NOTE: There will be no free weekly column released next week due to preparations for the February 19 “Annual Worldwide Webinar and Address on Forecast 2023 with Raymond Merriman.” See Announcements below for further details to register and ask questions. 

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President Biden boasted during his State of the Union address about cutting the deficit by a record $1.7 trillion. His putative conversion into a born-again deficit cutter is belied by this week’s Congressional Budget Office federal budget report for January, which shows the deficit has doubled in the first four months of this fiscal year. CBO reports that the budget deficit from October through January swelled to $522 billion from $259 billion in the same period last year. Receipts are tracking $43 billion lower than last year, mostly owing to reduced individual income taxes, while spending is running $220 billion higher. Wall Street Editorial Board, “Biden Tells a Deficit Fairy Tale,” February 10, 2023.

Half the lies they tell about me aren’t true. – Yogi Berra

And the Sun is not even into Pisces yet. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 13, 2023 ©

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The employment picture started off 2023 on a stunningly strong note, with nonfarm payrolls posting their biggest gain since July 2022. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 for January, above the Dow Jones estimate of 187,000 and December’s gain of 260,000, according to a Labor Department report Friday. “ The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May 1969. The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.4%. – Jeff Cox, “Jobs Report Show an Increase of 517,000 in January, Crushing Estimates as Unemployment Rate Hit 53-year Low,” February 3, 2023, www.cnbc.com.

The Federal Reserve nudged up short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage point and signaled it was on track to do so again at its meeting next month while officials consider whether and when to pause increases late this spring.  “We’re talking about a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. – Nick Timiraos, “Fed Slows Its Tightening With Quarter-Point Interest Rate Hike,” Feb 1, 2023, Wall Street Journal.

Punxsutawney Phil, the revered groundhog of Groundhog Day fame, saw his shadow on February 2. It means we will have six more weeks of winter. But don’t tell that to the stock market, which saw the S&P and NASDAQ soar well above their previous primary cycle highs of August 16. In an interesting twist, the DJIA could not exceed its current cycle high of December 1, or even its half-primary cycle high of January 13, after it had previously rallied above its August 16 high back in November. On Friday, February 3, the S&P and NASDAQ pulled back sharply, along with the DJIA. So, for Punxsutawney Phil, seeing his shadow on a sunny day, was so far the end of the stock market rally in 2023, and a set up for a case of intermarket bearish divergence in a geocosmic critical reversal date time zone. Since we are market timers, this is important.

The performance was similar in Gold and Silver. After soaring to 1975 on Thursday morning, February 2, its highest mark in several months,  Gold plunged below 1875 the next day, a loss of $100. Silver made a triple top at 24.75 on Thursday, February 2 but it was still below its most recent cycle high of 24.77 on January 3. But after Phil’s shadow appeared, Silver lost its shine and was down to 22.32 on Friday, a drop of over 2.40. That’s huge, but it fits with the transits underway now. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING FEBRUARY 6, 2023 ©

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The U.S. economy grew at a solid 2.9% annual rate last quarter but entered this year with less momentum as rising interest rates and still-high inflation weighed on demand. The October-to-December period capped a year of economic slowdown with growth of 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with a year earlier, down sharply from 5.7% growth in 2021. – Sarah Chaney Cambon “U.S. Economy Grows at Slower Pace,” Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2023.

The U.S. took action Thursday against Russian private military group Wagner Group, designating it as a significant transnational criminal organization over its actions in combat operations in Ukraine on behalf of President Vladimir Putin. – Mengqi Sun, “Wagner Group Designated by U.S. as Transnational Criminal Group,” Wall Street Journal, Jan 26, 2023.

Most world stock indices performed very well last week. Several made new highs for this year. Some even took out their highs of December, while others simply re-tested their highs made during the triple planetary stations of January 12-22. Thus, the test for the underlying primary trend continues to be a battle between the bulls and the bears. The bullish case is in need of taking out the highs of mid-December. The bearish case requires resistance in pushing back before that ceiling gives in. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 30, 2023 ©

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Retail spending fell in December at the sharpest pace of 2022, marking a dismal end to the holiday shopping season as rising interest rates, still-high inflation and concerns about a slowing economy pinched American consumers. Sales were also revised lower in November and have fallen three of the past four months. ­– Harriet Torry, “U.S. Retail Sales Fell 1.1% in December,” Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2023.

