MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JULY 19, 2021 ©

NOTE: I will be on vacation next week, so there will be no weekly column issued for July 26. We will likely post a chapter from the Forecast 2021 book. 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Congress is barreling toward a summer battle over spending levels as Democrats rush to craft a pair of spending bills while simultaneously addressing the debt ceiling to keep the U.S. from defaulting on its financial obligations… While testifying before Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged lawmakers to address the looming debt ceiling. “Defaulting on the national debt should be regarded as unthinkable. Failing to increase the debt limit would have absolutely catastrophic economic consequences,” Yellen said. – Megan Henney, “What Is the Debt Ceiling?” www.foxbusiness.com, July 13, 2021.

Except that the U.S. came very close to doing just that (Janet Yellen quote above) in 2010, which led to the first downgrade of the U.S. credit rating in history. That just happened to be in the previous quarter cycle phase of the 45-year Saturn/Uranus cycle. The quarter cycle happens about every 11.25 years. Here we are again, February 17-December 24, 2021. The quarter cycle before that was interesting too. It was in 1999-2000, coincident with an all-time high in the U.S. stock market that was followed by the dot-com bubble burst and another serious  recession. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JULY 12, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

The Mars/Venus T-square to Saturn and Uranus coincided with a wild ride last week, as expected. Global equity markets got whacked until Friday’s recovery in the U.S. wiped all of its losses in just one day and ended up making a new cycle high. With Uranus, the keywords for financial markets are erratic, disruptive, sudden, and unexpected. Uranus is the higher octave of Mercury, and like the Trickster, its momentum can change abruptly. The major difference is that with Uranus, the price swings are usually much steeper than those exhibited under Mercury retrograde. Mercury might fall off a hill. Uranus falls off a cliff. Mercury might land on a trampoline and bounce halfway back up. Uranus will be more like a bungee cord that falls harder and then bounces all the way back up – and more. Mercury might be miscommunication and misunderstanding. Uranus is more of a revolt and revolution. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JULY 5, 2021 ©

NOTE: Financial markets are closed in the U.S. on Monday, July 5, in observance of the Independence Day holiday. 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Nonfarm payrolls increased 850,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 706,000 and better than the upwardly revised 583,000 in May. The unemployment rate, however, rose to 5.9% against the 5.6% expectation. The jobless rate increase came even though the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.6%. A separate figure that accounts for discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell sharply to 9.8%, with the 0.4 percentage point decline putting the so-called real unemployment rate below 10% for the first time since March 2020. Jeff Cox, “U.S. Adds 850,000 Jobs in June, Better than Expected,” www.cnbc.com, July 2, 2021.

This week should be a strong test for the U.S. and other global stock indices that have been rising. Of most importance is the transit of Mars in Leo, in opposition to Saturn in Aquarius and square to Uranus in Taurus. The first signature occurred late last week, on July 1. It has a whopping 82% historical correlation to primary cycle (crests or troughs) within 11 trading days. The Mars/Uranus square will occur July 4 and also has a powerful 76% correlation to primary cycles within 9 trading days. With Uranus, you often get sudden, unforeseen, reversals. With Saturn, there is usually an overabundance of stress and frustration. Mars is a fast-moving planet that packs a powerful punch to any event or attitude that is willing to act aggressively. In market-speak, this translates into days of high volume activity. Price are vulnerable to large swings in short periods of time. Often an event occurs, or an unexpected announcement is made that could drive traders to take aggressive action. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 28, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

The May personal consumption expenditures price index, an important inflation gauge for policymakers, rose 3.4% from a year ago, in line with Wall Street estimates. That was the biggest increase since 1992 and reflective of ongoing price pressures. – Jeff Cox, “Key Inflation Indicator Posts Biggest Year-Over-Year Gain in Nearly Three Decades,” June 25, 2021, www.cnbc.com.

It was the week of three planetary stations. That’s a big deal in Financial Astrology’s role as a market timing tool. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 21, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Stocks fell on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst weekly loss since October, as traders worried the Federal Reserve could start raising rates sooner than expected…. the Fed on Wednesday added two rate hikes to its 2023 forecast and increased its inflation projection for the year, putting pressure on stock prices. – Yun Li and Tamaya Macheel, “Dow Falls More Than 500 Points to Close Out Its Worst Week Since October,” www.cnbc.com, June 18, 2021.

It feels like something just shifted. It wouldn’t be surprising given that we just finished the second passage of Saturn square Uranus, which is symbolic of a giant shift. Did the earth just wobble?

With the Fed’s surprise announcement last Wednesday, June 16, and the resultant decline in many financial and commodity markets, it is very tempting to think an important high is in with stocks. It fits well with the study of cycles, where the time band for a 16-month cycle low is in effect for many global stock indices. It also fits very well with geocosmic studies, as last week witnessed the second passage of the Saturn/Uranus waning square on June 14. A number of stock indices put in new all-time highs around that geocosmic event last week, only to see much of their gains wiped out by Friday’s close. We are finally seeing the volatility suggested by the Saturn/Uranus square. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 14, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Consumer prices for May accelerated at their fastest pace in nearly 13 years as inflation pressures continued to build in the U.S. economy. The consumer price index, which represents a basket including food, energy, groceries, housing costs and sales across a spectrum of goods, rose 5% from a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a gain of 4.7%. The reading represented the biggest CPI gain since the 5.3% increase in August 2008, just before the financial crisis sent the U.S. spiraling into the worst recession since the Great Depression. – Jeff Cox, “Consumer Prices Jump 5% in May, Fastest Pace Since the Summer of 2008,” www.cnbc.com, June 10, 2021.

