REVIEW AND PREVIEW
U.S. stocks fell Friday with the S&P 500 index on track for its worst week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, suggesting the three-month rally may be coming to an end. “U.S. Stocks Fall to Cap Off Worst Week Since March,” June 23, 2023, www.marketwatch.com.
Bitcoin hit its highest level in a year amid renewed fervor for digital assets despite a slew of challenges for the industry. – Vildana Haljic, “Bitcoin Hits Highest in a Year as Crypto Rebounds From Scandals,” June 23, 2023, Yahoo Finance, www.yahoo.com.
What an exciting, strange, and tragic week that just ended. And it all started right after Saturn turned retrograde and the New Moon in Gemini squared Neptune the previous weekend, June 16-19, an MMA two-star geocosmic critical reversal date.
It was exciting because Bitcoin started another impressive rally that thrust this “royalty” of the digital currency era to new yearly highs, when just seven months ago, it was engulfed in a scandal and many were forecasting its imminent demise. Neptune rules scandals. It was strange because Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary militia that has been waging the heaviest brunt of the Russian war on Ukraine, lashed out at Russian military leaders, claiming that they launched strikes on his training camps. He even accused the Russian Armed Forces Chief of Staff of leading Russia into war under a false narrative. False narrative – shades of Neptune! It was tragic (Saturn rules loss) because the Titan submersible was on a mission to visit the legendary (Saturn) Titanic luxury cruise liner that sunk (Neptune) over 100 years ago. It disappeared (Neptune), and the lives of all those on board appear to have perished (Saturn with Pluto moving back into Saturn’s ruling sign of Capricorn).
It was also a week of losses for most of the world’s equity markets, many of which suffered their worst weekly losses since March. Gold and Silver also fell to new multi-week lows, while Crude Oil came close to doing the same. On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar/Yen, Soybeans, and Bitcoin soared to new multi-week highs. Strange. As the Dollar rallied against the Yen, it fell against the Euro. Europe is raising rates, while parts of Asia are lowering rates. It will be most interesting to see what happens when Venus turns retrograde on July 22, a period that often corresponds to major policy changes by various central banks of the world. How much more atypical can the world of finances get?
SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS
In the search for the submersible this week Britain’s Telegraph quoted retired Rear Adm. Chris Parry of the Royal Navy. Why, he wondered, would anyone get into a “dodgy piece of technology” like the submersible? “It is fundamentally dangerous, there was no backup plan, it’s experimental, and I’m afraid to say there’s an element of hubris if you want to go down and do that.” Everyone thinks he’s unsinkable. – Peggy Noonan, “Why the Titanic Keeps Drawing Us In,” Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2023.
The week between Saturn and Neptune retrograde (June 17 and 30) had a chilling effect related to the themes of both planets. Saturn can coincide with a time of loss. It is in Pisces, which is associated with the sea. Neptune rules Pisces and is the god of the seas. Furthermore, with Neptune, there is often a lack of accountability and attention to detail that can cause problems later on. Together, these dynamics can portend a time of sorrow and grief over a tragic loss, such as the world sadly witnessed last week. It appears all passengers on the Titan submersible destined to view the ruins of the legendary Titanic vessel have perished due to faulty technology. It seems like a curse of the Titanic.
It was also a depressing week for global stock indices. Last week’s column pointed to the possibility of a pullback from a high – may be major – from a high related to Saturn turning retrograde. This coming week is equally important as two powerful Level 1 geocosmic signatures (strongest correlation to market reversals) take place. The first is the dramatic Mars entering into a waxing (opening) square to the dramatic Uranus on Monday, June 26, followed by Neptune turning retrograde on June 30. The first aspect is very important because it also activates the Mercury/Pluto square in the NYSE chart (May 17, 1792), all within one degree of fixed signs, creating a fixed T-square. In the past, this type of set up has often been observed as the end of a sharp pullback in equity prices, and often Gold prices as well. This setup and its correlation to past market behavior appear to be repeating, which once again demonstrates the value of financial astrology as a market timing tool in one’s trading plan.
The second signature of great importance is Neptune turning retrograde in its ruling sign of Pisces on June 30. With an orb of ten trading days, this is one of the most consistent correlations to primary cycles (lows or highs) in global stock markets, especially the DJIA. Once again, it is also the case with Gold, which has been observed to start impressive rallies during the two weeks that follow a low prior to, or into, this time frame. Therefore this has the potential to be an important turning point in both equity and precious metals markets. Let’s see if they repeat their past behaviors this week or next.
LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS
According to Charles Schwab, this year’s survey of 1,000 respondents revealed … that the 48% of Americans who feel wealthy today have an average net worth of $560,000, compared to the $2.2 million they say it takes to be considered wealthy. The survey shows about two-thirds of Americans (62%) say being able to enjoy healthy relationships with loved ones better describes wealth than having a lot of money. And seven in 10 say wealth is more about not having to stress over money than having more of it. – Erica Lamberg, “Do You Think You’re Rich?” www.foxbusiness.com, June 18, 2024.
“… never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.” Adolph Hitler’s primary rules, Mein Kampf, www.JewishVirtualLibrary.org.
