MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 15, 2024 ©
January 12, 2024
NOTE: U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
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Americans aren’t in the clear yet. The consumer-price index increased 3.4% from a year earlier in December, the Labor Department said Thursday. The acceleration from November’s 3.1% advance shows inflation isn’t fully beaten. Gwynn Guilford and Nick Timiraos, “Inflation Edged Up in December After Rapid Cooling Most of 2023.” Wall Street Journal, January 11, 2024.
In the week that saw a New Moon in Capricorn form a favorable trine to Uranus (January 10-11) and the exalted Mars in Capricorn form a trine to the optimistic Jupiter in Taurus (January 12), several equity markets continued their surge to new all-time and multi-year highs. This was most notable in the United States (DJIA), Japan, and India. However, not all equity markets performed well. Both Hong Kong and China’s stock indices continued to trade near their yearly lows. Additionally, even in those regions where new highs occurred, other indices did not make new highs, thus creating cases of intermarket bearish divergence. Continue reading…
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 8, 2024 ©
January 05, 2024
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The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. That was larger than November’s gain of 173,000, and better than forecasters were expecting. For all of 2023, employers added 2.7 million jobs, a slowdown from 4.8 million in 2022, but a better gain than in the several years preceding the pandemic. Wages rose a healthy 4.1% last month from a year earlier and the unemployment rate in December held at 3.7%. The labor market’s slowing but steady pace during 2023, coupled with a sharp slowdown in inflation, has fueled optimism that the economy can achieve a so-called soft landing. That would mean inflation eases without a recession. Amara Omeokwe and Chip Cutter, “Job Gains Picked Up in December,” Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2024.
It’s a New Year and a new Mercury cycle. A lot has happened since our last column two weeks ago.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 25, 2023 ©
December 22, 2023
NOTE: There will be no weekly column next week. This will be our last column of 2023. I will be sending out a letter of thanks and appreciation to everyone on our list, discussing a lot of things that are on my mind as we enter the critical election year of 2024. And approach the Aries Vortex of 2025-2026.
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“If Trump is kept out of office through judicial fiat rather than being defeated in a fair election…his country will become ungovernable. It’s time to trust the voters. It is up to the people to decide who the best candidate is. Not the courts. The people. That’s Democracy 101. When any candidate is deprived of his right to run, the American people are deprived of their right to choose.” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “RFK Jr. Issues Stark Warning After Colorado Court Blocks Trump From Ballot.’” Danielle Wallace, Fox News, December 21, 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 18, 2023 ©
December 15, 2023
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This week, it (the Fed) pivoted. “You’re getting now back to the point where both mandates (Inflation and employment) are important,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday after the central bank’s meeting. This pivot means the Fed is ready to backstop the economic recovery. It doesn’t rule out a recession, but makes one much less likely. Greg Ip, “Pivot Shows Central Bank’s New Focus,” Wall Street Journal, December 14, 2023.
Mercury turns retrograde, and everyone pivots, even the Fed. But this pivot to a more accommodative tone is just setting up the conditions for 1) a better housing market, with lower rates, going into the election, and 2) another round of inflation afterwards, just as discussed in last week’s column.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 11, 2023 ©
December 08, 2023
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Employers added a seasonally adjusted 199,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, slower than earlier in the year but consistent with gains before the pandemic. November’s job gain was roughly 169,000, slightly cooler than 180,000 in October. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. It had climbed to 3.9% in October from 3.4% in April, fanning fears on Wall Street of a more rapid slowdown ahead. Often, a rise in the unemployment rate of that magnitude has coincided with the start of a recession. Amara Omeokwe and Nick Timiraos, “Economy’s Soft Landing Comes Into View as Job Growth Slowly Descends,” Wall Street Journal Online, December 8, 2023.
