MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 18, 2023 ©

Listen on SpotifyApple, and Amazon

Watch on YouTube

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 The United Auto Workers officially went on strike against the “Big Three” Detroit automakers early Friday, potentially imperiling an already-fragile U.S. economy. An extended work stoppage risks causing billions in damage to the economy…. Still, the strikes are limited in scope so far as the UAW seeks to preserve its $825 million strike fund, which would support a walkout for about 11 weeks by the 146,000 union members. – Megan Henney, “UAW strike Could Slam the US Economy,” www.foxbusiness.com, September 15, 2023.

“It’s the one constant in life. If you build something worth having, someone’s going to try to take it.” ­– Kevin Costner as John Dutton, in “Yellowstone,” Series 3, Paramount Pictures.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 11, 2023 ©

Listen on SpotifyApple, and Amazon

Watch on YouTube

 REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 Revisions to economic data are widespread and normal. But occasionally the revisions are so big that they upend our shared understanding of what’s going on. The problem isn’t new, but it’s getting worse. Timely data is typically based on surveys, and even companies can’t be bothered to fill in surveys any more. Early reporting of figures that are later revised away can send investors in entirely the wrong direction. It can embed an understanding of the economy that takes a long time to be corrected. At worst it can lead to the misallocation of capital and influence government policy or interest rates. – James Mackintosh, “Economic Data Lead Markets and Governments Astray,” Wall Street Journal, September 8, 2023.

North Korea-linked hackers have stolen hundreds of millions of crypto to fund the regime’s nuclear weapons programs, research shows. “In recent years, there has been a marked rise in the size and scale of cyber-attacks against cryptocurrency-related businesses by North Korea,” said TRM Labs in a June discussion with North Korea experts. – Sheila Chiang, “North Korean Hackers Have Allegedly Stolen Hundreds of Millions in Crypto to Fund Nuclear Programs,” www.cnbc.com, September 6, 2023.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 4, 2023 ©

Listen on Spotify, Apple, and Amazon

Watch on YouTube

NOTE: U.S. markets are closed this Monday, September 4, in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

 REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 Hiring cooled this summer and unemployment rose in August, signs the labor market is moderating in the face of high interest rates. U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs last month, while payrolls in June and July were revised down a combined 110,000. The monthly gain in August was well less than the average pace over the prior year, and far below the roughly 400,000 average monthly gain in 2022. The unemployment rate was 3.8% last month, up from 3.5% in July. Gwynn Guilford, ”Job Gains Eased in Summer Months, Unemployment Increased in August,” Wall Street Journal, September 1, 2023.

Imagine the planets as ships at sea. Imagine their movement through the heavens, as seen from earth (geocentric), as waves on the sea. There are eight planets in our solar system, as seen from Earth (not counting the Earth). At various times, each planet will appear to be going backwards through the heavens, which is known as its retrograde cycle. Six of the planets go retrograde at least once during the year. Venus and Mars will do so once every 19 or 26 months, respectively, while Mercury will go retrograde every 88 days or 3-4 times/year. It is not uncommon to see 1-3 planets retrograde at one time. Four is not too unusual. Five or more is considered a lot. Between August 28 through September 3, six planets will be retrograde. On September 3, Venus will turn direct, dropping it back to five. However, the next day, September 4, Jupiter will turn retrograde, making it six planets retrograde once again until September 15, when Mercury turns direct.

 

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING AUGUST 28, 2023 ©

Listen on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/2qT0FAOJJepJ1eehXpXERb?si=DfOpLCLNSza8N2hpj7Qu3Q

Watch on YouTubehttps://youtu.be/dDGJ4iUtTPY?si=T5x_t8Yokez9eYrv

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 “Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high,” Mr. Powell said. He added that the central bank will keep monetary policy at its current “restrictive level” until there is more evidence that inflation is truly whipped. – Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, “Jerome Powell Stays On His Anti-Inflation Course,” Wall Street Journal, August 26, 2023.