Does this sound like anyone we know? Perhaps a politician or world leader? But basta! I have other ideas I want to discuss this week that indirectly relate to some of these themes in the world of trading.
Last week was the summer solstice (June 21) and you know what that means. It is the start of the seasonal sign of Cancer. Cancer is a water sign. Water signs highlight emotions. Hence this brings us into a period when emotions tend to overrule the mind. This can be problematic for those who attempt to trade with little or no experience, or who enter trades without a sense of what to do when the trade does not go according to expectations. Therefore, this is a good time to discuss the psychology of trading and the pitfalls that arise from making trading decisions based on emotions rather than objective data analysis. Strangely enough, in my experience, it is the Cancer sun sign traders who seem to understand this far better than most traders born under other sun signs.
A basic rule in trading (and life) to understand is this: if the trade isn’t going as expected, it’s doing the opposite or following an alternate path. If you intend to be a successful trader, you need to know what the alternate path is and have a trading plan that goes with it. If a market takes an alternate path, you have three choices: 1) adjust and take the alternate path that is unfolding, 2) cut your losses and exit the trade, or 3) stay with the trade and hope. The last option is the most dangerous because it is based on emotions and not an objective analysis of data.
If one stays with a trade that continues to go against the plan or starts to follow an alternate scenario, one can quickly get lost and confused. Eventually, this will lead to panic and hysteria. A small loss becomes a large loss. Unfortunately, this is the experience of most novices when they begin trading. It is as if they are learning to swim in deep water, well above their head. They abandon everything they have learned up until that point, and instead of applying the exit strategy associated with the plan, they become emotional and confused. They may panic and look for someone to blame for their inability to follow a strategy or adjust to an alternate strategy that conforms to what the market is actually doing.
It is a simple rule, really. Do not stay with a position that goes against the trend and is not working out. Cut your losses, clear your mind, and get out of the emotional state akin to drowning, being “in over your head.” Not every trade is going to work out as you hope.
On another related matter: when someone states that astrology doesn’t work because “financial astrologers” say a market can go up, and if it doesn’t go up, then it can go down (blah blah blah), and therefore what use is it. That person is not citing a failure of astrology but rather their own failure to understand how astrology works, how trading works, and the psychology behind trading. Astrology is simply a timing tool – and a reliably powerful one at that – for identifying periods of high-probability market reversals. It doesn’t predict far ahead of time if an astrologically-highlighted period will be a market high or low, but rather that it will likely be a reversal from either a cycle high or low. That doesn’t invalidate astrology’s value in the least. When used in combination with other market timing tools, astrology can provide a bias as to whether it will be a high or a low as the time approaches. This is even more so the case when one applies technical and trend analysis studies – the latter of which is invaluable in order to become a successful trader. There is a reason why “The Trend is Your Friend.” There is also a reason why the best risk/reward setups are also going against the trend and, therefore, the riskiest and must be balanced with sound money management discipline. Sometimes it is worth the risk to take a trade that has a huge reward-to-risk ratio, depending on where a market is in its cycle. But that is a topic for another day.
Additionally, just as important as timing market reversals (via astrology) is the ability to manage emotions and exhibit the discipline to 1) create a trading plan based on a preferred outlook, 2) have an alternate plan that takes into account an alternate scenario, and 3) the mental facility to react without being emotionally attached to a plan (or position) when is not working out, for that is the downfall of every would-be trader.
This is the lesson of Cancer, whether in trading or life. Manage your emotions. Don’t let them manage you. Be careful of attachment to a course of action to the point that you can’t emotionally let go for FOMO (fear of missing out), for it will feel like you are drowning in water that is over your head. Know where the sea floor is and keep your head above the water line. Always.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
NOTE 1: The Annual Mid-Year 2023 Market Update Webinar with Raymond Merriman and MMA Analysts Team.
Save the Date! July 16, 2023, Starts at 12 PM EDT which is 5:00 PM GMT, 6:00 PM CET. This broadcast will address themes from this year’s Forecast 2023 Book, with updates on the U.S. stock market, Gold, and Bitcoin by Ray; Crude Oil, T-Notes and Euro by Gianni Di Poce; Copper by Matthieu Kaiser; and Soybeans by Wyatt Fellows. Cost is $55.00, and includes access to the live presentation via Zoom, the slides of the presentation, plus the video recording of the live event 24 hours after the presentation. Questions will be answered that are submitted one week before the event if they are deemed of interest to the overall audience. If you are unable to attend live, the video recording will be available the following day. To register, click here.
NOTE 2: MMTA3 Course Three: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles in Financial Markets will begin on Saturday, June 24 at 12 PM EDT. This online course will be conducted over six Saturday sessions lasting 2.5 hours each, via Zoom. Instructors will be Raymond Merriman and Gianni Di Poce.