Neptune, in its ruling sign of Pisces, turned direct in the middle of last week (and not retrograde, as noted in last week’s column). And the week ended with Venus in opposition to Jupiter, with the Sun still transiting the middle of Sagittarius (the sign of Jupiter’s rulership). What happens when Jupiter and Neptune and their ruling signs are highlighted in the same week? Irrational euphoria or hysteria. For many of the world’s stock markets and cryptocurrencies, it was euphoria. For other global indices and Crude Oil, it was more like hysteria. With Mercury about to turn retrograde this week, it is not surprising to see one part of the world exhibiting strong rallies and another part teetering on breakdowns. Continue reading…
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING DECEMBER 4, 2023 ©
December 01, 2023
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A week’s long rally in stocks and government bonds has shown no signs of slowing down. The Dow rose for the fifth consecutive week, its longest winning streak since 2021. The S&P 500 jumped to its highest closing level since March 2022 after setting a new yearly high on Thursday. Je Wallace and Gunjan Bonerji, “Dow Finishes Above 36,000 After Notching 2023 High,” Wall Street Journal Online, December 1, 2023.
Mortgage rates have fallen more than half a percentage point over the past month, the largest four-week decline since late 2022. Home prices, meanwhile, have continued to rise to record levels. Gina Heeb, “Mortgage Rates Fall Five Weeks in Row,” Wall Street Journal, December 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 27, 2023 ©
November 24, 2023
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Friday, as the major averages notched a four-week winning streak. The moves come as Treasury yields this week hit multi-month lows on hope inflation is cooling and the Federal Reserve may be done raising rates. The benchmark rate was up 6 basis points at around 4.476% on Friday. – Hakyung Kim, Fred Imbert, “Dow Closes 100 Points Higher Friday as Major Averages Rise for a 4th Straight Week,” www.cnbc.com, November 24, 2023.
In the shortened holiday week, U.S. stock indices continued an impressive rally that began from their 50-week cycle low on October 27. Multi-week or multi-month highs were also notched in other world stock indices, except in Australia, the UK, and Hong Kong. Perhaps the most impressive stock market was Japan, where the Nikkei soared to its highest level since its all-time high in late 1989 and early 1990.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 20, 2023 ©
November 17, 2023
NOTE: U.S. markets will be closed Thursday, November 23, in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.
REVIEW
The U.S. economy is approaching what most economists had thought either unlikely or impossible: inflation returning to its prepandemic norm without a recession or even much economic weakness, a so-called soft landing. Six months ago, the consensus among economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal was that the economy would enter a recession over the next 12 months. In October’s survey, the average forecast of economists was for no recession. After Tuesday, the probability appears to have dropped further. If they are right, it would be highly unusual. In the past 80 years, the Federal Reserve has never managed to bring inflation down substantially without sparking a recession. – David Harrison and Jeffrey Sparshott, “Economy Closes In On a Soft Landing,” Wall Street Journal, November 16, 2023.
Add falling supplier prices to the good inflation news of the week. The producer-price index fell 0.5% in October from the previous month, the largest single month decline since early in the pandemic. That follows a cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report for October released on Tuesday, which showed that consumer price growth was flat from the prior month. The encouraging readings likely confirm that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates in its current cycle. – Gabriel Rubin, “More Good News on the Inflation Front.” Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2023.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 13, 2023 ©
November 10, 2023
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he and his colleagues remain steadfast in getting policy in line with their 2% inflation goal, but “we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance.” – Jeff Cox, “Powell Says Fed is ‘Not Confident’ It Has Done Enough to Bring Inflation Down,” www.cnbc.com, November 9, 2023.
Global stock indices continued their impressive rallies following their multi-month lows of October 23-30 in most cases. It may be related to the Sun/Mars conjunction of November 18. As discussed in several reports, global stock markets tend to fall at least 8% from their previous high when this aspect is within 8 degrees. That orb began about the time the Sun entered Scorpio on October 23.
MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING NOVEMBER 6, 2023 ©
November 03, 2023
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Bad news about the labor market is good news for stocks today. All three major U.S. indexes climbed Friday, helping them to their best weeks of the year. One reason: The latest jobs report showed hiring slowed. The U.S. added 150,000 jobs in October, below economists’ projections, while the unemployment rate was slightly higher than expected. That’s a sign that the economy is cooling. For investors, that suggests the Fed might stop raising interest rates. Bond yields tumbled after the report. – Anna Hirtenstein and Hannah Miao, ”U.S. Indexes Log Best Week of 2023 After Jobs Report,” Wall Street Journal Online, November 3, 2023.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. The decision marked the second consecutive meeting at which the Fed left rates unchanged after a long campaign of increases. – David Marino-Nachison, “Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged,” Wall Street Journal November 1, 2023.