The BRICS group invited another six countries to join their photo opportunities. Brazil’s President Lula noted this took the group to 37% of global GDP. That ignores the obvious internal imbalance. It is like my claiming that my farm (plus Australia) is the second-largest lamb producer in the world. With economic nationalism rising as structural change sweeps the global economy, collaboration will be hard to achieve. – Dr. Paul Donovan, “Powell Speaks. Do We Really Care?” UBS morning audio comment, August 25, 2023.

It was an eventful week on many fronts. The Fed meetings at Jackson Hole, the BRICS meeting in South Africa, the “accidental plane crash” that killed Yevgeny Prigozhin, the indictment of Donald Trump and 19 others on Election Interference in Georgia, etc. And yet, the markets held their ground. The ground is shaky and certainly not yet secure. But that’s about par for the course with both Mercury and Uranus turning retrograde, while Venus is poised to end its 6 weeks of retrogradation on September 3. As financial astrologers, we look at the markets’ behavior last week and think: “Is it going to reverse or break down?”

Mars was also in opposition to Neptune last week, so you’ll have to excuse us if we see world leaders and current events exhibiting characteristics that seem passive-aggressive with a lot of bark but no bite. The same behavior seemed present in financial markets, which seemed on the brink of collapsing in many cases but then gingerly tried to mount a rebound that no one really trusted.

In the U.S., for instance, stock indices were mostly higher into mid-week when Mercury turned retrograde. It looked like they had bottomed the week before. But this is where the Trickster is at its best, getting you to think the worst is over – the bottom is in – when really it’s not quite so clear, especially when Mars is also in opposition to Neptune. They all turned south after Wednesday, with the DJIA making a new 6-week low on Friday, but the S&P and NASDAQ were still well above their lows of the prior week. And then all the indices rallied to close nicely higher on Friday. We call that a case of intermarket bullish divergence. The fact that it is happening right in the middle of four planets changing directions (Mercury, Uranus, Venus, and Jupiter) between August 23 and September 4 makes these cases of bullish or bearish divergence even more important as a signal that a reversal is taking place or about to do so. This is one of the core principles of financial astrology and how it can be used as a valuable market timing tool.

Bitcoin was another example of how astrology worked well last week. As Mercury turned retrograde on Wednesday, August 23, Bitcoin made its weekly high and low that very day. Mercury retrograde is known as a “Trickster” in financial astrology because it is often present when the market gives false buy and sell signals, or “fake outs.” It made the low first and then the high, so one would think that was a sign the market was going higher. Except it didn’t. It just flatlined the rest of the week between Wednesday’s high and low, causing traders to wonder: is this going up or down?  Like the roadrunner: Is it going this way or that way?

Mixed signals and divergence were also noted in precious metals. Silver exploded higher last week, but Gold took out its prior week’s low (Silver did not), then tried to rally but was not as explosive as Silver. Usually, if the metals are going to be bullish, Gold is the leader, not Silver. But then again, Mercury is retrograde, so conventional theories are not always followed.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING AUGUST 21, 2023 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 It was only a year ago that Beijing and Moscow touted a new world order, but things appear to be unraveling fast for their economies. While the news has been grim, the countries are responding to their economic problems in different ways. On Tuesday, China slashed a range of key interest rates to shore up its economy, aiming to reignite growth and investment. On the other hand, Russia’s central bank hiked rates by 3.5 percentage points at an emergency gathering, bringing its key rate to a total of 12%, fearing inflationary pressures that could ripple through its economy. – “New World Failure,” Seeking Alpha, August 16, 2023.

Thanks to a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates, and unrelenting growth in the national debt, interest payments are expected to triple from nearly $475 billion in fiscal year 2022 to a stunning $1.4 trillion in 2032. – Megan Henney, “The US is Paying a Record Amount of Interest on its National Debt,” www.foxbusiness.com/, August 18, 2023.

Wouldn’t you know it? I get sick and financial markets develop a hemorrhoid (a real pain in the arse). I might get better before the market does. Or maybe we both end our misery about the same time that four planets change their directions (stations) over these next two weeks. On the positive side, I had a delicious meal of gnocchi last night. I must be getting better if I am eating potatoes.

