Free Weekly Forecast
September 10, 2021
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The producer price index for final demand jumped 8.3% year over year, according to the Labor Department. The reading was hotter than the 8.2% increase that analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting and above the 7.8% print recorded in July. The reading was the strongest since recordkeeping began in November 2010. – Jonathan Garber, “Producer Prices Surge 8.3% Annually, Fifth Straight Record Gain,” www.foxbusiness.com, September 10, 2021.
It is good to be back after a one-week absence during which I delivered a special webinar on the Chinese stock market, Gold, and Bitcoin last weekend. It went very well. Unfortunately, I cannot say the same for the U.S. government and its withdrawal from Afghanistan during the break, nor can I say the same regarding the recent data on inflation and its effect on European and American stock indices last week.
As the quote above notes, producer prices increased at their greatest rate since records began almost eleven years ago. In the U.S., stock indices fell right into the close of the week, after the S&P posted a new all-time high the previous week, on September 2, and the NASDAQ posted its new all-time high on Tuesday, September 7. This is important because the holiday weekend of September 3-7 was a two-star geocosmic critical reversal date (CRD), anchored by the Mars/Neptune opposition of September 2 and Venus/Pluto square of September 6. The high in both the S&P and NASDAQ was right there. In the case of the DJIA, its all-time high was back on August 16, so there is a triple case of intermarket bearish divergence involving an important geocosmic CRD related to the NASDAQ high of last Tuesday. Continue reading…
August 27, 2021
NOTE: Due to next Friday’s special webinar on the “Review of Gold, Bitcoin, and Chinese Markets,” there will not be an “MMA Free Weekly Column” next week. Financial and commodity markets will be closed the following Monday, September 6, in observance of the Labor Day holiday. For information on attending the September 3 webinar, please click here.
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated Friday that the central bank is likely to begin withdrawing some of its easy-money policies before the end of the year, though he still sees interest rate hikes off in the distance. – Jeff Cox, “Powell Sees Taper by the End of the Year,” www.cnbc.com, August 27, 2021.
“South Korea became the first developed economy in Asia to raise interest rates since the beginning of the pandemic, a signal that policy makers see rising household debt and inflation as bigger threats to the economy than the resurgence of COVID-19 driven by the Delta variant…. The record household borrowing came amid a rapid surge in housing prices during the pandemic like many other parts of the world.– Stella Yifan Xie, and Dasal Yoon, “South Korea Raises Rates Amid Rising Inflation, Debt,” Wall Street Journal, August 27, 2021.
Many world stock indices continued their rallies last week following lows of August 19-20. However, the rallies were not even across the globe, and they were not without concerns given the dangerous situation revolving around the miscalculated Afghanistan withdrawal process, increased cases of the Delta variant of COVID-19 prompting communities and countries to enter into lockdown again, and the onslaught of hurricanes and floods causing death and great property damage. Still, liquidity is extremely high and much of the monies continue to find their way into the stock markets of the world. Continue reading…
August 20, 2021
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
“Market narrative may thus turn more cautious, as concerns about peaking growth rates, delta variant and policy mistakes may prove headwinds, at a time when seasonality and technicals are unfavorable.” – Barclays equity strategists, “Dow Rebounds 200 Points But Closes out a Losing Week,” www.cnbc.com, August 20, 2021.
A magnitude 7.2 earthquake violently shook Haiti on Saturday morning, a devastating blow to an impoverished country reeling from a presidential assassination last month and still recovering from a disastrous quake more than 11 years ago. “Strong Earthquake Rocks Haiti, Killing Hundreds,” New York Times, August 18, 2021.
August 1–10 finds the Sun in Leo forming a T-square now to the Saturn/Uranus square, forming yet another fixed T-square. This implies more disturbances, unexpected events and disruptions, and possible difficulties caused by inclement weather (hurricanes, tornadoes, high winds, earthquakes, electrical failures, disruptions in the internet, and terrorist activities). Yet another round of unexpected events and disruptions follow when Uranus turns retrograde on August 19 (ET), followed by the Sun/Jupiter opposition the next day, August 20. Within a week of this period, Mother Nature may hemorrhage, as these are very powerful reversal signatures for global stock markets. – Raymond Merriman, Forecast 2021, page 160.