It was another very good week for Gold and Bitcoin. Each continued the rallies they began in October-November, near the time that Mars turned retrograde on October 31. All have rallied to their highest levels since then as Mars turned direct last week, along with Mercury. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 23, 2023 ©

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U.S. inflation eased in December for the sixth straight month following a mid-2022 peak as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates and the economy showed signs of cooling. The consumer-price index, a measurement of what consumers pay for goods and services, rose 6.5% last month from a year earlier, down from 7.1% in November and well below a 9.1% peak in June. –  Gwenn Guilford, “U.S. Inflation Slowed for Sixth Straight Month in December,” Wall Street Journal, Jan 12, 2023.

The federal government ran an $85 billion deficit in December, a wider shortfall than in the same month a year earlier, as the government’s debt burden nears its legal limit.  The federal deficit … widened by 12% in the first few months of the fiscal year that began in October as rising interest rates increase borrowing costs for the government. The government posted a record deficit for the month of November in 2022. The Treasury has spent $57 billion more, a 37% increase, on paying for the government’s debt so far this fiscal year than it did in the same period a year earlier, the largest source of higher government spending. The federal government is approaching the roughly $31.4 trillion limit on borrowing set by Congress. As of Tuesday, the government has borrowed roughly $31.3 trillion. – Andrew Duehren, “Federal Deficit Widened to $85 Billion in December,” Wall Street Journal, Jan 12, 2023.

In an act of gleeful revenge against all bearish pundits, Mars turning direct late last week coincided with strong rallies in several major world stock indices. The Trickster, Mercury retrograde, who is also on the loose through January 18, couldn’t be happier, because this may be his chance to enact another one of his famous fake outs. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 16, 2023 ©

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Payroll growth decelerated in December but was still better than expected, a sign that the labor market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve tries to slow economic growth. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 for the month, above the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, 0.2 percentage point below the expectation. Wage growth was less than expected in an indication that inflation pressures could be weakening. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and increased 4.6% from a year ago. – Jeff Cox, Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 223,000 in December, as Strong Jobs Market Tops Expectations,” www.cnbc.com, January 6, 2023. 

As the first week of the new year ends, it appears the Trickster is well into his natural element of sudden short-term reversals. Stock indices looked pressured, but on Friday, the U.S. payroll reports came out weak, as was expected, but the gains in wages were considerably less than expected. On the news, investors saw little reason for the Fed to stay so hawkish on interest rates related to rising inflation, so the stock market took off with the DJIA closing up 700 points, and at its highest level since the Jupiter/Uranus semi-square low of December 22-23. Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 9, 2023 ©

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That’s a wrap for 2022. Stocks closed out the year with a whimper. All three major indexes posted modest losses Friday, capping their worst year since 2008. The S&P 500 ended the year down 19%. “U.S. Stocks Close Out Worst Year Since 2008,” www.wsj.com, December 30, 2022. 

The Biden administration is planning to begin refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a senior administration official said Friday, marking the end to the massive supply releases that the White House ordered to tame the sharp price spikes earlier this year… The administration had announced in October it would set up a process to purchase oil from companies to refill the SPR at a price of $67 to $72 a barrel. – Ben Lefebvre, “Biden Administration Set to Start Refilling Oil Reserve,” Dec 16, 2022, www.politico.com. 

The level of the SPR — an emergency stockpile of crude oil managed by the Department of Energy (DOE) — declined to 375.1 million barrels last week, marking the first time it has fallen below 378 million barrels since December 1983, according to the Energy Information Administration. Prior to last week, the reserve’s lowest level since 1983 was recorded on Dec. 30, 1983, when it hit 378.3 million barrels. – Thomas Catenacci, “US Emergency Oil Stockpiles Drop to Lowest Level Since 1983,” Dec 28, 2022, www.foxbusiness.com.

We are back. And so is Mercury retrograde, otherwise known as “The Trickster.” Continue reading… MMA FREE WEEKLY COLUMN FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING JANUARY 2, 2023 ©