It was the same story for stock indices throughout the world. After making primary or yearly highs within a week of Venus turning retrograde on July 22, nearly all were falling precipitously to new multi-week, even yearly lows, by the end of last week. And there are still two more weeks to go before Venus turns direct on September 3.

It was not just stock indices that cratered last week. Bitcoin simply crumbled – broke support – as the Sun squared Uranus mid-week. Uranus is noted for breakouts of support or resistance. Last week, support broke. By Friday, BTC was down to 25,600, almost back to the 24,750 low of June 15, and a netherworld lower than its yearly high of 31,824 made on July 13. That was just one week before the goddess of love and financial security decided it was time to end her journey as the brightest light in the evening skies and head for her new reign as the brightest star in the pre-morning sky, a reign that officially started with last week’s conjunction to the Sun, but won’t be too apparent to the eye for a few more days. Maybe she will herald a return to the glory days that preceded the start of her retrograde cycle.

Gold and Silver got tarnished, too, as Venus began her backward motion in Leo, a sign often associated with Gold and royalty. Both metals had recently peaked on July 20 as the station began. By late last week, Gold had been down almost every day since Venus turned retrograde.

SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS

 The summer bond-market rout is delivering a windfall to savers whose rush into higher-yielding investment products is reshaping the U.S. financial system. Americans poured $36 billion into money-market funds this week, taking advantage of yields that have soared past 5%—a figure that only recently seemed like a dream for consumers and businesses shopping for a place to park their cash. – Gunjan Banerji, “Rising Yields Fatten Americans’ Pocketbooks,” Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023.

The reaction among Mr. Trump’s haters is to wonder why his supporters don’t hate him too. Mostly they tell themselves that his voters are stupid. Never does their own role in stoking Mr. Trump’s popularity occur to them. – William McGurn, “Donald Trump’s Last Hurrah,” Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2023.

Ah! Finally! The market cycles are starting to make sense under this Venus retrograde, a cycle of indecision, changing of mind, and the urge to return anything recently purchased.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING AUGUST 14, 2023 ©

Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/64sMtT3OT1lCSsogsSljh1?si=a6e77b56297d44b4

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/E7no0oNXhNA

 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

The right brain is more visual and intuitive. www.healthline.com.

Well, we know where we’re going
But we don’t know where we’ve been

  • Talking Heads and David Byrne, “Road to Nowhere,” June 10, 1985.

 It’s going to be a short column this week because I’m sick. It’s also going to be a column that’s not so much about financial markets this week because…. I’m sick.

 Now you are probably wondering: why am I sick? Maybe you are not wondering, but I am going to answer as if you were right here and asking that question. But you probably wouldn’t be right here asking that question because… I’m sick.

 But let’s imagine you are here and asking that question. Well, let me imagine that you are here asking that question because, after all, I have Neptune rising in my chart, and that can be very imaginative and intuitive. Now I’ve written before about my intuition, being that I am about as psychic as a potato. Potatoes make me sick – unless they are chips or gnocchi served in a fine-dining restaurant. But as I am in Germany -– a land where everything is made with potatoes – you may use your intuition and ability to connect the dots. You might begin to see why I am sick.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING AUGUST 7, 2023 ©

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/rYP8LiLGycA

Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7FgZ5dhiXUQsdN0heGo9rg?si=a49edcbd6efc47bf

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating weeks after President Biden and congressional Republicans came to the brink of a historic default, warning about the growing debt burden and political dysfunction in Washington. Fitch said Tuesday that the downgrade reflects an “erosion of governance” in the U.S. relative to other top-tier economies over the last two decades. Biden administration officials criticized Fitch’s decision, blaming governance problems on the Trump administration and arguing that the U.S. was not at risk of missing its debt payments. – Matt Grossman and Andrew Duehren, “Fitch Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating,” Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2023.