It was a typical Uranus atypical week for financial markets and global geopolitical miscues. Continue reading…
August 13, 2021
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
There has been a US consumer goods demand surge, as consumers have spent the savings they acquired against their will. Once those savings have gone, US consumers’ demand will be based off incomes, plus whatever credit they can get. But the real spending power of US income is now falling, as headline inflation exceeds income growth. This limits the power of future demand to push up prices indefinitely. Dr. Paul Donovan, “Time For An Inflation Fantasy,” UBS Morning Audio Comment, www.ubs.com/pauldonovan, August 13, 2021.
Global stocks indices are now making their move up into the spectacular full Moon-conjunct-Jupiter that takes place next weekend, August 20-21. Let’s see what happens after that Jupiterian euphoria, which will also take place with the over-excitable Uranus turning retrograde. Continue reading…
August 06, 2021
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 for the month while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. The payroll increase was the best since August 2020. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 845,000 new jobs and a headline jobless rate of 5.7%. However, estimates were diverse amid conflicting headwinds and tailwinds for the jobs market and an uncertain path ahead for the economy. Jeff Cox, “Payrolls Increase 943,000 in July as Unemployment Rate Slides to 5.4%,” www.cnbc.com, August 6, 2021.
And on that news, Gold and Silver, along with currencies, got crushed. The strong jobs report implies that inflation is a threat and the Fed will have to start tapering or raising rates to prevent an overheated economy. The specter of higher rates also raises the value of the U.S. Dollar, which is nearing its high for this year after ending a 2-week pullback. This is consistent with the political cycle as show in our Forecast books, where the US Dollar goes up under a Democrat presidency and down under a Republican White House. Gold fell over $70 and Silver nearly $2.00, following from Wednesday’s new cycle high in Gold. The report was not good news for commodities and currencies vis-à-vis the US Dollar.
But it was good news for equities, especially since the Fed has not announced that it is thinking about reducing its accommodative monetary policies any time this year. Several world stock indices recorded a new all-time high slate last week, including the DJIA, S&P, NASDAQ, plus the AEX and SMI in Europe, the ASX in Australia, and India’s NIFTY Index. Continue reading…
July 30, 2021
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The U.S. economy rose at a disappointing rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in a sign that the U.S. has escaped the shackles of the Covid-19 pandemic but still has more work to do. Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced during the April-to-June period, accelerated 6.5% on an annualized basis. That was slightly better than the 6.3% gain in the first quarter, which was revised down narrowly.– Jeff Cox, “U.S. GDP rose 6.5% last quarter, well below expectations,” www.cnbc.com, July 29, 2021.
It was another week of global divergences unfolding under the non-conventional and non-conforming character of Saturn square Uranus. Some world stock indices soared to new all-time highs last week while others crashed support, falling to multi-month lows. It’s not a level playing field, and that is probably just fine with Uranus, which gravitates towards the chaotic, but disturbing to Saturn, which prefers controls and predictability, and for everything to be in alignment. The latter is more rigid, and the former strays from “normal.” And all of the earth and its regions are not presently in alignment or agreement. There is a sense that things are going astray. Continue reading…
July 23, 2021
NOTE: I am on vacation this week, enjoying the beautiful seacoast of Croatia and Dubrovnik in particular. What a stunning and surprising part of the world! The pleasure of this vacation has been tempered considerably with the news of the devastating floods near Cologne, which is where we were just before leaving for Dubrovnik. Yet I am very moved by how many of our friends and relatives are volunteering to help the rescue effort of those who are suffering from loss of home and loved ones as a result of this natural disaster.
As a result of my week off, I have no column to present this week. However, with the Forecast 2022 pre-order season coming up in August, we share with you the “Scorecard” from Forecast 2021 as it stands so far this year. Forecast 2021 may have been the most accurate of all the Forecast Books written so far (40 years). Our research, and that of our MMTA students, continues adding to the great body of knowledge in the study of market cycles and their correlation with planetary cycles.
