Merriman Market Analyst
Free Weekly Forecast
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 29, 2024 ©
January 26, 2024
REVIEW The US economy continued its seemingly unstoppable ascent out of the pandemic recession and its inflationary aftermath, further burying wrong calls of recession by posting fourth-quarter growth numbers that crushed forecasts. The economy’s main growth engine—personal spending—rose at a 2.8% rate while business investment and housing also helped fuel...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 22, 2024 ©
January 19, 2024
REVIEW “Fortunately, the Congressional Budget Office provides a monthly budget update and recently reported: The federal budget deficit totaled $509 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $87 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 15, 2024 ©
January 12, 2024
NOTE: U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. REVIEW Americans aren’t in the clear yet. The consumer-price index increased 3.4% from a year earlier in December, the Labor Department said Thursday. The acceleration from November’s 3.1% advance shows inflation isn’t fully beaten. Gwynn...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 8, 2024 ©
January 5, 2024
REVIEW The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. That was larger than November’s gain of 173,000, and better than forecasters were expecting. For all of 2023, employers added 2.7 million jobs, a slowdown from 4.8 million in 2022, but a better gain than in...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 25, 2023 ©
December 22, 2023
NOTE: There will be no weekly column next week. This will be our last column of 2023. I will be sending out a letter of thanks and appreciation to everyone on our list, discussing a lot of things that are on my mind as we enter the critical election year...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 18, 2023 ©
December 15, 2023
REVIEW This week, it (the Fed) pivoted. “You’re getting now back to the point where both mandates (Inflation and employment) are important,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday after the central bank’s meeting. This pivot means the Fed is ready to backstop the economic recovery. It doesn’t rule out...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 11, 2023 ©
December 8, 2023
REVIEW Employers added a seasonally adjusted 199,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, slower than earlier in the year but consistent with gains before the pandemic. November’s job gain was roughly 169,000, slightly cooler than 180,000 in October. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. It had climbed to...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 4, 2023 ©
December 1, 2023
REVIEW A week’s long rally in stocks and government bonds has shown no signs of slowing down. The Dow rose for the fifth consecutive week, its longest winning streak since 2021. The S&P 500 jumped to its highest closing level since March 2022 after setting a new yearly high on...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 27, 2023 ©
November 24, 2023
REVIEW The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday, as the major averages notched a four-week winning streak. The moves come as Treasury yields this week hit multi-month lows on hope inflation is cooling and the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates. The benchmark rate was up 6 basis...
Read MoreMMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 20, 2023 ©
November 17, 2023
NOTE: U.S. markets will be closed Thursday, November 23, in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. REVIEW The U.S. economy is approaching what most economists had thought either unlikely or impossible: inflation returning to its prepandemic norm without a recession or even much economic weakness, a so-called soft landing. Six months...
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