One of the credit rating agencies (it does not matter which) downgraded the US government from something (it does not matter what) to something else. Markets care about the fiscal position of the US and the repeated farce of the debt ceiling debacle. They do not care what credit rating agencies think about the matter. Dr. Paul Donovan, “Things Which Do Not Matter,” UBS Morning Audio Comment, August 2, 2023.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 187,000 for the month, slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000. Though the headline number was a miss, it actually represented a modest gain from the downwardly revised 185,000 for June. The unemployment rate was 3.5%, against a consensus estimate that the jobless level would hold steady at 3.6%. The rate is just above the lowest level since late 1969. – Jeff Cox, “The U.S. Economy Added 187,000 Jobs in July, Fewer than Expected,” www.cnbc.com, August 4, 2023.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JULY 31, 2023 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

Gross domestic product grew at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was faster than economists expected and above the 2% growth in the first three months of the year. – Sarah Chaney Cambon and Christian Robles, Wall Street Journal Online, July 27, 2023.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target interest rate by another quarter point to 5.25%-5.5% after a pause at its June meeting. Mr. Powell said at his post-FOMC press conference that future rate increases are possible this year if the inflation data warrants.– The WSJ Editorial Board, “Powell on Inflation: ‘We Need to Get This Done,’” Wall Street Journal,” July 26, 2023.

The Bank of Japan announced Friday “greater flexibility” in its monetary policy — surprising global financial markets. The central bank loosened its yield curve control — or YCC — in an unexpected move with wide-ranging ramifications. It sent the Japanese Yen whipsawing against the U.S. dollar, while Japanese stocks and government bond prices slid. – Silvia Amaro, “The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a policy tweak,” www.cnbc.com, July 28, 2023.

In the first week of trading under the current Venus retrograde cycle, central banks were very active. Rate hikes were initiated in the U.S. Eurozone, UK, Australia, Canada, and Norway. Japan just reported an unexpected spike in inflation, and with that, the BOJ announced it would loosen its yield curve control and long-standing negative interest rate policy. China and Viet Nam, however, are lowering rates.

Yet, with all this rate-hiking taking place with so many central banks, global stock markets continue to make or stay near yearly highs. Welcome to Venus retrograde, the planet of diplomacy, indecision, and contradiction, especially regarding interest rate-related markets like currencies. These very qualities, along with the “disruption” characteristic of Uranus in Taurus (sign of money and one of the signs ruled by Venus), have combined to create a sense of chaos and uncertainty in financial markets. It seems every couple of weeks the investment sentiment shifts from bullish to bearish and back again. Right now, it is bullish. But with Venus retrograde, do not be surprised to see another shift in sentiment shortly, and probably when investors least expect it – again.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JULY 24, 2023 ©

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

Headline inflation in Japan rose to 3.3 percent in June, outpacing the US figure for the first time in eight years and underscoring how Asia’s most advanced economy is no longer an outlier in global inflation. This increases the pressure on the Bank of Japan, which meets next week and faces calls from investors to unwind its ultra-loose monetary policy. Japan remains the world’s only central bank with negative interest rates, and any reversal of this strategy would have massive implications for global financial markets. – Kana Inagaki, “Japan’s Inflation Outpaces US Price Rises for First Time in 8 Years,” Financial Times, July 21, 2023.

Where would you like to start with the power-packed lineup of Level 1 geocosmic signatures that culminate this weekend? One source we would highly recommend for an in-depth analysis and timing of several financial markets likely to be affected would be the 4-hour recording of our July 16 Annual Mid-Year 2023 Webinar on Financial Markets. It is now available (see comments below in the Announcements).

We could start with Venus retrograde this Saturday, July 22. We identified this powerful geocosmic signature several years ago as an indicator of major policy changes by central banks of the world, which in turn have a direct effect on interest-rate related markets such as currencies and Treasuries. As noted in the quote above by the Financial Times, Japan’s latest inflation report shows prices rising faster than expected – finally! Now what will the Bank of Japan do? Will they start to hike after so many years of negative rates? Under Venus retrograde, that’s possible.