FORECAST 2021 (SCORECARD AS OF JULY 21, 2021
Every year gets better and better with our forecasts. Although 2021 is not yet over, several forecasts made in the 2021 book have already unfolded. We will list a few of the forecasts below as of July 21. Keep in mind these forecasts were written in October-November 2020, and published December 2020, well before 2021 got underway. Continue reading…
July 16, 2021
NOTE: I will be on vacation next week, so there will be no weekly column issued for July 26. We will likely post a chapter from the Forecast 2021 book.
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Congress is barreling toward a summer battle over spending levels as Democrats rush to craft a pair of spending bills while simultaneously addressing the debt ceiling to keep the U.S. from defaulting on its financial obligations… While testifying before Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged lawmakers to address the looming debt ceiling. “Defaulting on the national debt should be regarded as unthinkable. Failing to increase the debt limit would have absolutely catastrophic economic consequences,” Yellen said. – Megan Henney, “What Is the Debt Ceiling?” www.foxbusiness.com, July 13, 2021.
Except that the U.S. came very close to doing just that (Janet Yellen quote above) in 2010, which led to the first downgrade of the U.S. credit rating in history. That just happened to be in the previous quarter cycle phase of the 45-year Saturn/Uranus cycle. The quarter cycle happens about every 11.25 years. Here we are again, February 17-December 24, 2021. The quarter cycle before that was interesting too. It was in 1999-2000, coincident with an all-time high in the U.S. stock market that was followed by the dot-com bubble burst and another serious recession. Continue reading…
July 09, 2021
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
The Mars/Venus T-square to Saturn and Uranus coincided with a wild ride last week, as expected. Global equity markets got whacked until Friday’s recovery in the U.S. wiped all of its losses in just one day and ended up making a new cycle high. With Uranus, the keywords for financial markets are erratic, disruptive, sudden, and unexpected. Uranus is the higher octave of Mercury, and like the Trickster, its momentum can change abruptly. The major difference is that with Uranus, the price swings are usually much steeper than those exhibited under Mercury retrograde. Mercury might fall off a hill. Uranus falls off a cliff. Mercury might land on a trampoline and bounce halfway back up. Uranus will be more like a bungee cord that falls harder and then bounces all the way back up – and more. Mercury might be miscommunication and misunderstanding. Uranus is more of a revolt and revolution. Continue reading…
July 02, 2021
NOTE: Financial markets are closed in the U.S. on Monday, July 5, in observance of the Independence Day holiday.
REVIEW AND PREVIEW
Nonfarm payrolls increased 850,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 706,000 and better than the upwardly revised 583,000 in May. The unemployment rate, however, rose to 5.9% against the 5.6% expectation. The jobless rate increase came even though the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.6%. A separate figure that accounts for discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell sharply to 9.8%, with the 0.4 percentage point decline putting the so-called real unemployment rate below 10% for the first time since March 2020. – Jeff Cox, “U.S. Adds 850,000 Jobs in June, Better than Expected,” www.cnbc.com, July 2, 2021.
This week should be a strong test for the U.S. and other global stock indices that have been rising. Of most importance is the transit of Mars in Leo, in opposition to Saturn in Aquarius and square to Uranus in Taurus. The first signature occurred late last week, on July 1. It has a whopping 82% historical correlation to primary cycle (crests or troughs) within 11 trading days. The Mars/Uranus square will occur July 4 and also has a powerful 76% correlation to primary cycles within 9 trading days. With Uranus, you often get sudden, unforeseen, reversals. With Saturn, there is usually an overabundance of stress and frustration. Mars is a fast-moving planet that packs a powerful punch to any event or attitude that is willing to act aggressively. In market-speak, this translates into days of high volume activity. Price are vulnerable to large swings in short periods of time. Often an event occurs, or an unexpected announcement is made that could drive traders to take aggressive action. Continue reading…