Free Weekly Forecast
February 28, 2020
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged to a fresh record low on Friday as investors dumped riskier assets and searched for safer options amid the coronavirus outbreak. The outbreak sent investors fleeing equities in favor of Treasuries, which have traditionally been a safer alternative to stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were headed for their biggest one-week losses since the financial crisis. Yields tumbled as the Fed signaled late Friday it might be willing to support the economy if necessary. – Yun Li and Fred Imbert, “10-Year Treasury Yield Collapses to Another Record Low Below 1.12%,” www.cnbc.com, February 28, 2020.
Here’s a thought: Maybe we in the media should spend more time talking to the experts who know something and less time quoting politicians who know almost nothing about the virus but see potential gain in exploiting a health crisis. Opinion Page, “The Coronavirus Isn’t Partisan,” Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2020.
Where do you even start this weekly column after a week like this?
February 22, 2020
U.S. equity markets closed out the week on a down note as the coronavirus’ spread outside of China accelerated and investors took a cautious stance heading into the weekend. The latest figures out of China showed the number of new cases continued to slow. The National Health Commission said there were 889 new coronavirus cases and 118 deaths in the country in the 24 hours through Thursday, raising the totals to 75,465 and 2,236, respectively. “Stocks Slide, Posting Weekly Losses,” Jonathan Garber, www.foxbusiness.com, February 21, 2020.
The coronavirus outbreak ruined for investors what was a solid earnings reporting season and is casting a pall on forecasts for this quarter and the rest of this year. And now with most of the earnings season in the books, look for the latest coronavirus headlines to fill the vacuum and weigh on stocks the rest of the month.– Yun Li, “Coronavirus Fears Spoiled a Solid Earnings Season,” www.cnbc.com, February 21, 2020.
February 14, 2020
The federal budget deficit grew 25% in the first four months of the fiscal year… Over the 12 months that ended in January, receipts rose 6.7%, the most since February 2016. Outlays were up 8.8%, pushing the overall deficit to 1.06 trillion, a 16.4% increase from a year earlier. Kate Davidson, “Deficit Widens as Spending Hits High,” Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2020.
(Judy Shelton’s) vigorous public defense of monetary stability as a solution to the (lack of) productivity (puzzle challenges defenders of today’s orthodoxy to explain how their model is any better than a fixed standard such as the gold she advocates. They can’t do it in light of the serial disasters of the past 50 years. No wonder her nomination (to the Fed) elicited such shameful vitriol from the economics professorial and their friends in the press. Their beef with Ms. Shelton isn’t that she’s a not. It’s that she might be right. – Joseph C. Sternberg, “Why the Economics Establishment Hates Judy Shelton,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2020.
February 07, 2020
Stocks fell on Friday as worries over the coronavirus’ impact on the Chinese economy outweighed the release of the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data.. The spike in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths came as investors pored through the latest U.S. jobs report. The U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs in January. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 158,000 jobs. Wages rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, also topping expectations. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Drops More Than 250 Points,” www.cnbc.com, February 7, 2020.
“It was all bullshit. It was hell,” Trump said. “It was evil, it was corrupt, it was dirty cops, it was leakers and liars,” – ‘It Was Hell’: Trump Celebrates Impeachment Acquittal, While Ripping Democrats and Romney,” Christina Wilkie, www.cnbc.com, February 7, 2020.
January 31, 2020
Stocks fell sharply on Friday, wiping out the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gain for January, as investors grew increasingly worried about the potential economic impact of China’s fast-spreading coronavirus. The Dow dropped 650 points, or 2.3%, after Delta and American suspended all flights between China and the U.S. United Airlines announced similar measures later in the day. The Dow was also on pace for its worst day since August… Ilya Feygin, senior strategist at WallachBeth Capital, noted, “there’s fear going into the weekend. The theme coming into this year was the Fed and Trump are going to bail us out of any problems, but the virus is something neither one can do anything about. That’s a reason to become more fearful.” – Fred Imbert, “Dow Plunges 650 Points as Friday’s Sell-Off Tied to the Coronavirus Accelerates Into the Close.” www.cnbc.com, January 31, 2020.
January 25, 2020
Stocks fell on Friday after the second U.S. case of the deadly coronavirus was confirmed, stoking concerns over the sickness’ impact on the global economy. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Drops 250 Points After a Second US Coronavirus is Confirmed,” www.cnbc.com, January 24, 2020.
Oil is on track for its worst week since May as the coronavirus outbreak continues to pressure prices. A slowdown in China’s economy would impact demand because China is the world’s largest crude oil importer. China is also the second-largest oil consumer, behind the United States. On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.8%, or $1.53, to $54.06, the lowest level since Nov. 1. – Pippa Stevens, “Crude Oil Drops the Most Since May on Fears Coronavirus Will Hit Growth,” www.cnbc.com, January 24, 2020.
January 17, 2020
Stock markets were up sharply last week, with several making new all-time or multi-year highs. This was more a reflection of the bullish side of Uranus turning direct on January 10 than it was of the Saturn/Pluto conjunction on January 12. As readers know, a strong Uranus signature can coincide with a reversal of the trend, or a breakout and acceleration of the trend. No resistance or support line is safe under a prominent Uranus signature, fir Uranus just lives to break through any boundaries or limits. In this case, it broke through resistance to new all-time highs in the U.S., Australia, India, and Switzerland. The Netherlands AEX also moves to a new 18-year high, while the DAX of Germany and Nikkei of Japan are closing in on either new all-time records or multi-year highs.
Of course, such strong market moves are usually the result of strong economic or political news. And last week exhibited a dual dose of good economic news with the trade pact signings of the United States between its neighbors (USMC) and China.
January 10, 2020
NOTE: Due to my speaking duties, and preparations for the international Saturn/Pluto conference in Zurich this weekend, this week’s column will be abbreviated. I apologize for that as I know this is a very important time, both in terms of geocosmic factors and world events.
U.S. hiring cooled in December, as the economy added 145,000 jobs, ending the decade on a weaker-than-expected note. The final payroll number of 2019 missed the estimate of 164,000 from economists surveyed by Refinitiv. Unemployment remained at 3.5 percent, a half-century low, as more people were looking for work, the Labor Department said Friday. Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose by 2.9 percent over the past year to $28.32. – Megan Henney, US Job Growth Slows in December, Ending 2019 on Weaker-Than-Expected Note,” www.foxbusiness.com, January 10, 2020.
January 03, 2020
The Pentagon said the U.S. military killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in Baghdad Friday at the direction of Trump. The attack is expected to draw severe Iranian retaliation against Israel and American interests. – Ken Martin, “Democrats Call U.S. Killing of Iranian General ‘Reckless’”, foxbusiness.com, January 3, 2020.
Welcome to a New Year, a new decade, and a new ingress of Mars into Sagittarius. As reported in this column several times in the past, the passage of Mars through Sagittarius-Capricorn has a remarkable correspondence with major crises erupting in the Middle East, and often corresponding with a period danger and threats to Israel from her neighbors, or from within.
December 27, 2019
NOTE: THERE IS NO WEEKLY COLUMN THIS WEEK. WE ARE STILL ON A HOLIDAY
However, we thought it would be a good time to review our MMA Daily subscription reports for
active traders, as we ended the year with very profitable trades on stock indices and precious metals.
REVIEW: BEST TRADES AND WORST TRADE OF THE YEAR