Free Weekly Forecast
January 25, 2020
Stocks fell on Friday after the second U.S. case of the deadly coronavirus was confirmed, stoking concerns over the sickness’ impact on the global economy. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Drops 250 Points After a Second US Coronavirus is Confirmed,” www.cnbc.com, January 24, 2020.
Oil is on track for its worst week since May as the coronavirus outbreak continues to pressure prices. A slowdown in China’s economy would impact demand because China is the world’s largest crude oil importer. China is also the second-largest oil consumer, behind the United States. On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.8%, or $1.53, to $54.06, the lowest level since Nov. 1. – Pippa Stevens, “Crude Oil Drops the Most Since May on Fears Coronavirus Will Hit Growth,” www.cnbc.com, January 24, 2020.
January 17, 2020
Stock markets were up sharply last week, with several making new all-time or multi-year highs. This was more a reflection of the bullish side of Uranus turning direct on January 10 than it was of the Saturn/Pluto conjunction on January 12. As readers know, a strong Uranus signature can coincide with a reversal of the trend, or a breakout and acceleration of the trend. No resistance or support line is safe under a prominent Uranus signature, fir Uranus just lives to break through any boundaries or limits. In this case, it broke through resistance to new all-time highs in the U.S., Australia, India, and Switzerland. The Netherlands AEX also moves to a new 18-year high, while the DAX of Germany and Nikkei of Japan are closing in on either new all-time records or multi-year highs.
Of course, such strong market moves are usually the result of strong economic or political news. And last week exhibited a dual dose of good economic news with the trade pact signings of the United States between its neighbors (USMC) and China.
January 10, 2020
NOTE: Due to my speaking duties, and preparations for the international Saturn/Pluto conference in Zurich this weekend, this week’s column will be abbreviated. I apologize for that as I know this is a very important time, both in terms of geocosmic factors and world events.
U.S. hiring cooled in December, as the economy added 145,000 jobs, ending the decade on a weaker-than-expected note. The final payroll number of 2019 missed the estimate of 164,000 from economists surveyed by Refinitiv. Unemployment remained at 3.5 percent, a half-century low, as more people were looking for work, the Labor Department said Friday. Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose by 2.9 percent over the past year to $28.32. – Megan Henney, US Job Growth Slows in December, Ending 2019 on Weaker-Than-Expected Note,” www.foxbusiness.com, January 10, 2020.
January 03, 2020
The Pentagon said the U.S. military killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in Baghdad Friday at the direction of Trump. The attack is expected to draw severe Iranian retaliation against Israel and American interests. – Ken Martin, “Democrats Call U.S. Killing of Iranian General ‘Reckless’”, foxbusiness.com, January 3, 2020.
Welcome to a New Year, a new decade, and a new ingress of Mars into Sagittarius. As reported in this column several times in the past, the passage of Mars through Sagittarius-Capricorn has a remarkable correspondence with major crises erupting in the Middle East, and often corresponding with a period danger and threats to Israel from her neighbors, or from within.
December 27, 2019
NOTE: THERE IS NO WEEKLY COLUMN THIS WEEK. WE ARE STILL ON A HOLIDAY
However, we thought it would be a good time to review our MMA Daily subscription reports for
active traders, as we ended the year with very profitable trades on stock indices and precious metals.
REVIEW: BEST TRADES AND WORST TRADE OF THE YEAR
December 21, 2019
NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO WEEKLY COLUMN NEXT WEEK. We will return January 3. From all of us at MMA, to all of you from around the world, thank you for your support of this weekly column for the past 21 years. Best wishes for a wonderful holiday season, and a most prosperous and Happy New Year! It’s going to be a big year in terms of the cosmic patterns. Three conjunctions of the outer planets in Capricorn! As outlined in the Forecast 2020 book, it’s a year for Heroes and Villains. Be brave and honest, and choose your actions with a sense of their consequences, as a hero would.
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Markets are shrugging off the impeachment of President Donald Trump because he is not expected to be removed from office, and there should be no negative impacts on fiscal or monetary policy as a result. Investors have instead focused on recent positive developments, like the trade agreement being worked out between the Trump administration and China, which should stop some strains on the economy and earnings. “Trump needed his victories. He’s got NAFTA, we got a China deal, and we got a budget. He got all these victories while he was under impeachment,” said Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas.- Patti Domm, “Here is Why the Stock Market is Ignoring Trump’s Impeachment by the House,” www.cnbc.com, December 19, 2019.
December 14, 2019
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
President Trump has agreed to a limited trade pact with Beijing that will roll back existing tariff rates on Chinese goods and cancel new levies set to take place on Sunday as part of a deal to boost Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods and obtain other concessions. – Lingling Wei, Bob Davis, William Mauldin, and Josh Zumbrun, “U.S. Agrees to Limited China Trade Deal,” Wall Street Journal, December 13, 2019.
Not bad for a Friday the 13th. The holiday season known for “giving” was very much in evidence last week as a lot of good things happened for financial markets. For one, the Fed announced that it would leave rates steady for the indefinite future, or until inflation shows signs of rising beyond the boundaries the Fed has established as “in control” for more than just a short-term. It was an unspoken understanding that they would not move rates at all during the upcoming election year. However, they probably are not aware that between May 13 and June 25, 2020, Venus will turn retrograde, a time when they (or other central banks) often change their policies with unexpected announcements of policy changes.
December 06, 2019
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The jobs market turned in a stellar performance in November, with nonfarm payrolls surging by 266,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 3.5%, according to Labor Department numbers released Friday. Those totals easily beat the Wall Street consensus. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for solid job growth of 187,000 and saw the unemployment rate holding steady from October’s 3.6%. Average hourly earnings rose by 3.1% from a year ago. “Bottom line, America is working,” Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “These are very strong numbers.” – Jeff Cox, “Jobs Growth Soars in November,” www.cnbc.com, December 6, 2019.
November 29, 2019
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
China threatened to retaliate after President Donald Trump signed two bills into law in support of Hong Kong protesters. “China firmly opposes Hong Kong Act. We have made stern representations & strong protests to U.S.,” Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in a briefing Friday. “It is a stark hegemonic practice & a severe interference in Hong Kong affairs, which are China’s internal affairs. China will take strong counter-measures.” Investors fear the signing of these measures could complicate negotiations as a key Dec. 15 deadline approaches. If a deal is not reached by then, an additional round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products would take effect. – Fred Imbert, “China Threatens to Take ‘Strong Counter-Measures’ Against U.S. After Hong Kong Bill Signings,” www.cnbc.com, November 29, 2019.
November 22, 2019
Note: The U.S. will celebrate its Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, November 28. U.S. Markets will be closed that day.
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The trade war initiated by President Donald Trump isn’t helping, Yellen said. For the past year and a half, the U.S. and China have been lobbing tariffs back and forth on billions in goods as part of the White House’s efforts to level the global playing field and halt the theft of technology and intellectual property. “I see no sign that that’s been successful in turning around these trends,” she said of the protectionist trade actions. “These tariffs are taxes on American consumers and businesses. It’s making it more difficult and more expensive to do business, to control costs, and consumers are seeing higher prices from it.” – Jeff Cox, “Janet Yellen Says ‘There is Good Reason to Worry’ About the US Economy Sliding into a Recession,” https://www.cnbc.com, November 21, 2019.