This 6-week course will cover the role of Transiting Aspects and Ingresses to trading cycles (primary, half-primary, major, and shorter trading cycles) in financial markets. With this course, one will learn to identify time bands that historically have coincided with the crests and troughs of the primary cycle and its phases and how to determine CRDs (Critical Reversal Dates). Strategies will be discussed for trading them based on cycle studies as well as geocosmic correlations to strength and consistency of the reversals historically. Every class will include a discussion of how these cycles and geocosmics pertain to the current and next week’s various markets (such as stock indices, Gold, Silver, Treasuries, Euro currency, and Bitcoin), with the goal of identifying when the next excellent trading opportunities are most likely to take place.
Although this course is part of the overall Two-Year MMTA3 Program, it may be taken as a stand-alone course for up to ten non-MMTA3 students who wish to learn this set of material.
The cost for this course is $2500 and includes a 90-page workbook, access to all live classes, video recordings of the classes, and slides of the class presentations. For further information on this course, contact MMA at 1-248-626-3034 or by email at customerservice@mmacycles.com.
NOTE 3: THE JUNE ISSUE OF THE MMA Monthly Cycles Report Plus+, edited by Pouyan Zolfagharnia, will be issued this week. This market letter has become a very popular addition to the MMA Cycles Report (less technical, more visual, high-quality analysis and update on MMA Cycles Report markets). The mid-month addendum to the MMA Cycles report has stunning graphics and charts (people love it!) and is very readable. It contains more illustrations and references to geocosmics than most MMA Cycles reports and is only available for subscription to those who also subscribe to the MMA Monthly Cycles Report. If you wish to try this month’s addendum, along with the latest issue of the MMA Monthly Cycles Report, sign up online at the link above. The cost for a monthly copy of both reports is $55. That will give you both the most recent June copy of the MMA Cycles Report and the June MMA Cycles Report Plus+ addendum coming out this week. For further information and ordering instructions, please click here.
NOTE 4: The MMA Monthly Grain Report by MMTA Graduate Wyatt Fellows will also be issued this week, on Wednesday, June 28. This is an exceptional report by a top MMTA graduate who is also the owner of a large family farm operation. Wyatt knows the farming business and grain markets from both a cyclical and fundamental point of view. This report is an in-depth look at long-and short-term cycles in Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Cotton. The MMA Monthly Grain Report has been extremely accurate in its first editions that began in January. If you trade grains or are in the farming business and wish for accurate timing and understanding of when to hedge your crop, this report is not to be missed! To order, click here.
NOTE 5: The MMA Monthly ETF Report was issued last week. Many have asked about a monthly report on Bitcoin, and the Monthly ETF Report does this via BITO, the ETF on Bitcoin. Written by MMA market analyst Gianni Di Poce, the ETF is a monthly newsletter that everyone trading ETFs is encouraged to read, especially those that seek less risky trading venues than futures. This report covers 8 ETFs on a monthly basis for readers. The ETFs include: SPY (S&P 500), GDX (gold miners), BITO (Bitcoin), TLT (+20-year Treasuries), USO (Crude Oil), XLV (healthcare), XLK (technology), and XHB (homebuilders). This is a report that was requested by popular demand and Gianni’s insights and strategies are excellent. For further information, click here.
NOTE 6: SUBSCRIBE TO MMA’S WEEKLY YouTube show, Geocosmic Week in Review and Look Ahead. Each 5-15 minute FREE episode reviews market activity of the past week and offer a preview of the geocosmic signatures in effect for the next week and beyond. You may subscribe to MMA’s YouTube Channel today at no cost and get alerted when a new weekly episode is released! To view this week’s MMA YouTube episode, click here.
NOTE 7: Now you can listen to a podcast or broadcast of this weekly column by Thomas Miller. The Free Weekly Forecast Podcast is now available on Saturday. Just follow Merriman Market Analyst Spotify to listen to all our episodes. New Podcast episodes will be released every weekend. This is a FREE service and available to everyone. Checkout out our Podcasts on Spotify, MMA- Merriman Market Analyst Podcast and on YouTube, Merriman Market Analyst. It makes for great listening!
EVENTS
JULY 16: 12:00 PM EDT: The Annual Mid-Year 2023 Market Update Webinar with Raymond Merriman and MMA Analysts Team. (See Note 1 above.)
Save the Date! Starts at 12 PM EDT, which is 5:00 PM GMT, 6:00 PM CET. It will be very early in the morning in Australia, Beijing and Tokyo. In the comfort of your own home or office, you can tune into MMA’s annual Mid-Year Financial Markets Update Webinar. This broadcast will address themes from this year’s Forecast 2023 Book, with updates on the U.S. stock market, Gold, and Bitcoin by Ray, Crude Oil, T-Notes and Euro by Gianni Di Poce, Copper by Matthieu Kaiser, and Soybeans by Wyatt Fellows. Cost is $55.00, and includes access to the live presentation via Zoom, the slides of the presentation, plus the video recording of the live event 24 hours after the presentation. Questions will be answered that are submitted one week before the event if they are deemed of interest to the overall audience. If you are unable to attend live, the video recording will be available the following day. To register, click here.
Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to forecast the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will often cite what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures may affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from the perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and their potential effect on financial markets.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers of this column assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone’s trading or investment decisions. Readers of this report should understand that commodity futures and options trading are considered high risk.