The Fed announced a new policy doctrine almost a year ago (that) it would no longer consider lags when making monetary policy, forsaking the policy of “pre-emption.” (The) Fed believe the party is just getting started and won’t remove the punchbowl until the fun is in full swing and the neighbors know it. The Fed’s new doctrine is a catalyst for heightened concern… The resulting U.S. Dollar weakness poses a host of dangers, including inflation risks… The scale of government spending and scope of government activity are unprecedented… The Fed should change its policy regime. It should not tolerate Fed-financed fiscal expansion. – Kevin Warsh (former member of the Federal Reserve Board), “The Fed’s Risky Fill-the- Punch-Bowl-Strategy,” Wall Street Journal, June 8, 2021.

We are right in the middle of Mercury retrograde and the second (of three) passage of the powerful Saturn/Uranus waning square, arguably the dominant and most important geocosmic event of 2021. World equity markets continue to exhibit cases of intermarket bearish divergence, which is typical of Mercury retrograde. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JUNE 7, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Job creation disappointed again in May, with nonfarm payrolls up what normally would be considered a solid 559,000 but still short of lofty expectations, the Labor Department reported Friday. Payrolls were expected to increase by 671,000.– Jeff Cox, “Job Creation Accelerated in May but is Still Below Lofty Expectations,” www.cnbc.com, June 4, 2021.

President Biden painted a rosy picture of America’s economic rebound and claimed he beats all other presidents for job creation during their first three months in office. Biden, indeed, created the most jobs in his first three months than any other president — about 1.5 million — but that’s partly because the U.S. population is larger than in the past. When calculated as a percentage of the workforce, job growth under President Jimmy Carter increased more quickly from February through April 1977 than the same three months this year. –Marisa Schultz, “Biden Touts ‘Fastest Job Creation’ of any President in US History,”  www.foxbusiness.com, May 28, 2021.

Here we are again. The last instance of Saturn in waning square to Uranus was 45 years ago, in 1976-1977. We have pointed out the similarities between Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter, who was elected President in 1976 and started his term in January 1977. Correspondences exist in personality, correlations to their election-year cycles and geocosmics, and now with similar economic results after their first three months in office. You may also remember what happened afterwards. 1976-77 was the beginning of the huge surge in inflation that eventually led to stagflation for much of the next decade. Once again, our future may be held hostage to history, as noted by the correlation of planetary cycles to cycles in human activity. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 31, 2021 ©

PLEASE  NOTE: U.S. markets are closed on Monday, May 31, for the Memorial Day holiday 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

U.S. equity markets flirted with record highs Friday as President Biden unveiled his $6 trillion budget proposal. Biden’s proposed budget would fund massive social programs. It would result in a $1.8 trillion deficit. Elsewhere in the economy, core personal consumption expenditures, which exclude food and energy, jumped 0.7% month over month and 3.1% annually, which was the biggest reading in at least 28 years. The 1.2 percentage point annual increase from March was the largest since recordkeeping began in 1960. – Jonathan Garber, “Stocks Rally Despite Inflation Uptick, Biden’s $6T Budget,  www.foxbusiness.com, May 28, 2021.

The Jupiter-in-Pisces spending blowout begins to take shape now and investors still love the idea. And why not? More money in the economy means more money to spend on stocks – and commodities, Bitcoin, and houses. Inflating assets is one of the ways the government and central banks believe that debt levels can eventually be contained, and we should know if that belief is true or not in the next three years as Pluto rounds out its 15-year trek through Capricorn. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 17, 2021 ©

PLEASE  NOTE: There will be no column written next week due to preparation for Saturday’s mid-year FORECAST 2021 and Financial Markets update. See “Announcements” below for information.

 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

The Labor Department reported its consumer price index jumped 4.2% in April from a year earlier. The data sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to their steepest 3-day decline in nearly seven months. – Gwynn Guilford, “Inflation Surge Rattles Markets,” Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2021.

Last week was a classic mutable-sign and ingress performance for world stock indices.

Global indices opened up strong last week, with both the DJIA and S&P making new all-time highs (ATH) in the U.S., but the NASDAQ fell short once again. The new all-time highs didn’t last long. By  Wednesday, the DJIA had plummeted 1536 points and tested its 45-day moving average for the first time since its primary cycle low of March 4. The S&P fell more, nearly 5%, in those two days, and broke below the 45-day MA. The NASDAQ Composite never made a new all-time high. Its ATH remained at 14,217 on April 29, within the allowable three-day orb of our three-star critical reversal date (CRD) of April 26. By Wednesday, May 12, with the Moon in Gemini (mutable) and Jupiter spending its last day in Aquarius before entering Pisces (mutable), it was testing 13,000, down 8.5% from its ATH. Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING MAY 10, 2021 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW 

Employers adding a measly 266,000 new jobs – sharply missing Wall Street’s expectations – amid a growing shortage of available workers. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.1% — while it’s still well below the April 2020 peak of 14.7%, it’s about twice the pre-crisis level, the Labor Department said in its monthly payroll report, released Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expected the report to show that unemployment fell to 5.8% and the economy added 978,000 jobs. – Kristen Altus, “US Labor Secretary on Why Americans Aren’t Going Back to Work,” www.foxbusiness.com/, May 7, 2021.

In any event, a pullback in world equities didn’t start last week, the first week of May– the first week of the month that investors love to chant, “Sell in May and go away.” The only problem is that “selling in May and going away” for more than a month hasn’t worked since 2015. It used to be that you could sell in May and return in October and not miss much. But that hasn’t been the case for several years now. Maybe it will return this year because we have an intermediate-term market cycle that is due, which we will discuss at length in the monthly MMA Cycles Report that comes out this week, and the “Mid-Year Market Review” webinar that will take place May 22 (see “Announcements” below). Continue reading…