An interesting factoid is that Venus goes retrograde approximately every 19 months, or five times in eight years. And every fifth time (8th year), it happens in the same sector of the signs. When you connect those five points, it forms an almost perfect pentagram in the charts. This time it occurs in Leo, which last happened in the summer of 2015 (eight years ago). During that last passage, China re-pegged its currency vis-à-vis the U.S. Dollar, which stunned global financial markets. Japan and its central bank may be on the verge of causing similar disruptions in the global currencies markets, not to mention the escalating discussion on the possible launch of a new Gold-backed BRICS currency to compete with the U.S. Dollar for world trade transactions. So far, the currency markets have reacted very tamely to the announcement. But then again, Venus is just beginning its 42-day retrograde cycle. Like Mercury retrograde, we can expect to see whipsaws and fake outs, especially since Venus will make three passes of a waxing square aspect with Uranus (the planet of disruptions, surprises, and sudden reversals), between July and September.

Venus retrograde is not the only super-charged aspect occurring now. Mars (anger) in Virgo (workforce) has a correspondence with labor strikes. It is forming an opposition to Saturn (grievances, complaints) in Pisces (the film and entertainment world) right now, on July 20. Hollywood’s going on strike! I don’t think the world has a sense of how serious this might be. The world has never taken Hollywood seriously. This may be the lot of Pisces in general. But there is some serious money to be lost here, as well as serious cultural activities that could be lost for an extended amount of time that could make the next several months, or even years, a little more depressing than otherwise might be the case. It’s a possible turn that Saturn in Pisces could follow. With Venus retrograde also in Leo, we may be spending a lot of time watching reruns of movies we loved once upon a time. Venus retrograde in Leo likes nostalgia, going back in time when life was fun and enjoyable. Mars in Virgo, opposite Saturn in Pisces, on the other hand, is shaping up to be a “buzzkill” for movie lovers as well as movie stars, movie producers, and anyone connected to the U.S. film industry.

And then there is Barbie. Interesting that possibly the last big blockbuster movie of 2023 has to do with a walk down memory lane for millions of mothers and children, just as Venus goes retrograde in the children’s sign of Leo.

Continue reading…

MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JULY 10, 2023 ©

Please note there will be no weekly column next week ahead of our July 16 Annual Webinar on Financial Markets.

Listen on Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/merriman-market-analyst/episodes/MMA-Free-Weekly-Column-For-the-Week-Beginning-July-10–2023-e26mv2o/a-aa3oabb

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/sUUOMoIbSLY

 

REVIEW AND PREVIEW

 Employers added 209,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. Employers ramped up wages as they competed for a limited pool of workers. The gains, while strong, marked a slowdown from earlier in the year  – Sarah Chaney Cambon, “Jobs Report Shows Hot Hiring Cooled in June; Wages Rose,” Wall Street Journal Online, July 7, 2023.

While Japan is on the “down” side of the roller coaster, the euro and British pound are on the up. The euro now trades at $1.09 per dollar, roughly a year after sinking to parity for the first time in two decades. It has appreciated nearly 14% since falling below 96 U.S. cents in September. An explanation for the euro’s strength is hard to discern. – “The Global Currency Roller Coaster: The Yen is the Warning That All Is Not Well for Monetary Policy,” The Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2023.

It was a shortened holiday trading week. However, that didn’t stop financial markets from sharp and significant price action in the first week of trading following Neptune turning retrograde, a Full Moon, and the first of three passages involving Venus square Uranus between now and the end of September. Sharp reversals of recent trends suddenly erupted in several markets.

After ending the quarter on a very strong bullish note the previous week, with a  “gap up” and bullish island reversal” signal on Friday, June 30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (and other U.S. indices) suddenly reversed course. After the holiday, the DJIA “gapped down” and formed a  new “bearish island reversal” on Thursday, July 6. This bearish turn was captured nicely in a timely Special Report sent out to subscribers on Tuesday, July 4, stating, “If I were only utilizing MMA’s market timing tools (i.e., cycles studies and geocosmic factors), I would be looking for a steep decline beginning at any time. Instead of being a high, as favored in the strategies section of the weekly subscription report, we cannot dismiss the very strong possibility that the primary cycle high could be forming right now. A close below 34,122 will negate the bullish island reversal setup. That would be bearish and suggest a steep decline into….”

Continue reading…