. Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin is among the authors of the white paper that examines the history of central bank efforts to create disinflation. – Jeff Cox, “Fed can’t tame inflation without ‘significantly’ more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says,” www.cnbc.com, February 24, 2023 

And now the Sun is into Pisces. And so is Neptune, with Saturn headed there too next week.

What’s so special about the season of Pisces? Well, it is the sign of hopes and wishes, romance and infatuation. It often coincides with stock market euphoria. But when the hopes and wishes are dashed, traders (and romantics) fall out of love with their illusions about reality (like the interest rate future), and instead, panic and hysteria can set in. That’s why we often find the month of Pisces can contain large price movements and major reversals in equities and other financial markets. It is looking like that may be the case again this year, perfectly in alignment with the near-term forecast given in last week’s annual webinar.   Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 27, 2023 ©

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The employment picture started off 2023 on a stunningly strong note, with nonfarm payrolls posting their biggest gain since July 2022. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 for January, above the Dow Jones estimate of 187,000 and December’s gain of 260,000, according to a Labor Department report Friday. “ The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May 1969. The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.4%. – Jeff Cox, “Jobs Report Show an Increase of 517,000 in January, Crushing Estimates as Unemployment Rate Hit 53-year Low,” February 3, 2023, www.cnbc.com.

The Federal Reserve nudged up short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage point and signaled it was on track to do so again at its meeting next month while officials consider whether and when to pause increases late this spring.  “We’re talking about a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. – Nick Timiraos, “Fed Slows Its Tightening With Quarter-Point Interest Rate Hike,” Feb 1, 2023, Wall Street Journal.

Punxsutawney Phil, the revered groundhog of Groundhog Day fame, saw his shadow on February 2. It means we will have six more weeks of winter. But don’t tell that to the stock market, which saw the S&P and NASDAQ soar well above their previous primary cycle highs of August 16. In an interesting twist, the DJIA could not exceed its current cycle high of December 1, or even its half-primary cycle high of January 13, after it had previously rallied above its August 16 high back in November. On Friday, February 3, the S&P and NASDAQ pulled back sharply, along with the DJIA. So, for Punxsutawney Phil, seeing his shadow on a sunny day, was so far the end of the stock market rally in 2023, and a set up for a case of intermarket bearish divergence in a geocosmic critical reversal date time zone. Since we are market timers, this is important.

The performance was similar in Gold and Silver. After soaring to 1975 on Thursday morning, February 2, its highest mark in several months,  Gold plunged below 1875 the next day, a loss of $100. Silver made a triple top at 24.75 on Thursday, February 2 but it was still below its most recent cycle high of 24.77 on January 3. But after Phil’s shadow appeared, Silver lost its shine and was down to 22.32 on Friday, a drop of over 2.40. That’s huge, but it fits with the transits underway now. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 6, 2023 ©

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The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2.9% annual rate last quarter but entered this year with less momentum as rising interest rates and still-high inflation weighed on demand. The October-to-December period capped a year of economic slowdown with growth of 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with a year earlier, down sharply from 5.7% growth in 2021. – Sarah Chaney Cambon “U.S. Economy Grows at Slower Pace,” Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2023.

The U.S. took action Thursday against Russian private military group Wagner Group, designating it as a significant transnational criminal organization over its actions in combat operations in Ukraine on behalf of President Vladimir Putin. – Mengqi Sun, “Wagner Group Designated by U.S. as Transnational Criminal Group,” Wall Street Journal, Jan 26, 2023.

Most world stock indices performed very well last week. Several made new highs for this year. Some even took out their highs of December, while others simply re-tested their highs made during the triple planetary stations of January 12-22. Thus, the test for the underlying primary trend continues to be a battle between the bulls and the bears. The bullish case is in need of taking out the highs of mid-December. The bearish case requires resistance in pushing back before that ceiling gives in. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 30, 2023 ©

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Retail spending fell in December at the sharpest pace of 2022, marking a dismal end to the holiday shopping season as rising interest rates, still-high inflation and concerns about a slowing economy pinched American consumers. Sales were also revised lower in November and have fallen three of the past four months. ­– Harriet Torry, “U.S. Retail Sales Fell 1.1% in December,” Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2023.

It was another very good week for Gold and Bitcoin. Each continued the rallies they began in October-November, near the time that Mars turned retrograde on October 31. All have rallied to their highest levels since then as Mars turned direct last week, along with Mercury. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 23, 2023 ©

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U.S. inflation eased in December for the sixth straight month following a mid-2022 peak as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates and the economy showed signs of cooling. The consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 6.5% last month from a year earlier, down from 7.1% in November and well below a 9.1% peak in June. –  Gwenn Guilford, “U.S. Inflation Slowed for Sixth Straight Month in December,” Wall Street Journal, Jan 12, 2023.

The federal government ran an $85 billion deficit in December, a wider shortfall than in the same month a year earlier, as the government’s debt burden nears its legal limit.  The federal deficit … widened by 12% in the first few months of the fiscal year that began in October as rising interest rates increase borrowing costs for the government. The government posted a record deficit for the month of November in 2022. The Treasury has spent $57 billion more, a 37% increase, on paying for the government’s debt so far this fiscal year than it did in the same period a year earlier, the largest source of higher government spending. The federal government is approaching the roughly $31.4 trillion limit on borrowing set by Congress. As of Tuesday, the government has borrowed roughly $31.3 trillion. – Andrew Duehren, “Federal Deficit Widened to $85 Billion in December,” Wall Street Journal, Jan 12, 2023.

In an act of gleeful revenge against all bearish pundits, Mars turning direct late last week coincided with strong rallies in several major world stock indices. The Trickster, Mercury retrograde, who is also on the loose through January 18, couldn’t be happier, because this may be his chance to enact another one of his famous fake outs. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 16, 2023 ©

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Payroll growth decelerated in December but was still better than expected, a sign that the labor market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve tries to slow economic growth. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 for the month, above the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, 0.2 percentage point below the expectation. Wage growth was less than expected in an indication that inflation pressures could be weakening. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and increased 4.6% from a year ago. – Jeff Cox, Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 223,000 in December, as Strong Jobs Market Tops Expectations,” www.cnbc.com, January 6, 2023. 

As the first week of the new year ends, it appears the Trickster is well into his natural element of sudden short-term reversals. Stock indices looked pressured, but on Friday, the U.S. payroll reports came out weak, as was expected, but the gains in wages were considerably less than expected. On the news, investors saw little reason for the Fed to stay so hawkish on interest rates related to rising inflation, so the stock market took off with the DJIA closing up 700 points, and at its highest level since the Jupiter/Uranus semi-square low of December 22-23. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 9, 2023 ©

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That’s a wrap for 2022. Stocks closed out the year with a whimper. All three major indexes posted modest losses Friday, capping their worst year since 2008. The S&P 500 ended the year down 19%. “U.S. Stocks Close Out Worst Year Since 2008,” www.wsj.com, December 30, 2022. 

The Biden administration is planning to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a senior administration official said Friday, marking the end to the massive supply releases that the White House ordered to tame the sharp price spikes earlier this year… The administration had announced in October it would set up a process to purchase oil from companies to refill the SPR at a price of $67 to $72 a barrel. – Ben Lefebvre, “Biden Administration Set to Start Refilling Oil Reserve,” Dec 16, 2022, www.politico.com. 

The level of the SPR — an emergency stockpile of crude oil managed by the Department of Energy (DOE) — declined to 375.1 million barrels last week, marking the first time it has fallen below 378 million barrels since December 1983, according to the Energy Information Administration. Prior to last week, the reserve’s lowest level since 1983 was recorded on Dec. 30, 1983, when it hit 378.3 million barrels. – Thomas Catenacci, “US Emergency Oil Stockpiles Drop to Lowest Level Since 1983,” Dec 28, 2022, www.foxbusiness.com.

We are back. And so is Mercury retrograde, otherwise known as “The Trickster.” Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 2, 2023 ©

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The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates elevated through 2023, dashing Wall Street’s hopes for rate cuts in the second half of 2023 and almost guaranteeing a recession. – Megan Henney, “Fed To Keep Interest Rates High All Next year, Making a Recession Very Likely: Survey,” December 9, 2022, www.foxbusiness.com.

“When Donald Trump won in 2016, he said we were going to get so tired of winning we would ask him to stop winning so much,” Christie told a gathering of Republican governors, noting the party lost House seats in 2018, the White House in 2020 and winnable Senate races in 2022. “I’m tired of losing,” Christie added. – Brett Samuels, ”GOP Tired of Losing,” The Hill, November 18, 2022.

Last week’s financial markets were a tug of war between the aggressive symbolism of a full Moon conjunct Mars (it was even an occultation, a lunar eclipse of Mars) on December 7-8, caught between the passivity inclination of Neptune turning direct on December 3, squared by Venus on December 4, and squared by the Sun on December 14. In other words, markets wanted to do something – go somewhere – but they didn’t quite know what or where. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 12, 2022 ©

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Job growth was much better than expected in November despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the labor market and tackle inflation. Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%. In another blow to the Fed’s anti-inflation efforts, average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the Dow Jones estimate. Wages were up 5.1% on a year-over-year basis, also well above the 4.6% expectation. – Jeff Cox, “Payrolls and Wages Blow Past Expectations,” www.cnbc.com, December 2, 2022.

Yields on longer-term U.S. Treasurys have fallen further below those on short-term bonds than at any time in decades, a sign that investors think the Federal Reserve is close to winning its inflation battle regardless of the cost to economic activity. A scenario in which short-term yields exceed long-term yields is known on Wall Street as an inverted yield curve and is often seen as a red flag that a recession is looming. – Sam Goldfarb, “Treasury Yield Curve Inverts to Deepest Level Since 1981,” Wall Street Journal, November 30, 2022.

The holiday joy continued for world equity markets after Fed Chair Powell’s comments on Wednesday that rate hikes won’t end, but may ease the pace of their ascent. On that news, most of the world stock indices made new cycle highs on Thursday-Friday, December 1-2, and in some cases they exceeded the highs of their previous primary cycles made in mid-August. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 5, 2022 ©